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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #15,561
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:20am Dec 19, 2011 10:20am
Quoting FXMindset
Looks like we need take a holiday till earlier January?
Yes it looks like it bro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,562
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:21am Dec 19, 2011 10:21am
Quoting The Fool
serious money is all gone, dealers were remarking on thin volumes way back in late November. from what i read many fx funds have lost money in 2011, no wonder they folded early. News driven market is really just a crap shoot to trade anymore.

also, eurozone crisis fatigue has set in, i definitely feel it. How many days running will you get up early to go out and see a train wreck....when the train wreck reoccurs every day...forever and ever until the end of time...quite boring really
...and it's exactly in these thin trading times when the news can send this pair on a wild tangent... but it's like waiting for the second coming.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,563
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:25am Dec 19, 2011 10:25am
Quoting michaelnew
Super Mario really started on the wrong foot in his ECB career. Although he didn't tell anything dramatically bad, EUR plunged. So, we have a correlation here, methinks Mario talks - EUR goes down.
nah. The market didn't even flinch. The down move during his speech would have happened anyway. 30 pips up, 30 pips down, 30 pips up, etc etc. stupid technical range. A scalper's wet dream.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,564
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:26am Dec 19, 2011 10:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
nah. The market didn't even flinch. The down move during his speech would have happened anyway. 30 pips up, 30 pips down, 30 pips up, etc etc. stupid technical range. A scalper's wet dream.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,565
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:26am Dec 19, 2011 10:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
nah. The market didn't even flinch. The down move during his speech would have happened anyway. 30 pips up, 30 pips down, 30 pips up, etc etc. stupid technical range. A scalper's wet dream.
nah thats total 90 pips
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,566
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:40am Dec 19, 2011 10:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
Here is the link to the live webcast for Mario Draghi's testimony in front of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament Enjoy.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-liv...N&vodtype=Live
Listening to it now thanks.

The markets look more in balance now based on what you guys said earlier?

Stocks down, bonds and notes up with that USD up.

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?rel...98914015937500
  • #15,567
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:44am Dec 19, 2011 10:44am
Now seems like going up
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,568
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:36pm Dec 19, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting FXMindset
Now seems like going up
Still respect beautifully the descending
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,569
  • Edited 1:34pm Dec 19, 2011 1:31pm | Edited 1:34pm
Nothing has been priced in. The market has been doing basically nothing but consolidating since last week, despite the non-stop influx of bad news.

A plummet is a foregone conclusion at this point.

You don't get 10 days of SHIT news and expect the market to just shrug it all off. Everyone's just waiting for that final straw that's gonna break the camel's back.

The fall hasn't even BEGUN. Two weeks worth of crap is going to accumulate and culminate into a drop rivaling (or hopefully even surpassing) 2010's epic falls. It's amazing how many people are expecting a huge correction to occur? A correction to what? NOTHING HAS EVEN HAPPENED YET!

When will people understand that technical patterns mean absolute crap in this environment? This week-long consolidation is all the retracement there's going to be.

After the inevitable and long-awaited plunge finally begins, I wanna see how many people are still crying BULL (probably quite a few, because people never learn).
  • #15,570
  • Dec 19, 2011 1:41pm Dec 19, 2011 1:41pm
Six times tested beautifuly
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,571
  • Dec 19, 2011 1:56pm Dec 19, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting kibescorp
When will people understand that technical patterns mean absolute crap in this environment? This week-long consolidation is all the retracement there's going to be.
I disagree with you in two points:

1.- Technicals are not "crap" in this or in any "environment" (as you call it).
2.- This past week has been a consolidation, truth, but if we don't get any downgrades or bad news, we are more likely to see more short covering (due to more austerity measures and comments). Unless we get a big change, the sentiment will keep to the downside in the mid-term but this is the way the market is.
  • #15,572
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:09pm Dec 19, 2011 2:09pm
EU FInMins FAIL to agree on raising the ESM €500 bn ceiling

To me, it seems stupid to have thought they could. Because if Merkel said they wouldn't, then they wouldn't.

At least this time.
  • #15,573
  • Dec 19, 2011 2:15pm Dec 19, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting kibescorp
It's amazing how many people are expecting a huge correction to occur? A correction to what? NOTHING HAS EVEN HAPPENED YET!
I haven't seen anyone calling for a huge correction. A small one yes, but nothing major. This will happen as:
1. Traders holding short Euro positions will cover
2. Traders holding long USD positions will cover
3. Not many fresh Euro shorts or USD longs will be open until there is a correction.
4. Until the major players re-enter the markets in January, there probably will not be any lasting significant moves in either direction unless some really bad or good news comes out. Till then, it's just a technical scalper's wet dream.

Quoting kibescorp
When will people understand that technical patterns mean absolute crap in this environment? This week-long consolidation is all the retracement there's going to be.
I couldn't disagree more. Look at the 15 minute charts and look at all the scalping opportunities over the last 2 weeks. Just because there have been no significant moves, does not mean that technicals are crap.

Quoting kibescorp
After the inevitable and long-awaited plunge finally begins, I wanna see how many people are still crying BULL (probably quite a few, because people never learn).
I don't know who is crying Bull. I am certainly not and I haven't seen anyone else on this thread crying bull. However, if someone is in fact crying bull, then I agree that they will very quickly change their sentiment once this thing starts collapsing, which I expect sometime in the first week of January. Till then, we're in a range, unless the poop hits the fan.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,574
  • Dec 19, 2011 3:09pm Dec 19, 2011 3:09pm
Stop Trading, 2011 Is Already Over

This is the time of the year for trivial pursuits. Currency traders are planning lunches with brokers and going over their holiday gift lists checking them twice to make sure they didn't miss anyone.

They don't have time to figure out who Kim Jong Eun is, or to handicap the odds of Standard & Poor's pulling the trigger on its euro zone ratings threat, or even to figure what exactly European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is saying today.

Trading--actual trading--is over for the year, and that's the best explanation I can give for why currencies are so rangebound and uninteresting on a Monday that's otherwise packed with news and geopolitical risks.

Traders are viewing it this way: If you made money this year it is in the bank and if you didn't it's too late to make up for it now.

The only trading that is being done at this time of the year is back-to-back covering of corporate trades. Proprietary trading has ceased. And there are two practical reasons why that's the case.

First, in European and American banks each department closes its books sometime in December so that numbers can be reported up the line and compiled for year-end.

The process is daunting and no bank waits until the last day of the year. There's too much to reconcile; year end results would never be produced in time. So trading effectively stops with about two weeks to go.

Second, and most important to a trader, profits have already been reported to the heads of trading, the guys and gals who decide bonus compensation. Profit and loss numbers in December simply come too late to affect individual compensation in a positive way. Hence, there is no incentive to trade.

Canadian, Australian and Japanese banks have a different year-end so they have a greater motive to trade but the lack of liquidity makes taking large positions generally too risky to get aggressive.

And for U.S. and European traders, taking positions over year-end and starting the year with a loss is undesirable. So it's generally avoided.

This is the time of the year when traders test each others mettle with sports and movie trivia not what he or she might think of comments from Draghi or some unknown kid that's now in charge of nuclear power.

Incidentally, do you know who won Best Director in 1995? Answer Mel Gibson for Braveheart. Clearly Mr. Gibson has seen better days.

Hopefully you had a better year this year than he did.

Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,575
  • Dec 19, 2011 4:14pm Dec 19, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting Pbh
EU FInMins FAIL to agree on raising the ESM €500 bn ceiling

To me, it seems stupid to have thought they could. Because if Merkel said they wouldn't, then they wouldn't.

At least this time.
I think Merkel recognises that this is an unfixable problem. The underlying problem is not government spending although the media moghuls would like you to think so. It's the vast mountain of messed up housing instruments that were issued during the sub-prime era of derivative utopia. These are largely from the common law Anglo-Saxon countries, although the Continental banks bought into the instruments big time. These instruments basically are not traceable back to property title for being a mess, legally, and are essentially worthless. Propping up the banks with vast sums of liquidity to hide the annualised mess on their balance sheets is going to bankrupt countries, one by one until they crash the housing market in a bid to wipe off those balance sheet liabilities. What this will do to Europe is anyones guess. I suspect we will see a shift to hard right deregulationist economics in a bid to reduce regular government spending. Merkel is quaking in her boots at the prospect of the juggernaut of liquidations heading down the track.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #15,576
  • Dec 19, 2011 4:22pm Dec 19, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting kibescorp
When will people understand that technical patterns mean absolute crap in this environment? This week-long consolidation is all the retracement there's going to be.

After the inevitable and long-awaited plunge finally begins, I wanna see how many people are still crying BULL (probably quite a few, because people never learn).
Lol it's you again. I have done really well with technicals in this 'environment' and so have many others.

If you understood technicals you would have seen the handful of pattern set-ups across the board today.

Looking forward to your next rant, correction or not.
  • #15,577
  • Dec 19, 2011 4:30pm Dec 19, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Stop Trading, 2011 Is Already Over

Trading--actual trading--is over for the year.....

Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
You can see the decrease in volume on your charts too.

Cheers for that PT. I need to get off my terminal and carry on my study.
  • #15,578
  • Dec 19, 2011 4:32pm Dec 19, 2011 4:32pm
absololute crap? it was harmonious everytime it moves. only those that respect price can see that technicals are beautiful, harmonious, and very symphonic in its motion. never crap.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,579
  • Dec 19, 2011 5:01pm Dec 19, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting kibescorp
Nothing has been priced in. The market has been doing basically nothing but consolidating since last week, despite the non-stop influx of bad news.

A plummet is a foregone conclusion at this point.

You don't get 10 days of SHIT news and expect the market to just shrug it all off. Everyone's just waiting for that final straw that's gonna break the camel's back.

The fall hasn't even BEGUN. Two weeks worth of crap is going to accumulate and culminate into a drop rivaling (or hopefully even surpassing) 2010's epic falls. It's amazing how many...

I can see your somewhat passionate in your statements, but a lot of what you say is incorrect.

For one, the fall has not just begun. The time of it's beginning is debateable. According to my system this current downtrend started in May 2011. Is there more to come. You bet (I'm seeing a potential drop to 1.1800 or so eventually.). Will it be a sudden drop, only time will tell.

As far as no corrections, your way off. There have been numerous corrections with this current down move.

The final point is technicals work beutifully in this or any other market. The 'epic' crash of 2010 was foretold by technicals (At least with my system and I'm sure many others.).

With your next post, maybe you could be more tactful in how you present your beliefs.

Edit: Another thing, you should probably look a bit deeper into your Taoist philosophy. Maybe you'd be less critical of those you disagree with.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #15,580
  • Dec 19, 2011 5:04pm Dec 19, 2011 5:04pm
Quoting Tyoon
Lol it's you again. I have done really well with technicals in this 'environment' and so have many others.

If you understood technicals you would have seen the handful of pattern set-ups across the board today.

Looking forward to your next rant, correction or not.
So true. In fact, I found 120 pips worth of these set ups yesterday.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
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