Circular Trendlines

Here is a different outlook on this pair with new targets.

As motion is approaching the blue line higher lows are being made, with the time factor showing almost the dip down to the 3030's is almost over. The time along the curvature is more or less very close to each other as price action tries to make newer relative highs or lows. The new projection of price is around 3330 region, which translates to a strong breakout upwards.

The red support curve has been holding motion pretty strong and occasionally supporting any fake breakouts of the black circle. As long as motion is trying to get inside the black circle, which is surely doing so now, it will climb upwards to the other perimeter of the black circle, anywhere in between 5760-5780 zone.

Sustenance in the upward motion of the EUR has not been maintained along the black trendline shown, and because future motion has to penetrate through the blue curve to go upwards, and we are getting close to the pole of that curve, chances are slim that it will be able to go through the pole with the current hesitation that is being experience.

A dip to the 2960 zone is a high possibility, but since the fibonacci time limits of the 3 waves as depicted in the following post has been reached, there would not be a lower low below 2946:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post5236353

Possible action of the EUR in the next 12 hours, a slight head and shoulder formation might take place that would generate upward thrust.

Here is the view, another touch to the 3000 region is in the process of happening

Here is the view, with a thrust to start happening sooner than the EUR on the GBP/USD pair.

Back on the thread after christmas holidays,

Here is my view:

After the time for the drop from 4250 to 2945 was reached according to an earlier post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post5236353

The drop from 3080 would be an expected retracement for the rise from 2940, starting December 14th 2011. The low today at 3070 should be the first major higher low since december 14th.

An upward acceleration reminicent of what happened on October 26th 2011, should happen soon that will result in the high of 3150 being reached as the first target. Agitation around the base of the black circle or the inside perimiter of it should give rise to higher highs in the weeks to come.

The break of the 2946 low yesterday, combined with the fact that there are no major curvuture support level between 3000 and 2200 will put EUR in a downfall position for another 500-700 pips. The 78.6 and 88.6 retracements are shown and they pretty much point to the same region as well. A major horizontal support line is shown in the diagram, but because motion is within the grey zone of the red circle, then the hesitation around this line is temporarily and we will be looking at another of wave of motion downwards towards the lows of 2800 very soon.

Complementing the EUR/USD outlook is the Dollar Index which clearly shows a rise to at least 82.91 where the perimeter of the circle lies.

The situation with this pair as well does not look very promising as far as a up draft is concerned. On the smaller time frame of M5 we could expect a maximum up move of 5480, but would not choose a buy on this pair at all either. On the daily time frame a more realistic picture of the movement to the lows of 5000 is presenting itself

Daily
For this report I am not going to say up or down, and just give the limitations of the movement that is being experienced at the moment.

We had a breach of the 2940 level on the M5 chart, which is a important level as far as continuation of motion downward was concerned.

If this breach does not stop at the highs of 2900, around 2960-2980 zone, then the daily chart is telling us that we will be going upwards towards the inside perimeter of the blue circle. This is because there isnt much resistance between 2857 and 3200 that could be grounds for a strong resistance.

I refer to these types of price regions as "Empty Space" which is a price territory without any strong levels of resistance or support.

In such situations price moves very fast through such regions.

Price was at the border line of entering empty space when it breached the low of 2946, but somehow its pulling itself upwards and its avoiding that territory for now. That is why this morning I mentioned probability of lower lows.

Motion is very swift and fast when PA commits itself to traveling the full region in such situations. The only way it can prevent itself from falling into such regions is quick and fast reaction in the opposite direction, which is what is happening from the low of 2857

M30
A secondary touch to the perimeter of the red circle is the current agenda of the EUR since we had a large pole bounce from 3075 on Dec 28th and if there was any downward movement it had to continue from the drop at 3000 on Dec 30th. Failure to do so, means that the pair is seeking another level of action/reaction to go more down. The current sustanance above the 2 blue lines is providing opportunity for this pair to form a support region at 3000 level.

M15
This time frame gives the best picture overall on this pair. The continual shifting of support at motion progresses upwards within the 2 blue circles is indicative of a build up of momentum. Unfortuantely this momentum wont last beyond 3180 in the best case scenario. Motion is capped right now below the horizontal resitance line shown. It has 2 choices. It can either drop to the perimeter of the red circle and do a rise to 3120, or it should break the horizontal line very quickly and end up t either 3130 or 3190. Failure to do so, will push it back to the perimeter of the larger circle at 2930, and it would be quite questionable as to whether it will continue to go further up from there or drop lower to 2740. 2740 is the long term target of this pair on the H4 Chart

Monthly

On this chart we have the strongest support at the 2200 level, which if broken will certainly land us in the territory of 0.9500 to 1.000 range. The blue band is a very strong level that has protected this pair for the past 8 years from falling below it. It will certainly take more than 2 touches since November of 2005 to be able to break this blue curve decisively. Such a break could be the result of a major catastrophic collapse of the EUR and it will not be a slow decend. Such a collapse is still not in the picture of this pair until it reaches the 2200 and the reaction to that level is observed.

In regards to further downfall from 2700-2800 level to the 2200 level, we are at a possible level that could be grounds for a small retracement upwards, but lower time frames are pointing to the lows of 2700 and 2500 for a possible temporary reversal.

Weekly
On the weekly this pair has reached a important median line that could be grounds for a reaction upwards. If this reaction does not happen, then 2200 will be the next region to look for.

Daily
We are at a reasonably strong level at 2780 to provide a action/reaction upwards, but behaviour is not showing this to be congruent with the support levels, and any hesitation around a support level means further down move and a break of that level. Ideally we are looking for a strong dip and a bounce upwards after that. We had our dip 3080, but no strong bounce upwards, which means further down. Unless we see 2840-2850 within the next 6 hours, then that could be first signs of a move upwards, but other than that we will be dipping to the lowest curve on this time frame which is around 2470

This my post@10 November 2011
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...89#post5119889

Nice

2 Thumbs up.

You can see the crystal ball much better my friend

Thanks , Time best tool to learn us

Next Support 1.2680 where is the Gap still open since PA was been there before Months.

Since motion has been quite impulsive in the last 2 business days, the only good inidication of what is happening is on lower time frames.

On the M5 time frame we have a important Median Line for the downtrend getting broken (MedianLine1), and the uptrend motion showing signs of respecting a median line (MedianLine2), which can be strong indications of a temporary (300 pip) upward correction.

Since motion is attacking the weak part of the shown circle, chances are high that it will break it. This is also compounded by the fact that the 2760 region is not generating a strong bounce downwards that could go through MedianLine2.

A bounce downwards towards the 2720, will break the MedianLine2, but it could still be classified as the lowest limit for a buy given the fact that the boundary of the black circle lies at that level. So we could have a bounce to 2720 and then upwards again from that level. Anything below 2720 will put us back into strong bearishness below 2670

Short term trend remains bullish with a high degree of probability that 5500 and above could be reached as long as we hold ourselves above 5400

Here is a different view, slowly changing from bearish to bullish as long as we dont dip below 2720

Here is a different idea that I use from time to time, when circles and lines do not give as much information that you need.

Its using RSI and drawing circles and lines on RSI. I usually use a image editor for this purposes to draw the curves, so sometimes the curves are elliptical in nature.