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AUD/USD

  • #38,101
  • Dec 25, 2011 7:43am Dec 25, 2011 7:43am
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Did you just open your account? Generally AUD/USD spread should be less than 3 pip. It only goes above 3 pips either in

a) very thin liquidity (like right now)
b) very volatile markets (during news and when the market just opened)

Continue checking on your spread. If after new years it is still 4 pips, better find a different platform to trade with.
Thanx for advices!
It looks like spread is fixed, so I might wanna fish around for other broker. At the same time, my broker don't have On, OW or change TP,SL commissions.
I was shorting it at 1.0145 with small TP but candle wouldn't just burn down
Will probably close it tonight...
  • #38,102
  • Dec 25, 2011 8:28pm Dec 25, 2011 8:28pm
a$ is making lower lows against the TL formed from daily highs on Dec 21st and Dec 8th. despite this, it looks like a retest of 10220 is imminent. if it breaks through, there won't be must resistance until 10280 followed by a retest of daily high at 10375.

the 10220 zone should be very resistance heavy though
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Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,103
  • Dec 25, 2011 8:53pm Dec 25, 2011 8:53pm
AUD/USD may range around 1.0
  • #38,104
  • Dec 26, 2011 12:50am Dec 26, 2011 12:50am
Price is currently trapped in a key zone in AUD/USD. As you can see from the chart above, price is testing the 100 day moving average again, which coincides with the key 1.02 resistance level, and so far respecting it.

A break, retest, and then a daily close above this level and the 100 day moving average, and we should see price challenging the next minor resistance level at around 1.0370.

A failure to breach 1.0200 and the 100 day MA, and the nearest key support at 1.00 will act as a magnet. Support failure, and price should drop to the next key support level at around 0.9640.

I am uneasy to take a position at the current price level, as I am bullish AUD, and we are too close to the resistance line.

I will be looking to buy on dips around parity as long as 0.9800 holds on a daily close, which will result in me liquidating my positions and cutting my losses.

If in the case we do not get there, then a break, retest and a daily close above 1.0200 and the 100 day MA, and I will be looking to add positions as close to 1.0200 resistance turned support as possible.

Profit targets will see me closing a portion of my position at 1.0370, 1.0550 as a second target, and 1.0720 as a third target where all open AUD/USD positions are closed.
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  • #38,105
  • Dec 26, 2011 7:43am Dec 26, 2011 7:43am
Quoting fxAsylum
Price is currently trapped in a key zone in AUD/USD. As you can see from the chart above, price is testing the 100 day moving average again, which coincides with the key 1.02 resistance level, and so far respecting it.

A break, retest, and then a daily close above this level and the 100 day moving average, and we should see price challenging the next minor resistance level at around 1.0370.

A failure to breach 1.0200 and the 100 day MA, and the nearest key support at 1.00 will act as a magnet. Support failure, and price should drop to the...
how do you feel about the fact that AUD is trading near historic highs as far as the past 3 years are concerned? short term, next two to four weeks, i am bullish on AUD but from there, i think down is likely.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,106
  • Dec 26, 2011 8:16am Dec 26, 2011 8:16am
Quoting redteamgo
how do you feel about the fact that AUD is trading near historic highs as far as the past 3 years are concerned? short term, next two to four weeks, i am bullish on AUD but from there, i think down is likely.
Of course, fundamentals can change everything in a blink of an eye, according to the risk events happening around the round.

But if I was to look into my "crystal ball", I would say that it will only be a matter of time before new historic highs are posted. Even with all the going ons in Europe at the moment, the AUD is still sitting comfortably above parity against the USD even though it's one of the most sensitive currencies towards risk events.

As far as I'm concerned, BRICs and the rest of Asia are on a rapid rise at the moment. With Europe and the US floundering around aimlessly trying to solve their debt problems which should have been solved years ago, Asia is building upon the solid foundations built for years on a strong banking structure. I think it was Bloomberg which recently named OCBC (My trading account is with them ) as the world's strongest bank.

A strong Asia economy will equal a strong Australian economy, with China being Australia's largest trading partner. Analysts are saying that China are in for a fall, but I just don't see it happening. They themselves are far from realizing their true potential. With more banks and financial institutions now setting up their headquarters in the likes of Hong Kong and Singapore in order to have a share in the potential of Asia, it's only looking up for Australia.

Australia is a continent in itself, and it's far from realizing its true potential as a country. It's still a developing nation, which is self-sustaining, and have a huge range of products available for export. At a time of "crisis", its interest rates are way above the rest which makes shorting the AUD an expensive business.

If somehow Europe solves its problems faster than expected, then the "matter of time" which I talked about earlier will come much, much earlier than expected.

Though in saying all that, I'm more of a technician and trade based on what my charts tell me though I do keep the fundamentals in mind. My fundamentals are pretty rusty though I try and keep abreast of happenings around the world.

Of course, for every one thing that I mentioned, there will be ten others who will disagree. That's the beauty of the landscape of trading.
  • #38,107
  • Dec 26, 2011 8:56am Dec 26, 2011 8:56am
Quoting fxAsylum
Of course, fundamentals can change everything in a blink of an eye, according to the risk events happening around the round.

But if I was to look into my "crystal ball", I would say that it will only be a matter of time before new historic highs are posted. Even with all the going ons in Europe at the moment, the AUD is still sitting comfortably above parity against the USD even though it's one of the most sensitive currencies towards risk events.

As far as I'm concerned, BRICs and the rest of Asia are on a rapid rise at the moment. With...
I have been pondering similar thoughts the past two days. you phrased it more eloquently & clearly than I. thanks for your input.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,108
  • Dec 26, 2011 9:23am Dec 26, 2011 9:23am
Quoting redteamgo
I have been pondering similar thoughts the past two days. you phrased it more eloquently & clearly than I. thanks for your input.

at the same time, Brics has BEEN the ONLY growth story for the last 2 years of any significance, and lately I've been seeing much more negative press, and economic data out of those areas. Brasil, still on fire, but approaching a peak with lots and lots of debt etc. China........it's already appeared to have peaked right now and the loan defaults and bankruptcies are already gearing up. When this news breaks and people are forced to accept it, the equilibrium of the currencies is sure to go back at some point. The Fed can't bail out china too...
  • #38,109
  • Dec 26, 2011 10:08am Dec 26, 2011 10:08am
Quoting lolygagv2
at the same time, Brics has BEEN the ONLY growth story for the last 2 years of any significance, and lately I've been seeing much more negative press, and economic data out of those areas. Brasil, still on fire, but approaching a peak with lots and lots of debt etc. China........it's already appeared to have peaked right now and the loan defaults and bankruptcies are already gearing up. When this news breaks and people are forced to accept it, the equilibrium of the currencies is sure to go back at some point. The Fed can't bail out china too...
The Fed can't bail out China too?

You must have been living in a different world.

China is the largest foreign holder of US debt in the world.

To put China's ownership of U.S. debt in perspective, its holding of $1.2 trillion is even larger than the amount owned by American households. U.S. citizens hold only about $959 billion in U.S. debt, according to the Federal Reserve. (http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/moneym...-China-Own.htm)

The thing is, most of the Chinese debt is held by domestic banks and financial institutions, while the debts of Europe and the US are mostly held by foreign governments and institutions, which makes them more susceptible.

In comparison to China's GDP, the current debt that they have are more than manageable.

Of course, I might be totally wrong and this whole thing will blow up into pieces.

All I know is that, if China goes bankrupt, so will the rest of the world.
  • #38,110
  • Dec 26, 2011 11:23am Dec 26, 2011 11:23am
Quoting fxAsylum
The Fed can't bail out China too?
Based on my feeble understanding, hasn't the Fed's position been to devalue the debt held by china? It seems that as the USD strengthens Ben has been right there to make things "right" again
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #38,111
  • Dec 26, 2011 11:48am Dec 26, 2011 11:48am
Quoting redteamgo
Based on my feeble understanding, hasn't the Fed's position been to devalue the debt held by china? It seems that as the USD strengthens Ben has been right there to make things "right" again
I'm not quite well-informed in regards to the US' intentions on devaluing their dollar but from my understanding if they are devaluing the dollar, then the reason being to devalue the debt held by China will be nowhere near the top of the list.

Trying to boost the economy by printing more dollars, devaluing in order to boost their export markets are the first few things that come to mind. I don't come from an economics background so I'm not certain on the finer details, but the feeling I get is that there's more likelihood of China having to bail out the US, than the US having to bail out China.

The US are in a sticky situation in which as a reserve currency, devaluing the dollar by too much will cause the rest the world to get pretty worried and larger scale diversification will take place. China is already doing its share by ramping up its gold reserves, and is one of the reasons why it's been supporting the Euro the past months and years. The US cannot afford to lose its status as a reserve currency, or the repercussions could be catastrophic.

China has already started making the yuan tradable by offering yuan denominated deposits in Asia. I think the below paragraph sums everything up perfectly for me:-

Buying gold and allowing the yuan to be traded freely would definitely weaken the U.S. dollar's dominance as the international reserve currency. The move would force the U.S. government to borrow money and to run perpetual trade and budget deficits. As a reserve currency, the U.S. dollar is the default for international transactions. Being a reserve currency allows the US to borrow at low interest rates, as central banks around the world are eager to buy US government debt. (http://www.catholic.org/internationa...y.php?id=42827).

Of course, I may be completely wrong and off the track. My understanding of economics is basic at best, so if there are any economists out there, please feel free to correct me and point me in the right direction.
  • #38,112
  • Dec 26, 2011 6:14pm Dec 26, 2011 6:14pm
Quoting fxAsylum
...As far as I'm concerned, BRICs and the rest of Asia are on a rapid rise at the moment. With Europe and the US floundering around aimlessly ...
In the mid/late 90s, East+SouthEast Asian countries were enjoying double digit growth. It was widely rumored (by asians) that Europe+USA were envious of the success so much so Madeline Albright + George Soros orchestrated the great 1997 Asian Financial Crisis to negate the progress.

Currently, we are back in the same situation with Europe+USA in economic slowdown with BRICS+Asia in top gear.

Will we see something like the 97s Asian Crisis to happen to Asia again?
  • #38,113
  • Dec 26, 2011 6:35pm Dec 26, 2011 6:35pm
Quoting ragnakore
In the mid/late 90s, East+SouthEast Asian countries were enjoying double digit growth. It was widely rumored (by asians) that Europe+USA were envious of the success so much so Madeline Albright + George Soros orchestrated the great 1997 Asian Financial Crisis to negate the progress.

Currently, we are back in the same situation with Europe+USA in economic slowdown with BRICS+Asia in top gear.

Will we see something like the 97s Asian Crisis to happen to Asia again?
rarely does the same movie play again, as too many people would take advantage. Either the same sort of thing may happen with more intensity or there may be a sort of public cold war about to start. What happens when the country with the most debt, sees its market rise gloriously aswell as the dollar rise like smoke in the air? You will see what the intentions of all the cunning crims that came to settle in USA after being thrown out from england really are. You will see that it really is a big mind game and the game was rigged from the start and the crims really are winning. (evil is winning), the rest of world is the good side, US is crim, no matter what the people may think there. They may be honest ppl but the pillars that stand with the flag of the 52 states is built on corruption, lies and scandals that are about to become more public than ever because of the internet.

US was cornered and now had to resort to plan B, just take over with full disregard to the rest of the world. No wonder US is the second biggest target to terrorism attacks in the world. The quiet storm really isn't so quiet anymore as people are opening their eyes. Yes there may be a boom cycle coming but the bust will be spectacular and it shall be in our lifetime, I shall be watching sipping on some fine red wine.
  • #38,114
  • Dec 26, 2011 7:04pm Dec 26, 2011 7:04pm
my long got stopped out.... -8 pips.. lol
  • #38,115
  • Dec 26, 2011 7:21pm Dec 26, 2011 7:21pm
aud is a carry trade pair....and all of its signal depend on risk averse-risk appetite measurement.....


this is my oppinion.....huhuuhuh...it still have status like euro thatg is high yield curency status...hence aud tend to move like the euro and other high yield curencies...huhu
Bismillah
  • #38,116
  • Dec 26, 2011 7:29pm Dec 26, 2011 7:29pm
Quoting krunfx
aud is a carry trade pair....and all of its signal depend on risk averse-risk appetite measurement.....


this is my oppinion.....huhuuhuh...it still have status like euro thatg is high yield curency status...hence aud tend to move like the euro and other high yield curencies...huhu
AUD is a commodity currency and is linked more to China than anything. Not risk aversion. When NY companies go up AUD will go up because most NY companies outsource to china. When the Chinese data comes out bad, its bad for AUD but not necessarily by risk aversion.

Likewise when AUD is rising doesn't make it risk on, since EUR can be falling because of italy bonds topping 8 percent for example. S&P will rise more than anything else, which bodes well for this currency for n ow, until China is decoupled from the states which may take a few years, or after yuan/USD appreciates some more.
  • #38,117
  • Dec 26, 2011 7:41pm Dec 26, 2011 7:41pm
Quoting sidhujag
AUD is a commodity currency and is linked more to China than anything. Not risk aversion. When NY companies go up AUD will go up because most NY companies outsource to china. When the Chinese data comes out bad, its bad for AUD but not necessarily by risk aversion.

Likewise when AUD is rising doesn't make it risk on, since EUR can be falling because of italy bonds topping 8 percent for example. S&P will rise more than anything else, which bodes well for this currency for n ow, until China is decoupled from the states which may take a few years,...

hahah....of course it depent on china...and also commodity...

but from my xperience n measurement......i prefer trade it due to risk aversion-appetite measurement......

if u not accept my opinion its ok....thats is from my 5 years sumthing experience on forex environment...huhu
Bismillah
  • #38,118
  • Dec 26, 2011 8:09pm Dec 26, 2011 8:09pm
Quoting krunfx
hahah....of course it depent on china...and also commodity...

but from my xperience n measurement......i prefer trade it due to risk aversion-appetite measurement......

if u not accept my opinion its ok....thats is from my 5 years sumthing experience on forex environment...huhu
no its good I like the way you think, just giving my 2 cents. Also watch out that your understanding of risk aversion may change soon. Risk on may mean USD buying.
  • #38,119
  • Dec 26, 2011 8:15pm Dec 26, 2011 8:15pm
Quoting sidhujag
no its good I like the way you think, just giving my 2 cents. Also watch out that your understanding of risk aversion may change soon. Risk on may mean USD buying.
high risk(high yield ) curencies like euro,aud that have higher central banks rate....

usually usd is high yield curencies...but since fed cut the rate till near <0.25 it had be a low yield curencies......same like the yen....now usd buting due to risk averse and due to its econoimic indicator.....not the risk appetite news!!huhuhu...

its only my oppinion
Bismillah
  • #38,120
  • Dec 27, 2011 5:03am Dec 27, 2011 5:03am
bloody aussie, gave me negative pips today. damn it
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