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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #15,541
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:07am Dec 19, 2011 6:07am
fair enough i will do as you said.

I am not exactly sure what your position is, but paper money, just like magic money printing or legal counterfeiting is not a good idea. It always fails
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #15,542
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:09am Dec 19, 2011 6:09am
Quoting AaronWard
paper money has a long history and it was originally adopted because it was safer, particularly for merchants. Bandits could steal gold, but they couldn't steal a note written by one bank and honored by another. Then everybody found out that carrying around paper notes was so much easier than carrying around gold and silver so it came into wide spread use. Then governments found that printing was easier than collecting taxes for public works. Paper money is easier than gold.

Both the revolutionary war and the civil war were fought with a wholely...
Both wars were fought to advance the development of the bourgeoisie against the landowning classes (the British and then the Southern planters). They were in effect the first shots in the emergence of capital, mercantilism and early capitalism. The emergence of a currency freed of the fetters of value limits was of course natural and necessary for the underwriting of infinite growth, a fundamental in the expansion of capital. Of course, this fiat form of value, as you term it, will reach its limit in the limits to accumulation. That will lie in the exhaustion of our two major sources of value, oil and labour and is, I suspect many decades away. The current crisis is largely regional and will more likely see the emergence of forces that will bring the West in line with places such as China (the labouring classes I mean. High net worth individuals are already largely globalised.)
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #15,543
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:15am Dec 19, 2011 6:15am
Quoting the redlion
that statement is a bit inaccurate.
Lol, you should understand what I am thinking, not what I am saying. But you are quite right that my statement is inaccurate

My key points are:

1. monetary collapses are relative short lived and quite rare
2. a monetary collapse does not "just happen" but something else is typically happening in the political sphere which is a lot worse that the monetary collapse. Typically this "something else" is collapse in government or losing a major war, or both. Thus monetary collapse is much more a symptom of problems than a cause of problems.

Saying that because printing money "always fails" it is a bad idea is a bit like saying forming governments is a bad idea. There are two types of governments in history... those that have failed and those that are waiting to fail.

Fiat currency is a secondary issue and the primary one is good government. There is absolutely zero evidence that returning to the gold standard will make the government one iota more responsible or the financial system one iota more stable. In fact, I argue the reverse.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,544
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:17am Dec 19, 2011 6:17am
Interesting monday morning.

North Korea's Leader died putting a lot of uncertainty into Asian markets and a flight to safety into the US$ pushing the dollar index over 81 last night.


Futures are really mixed this morning with indices up, crude up , metals down, US bonds down, US$ up. No clear picture yet for me this morning.
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Overnight the Euro dipped below 1.30. Price is still contained in the short, mid and long term down channels. Still unable to produce a decent rally/correction out of the demand zone.
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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #15,545
  • Dec 19, 2011 6:39am Dec 19, 2011 6:39am
Quoting traider
Both wars were fought to advance the development of the bourgeoisie against the landowning classes (the British and then the Southern planters). They were in effect the first shots in the emergence of capital, mercantilism and early capitalism. The emergence of a currency freed of the fetters of value limits was of course natural and necessary for the underwriting of infinite growth, a fundamental in the expansion of capital. Of course, this fiat form of value, as you term it, will reach its limit in the limits to accumulation. That will lie in...
Yeah, I agree. The basic problem we are facing is two fold. First, labour markets are badly out of balance. Second, our economic model and government budgets are based upon the assumptions of YOY growth.

YOY growth is actually a reasonable assumption. More than anything world is driven by technological advance. When technology stops getting better, world growth will also stop. Things are vastly more complex than this, but still, technology is the prime mover. The world economy is currently growing at about 4%.

Unfortunately growth in world economy does not help governments of nations where the economy is not growing (ie Western nations). Although our economies are "officially" growing by 1-2%, unofficially are probably contracting slightly. Further, this stagnation will likely continue until Western labour markets are competitive with those of developing nations.

Budgetary practices of Western nations work fine if the economy continues to grow. They collapse if the economy stagnates for a number of years.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,546
  • Dec 19, 2011 7:15am Dec 19, 2011 7:15am
Quoting AaronWard
Yeah, I agree. The basic problem we are facing is two fold. First, labour markets are badly out of balance. Second, our economic model and government budgets are based upon the assumptions of YOY growth.

YOY growth is actually a reasonable assumption. More than anything world is driven by technological advance. When technology stops getting better, world growth will also stop. Things are vastly more complex than this, but still, technology is the prime mover. The world economy is currently growing at about 4%.

Unfortunately growth in...
I tend to think of capital as an objective force subject to immutable laws. For example, 9 out of 10 of us, subject to the vagaries of high net worth, would act in concert, whether it be investing for the best return, employing for the best return, and during times of political turmoil, incurring costs that we would otherwise not. Taken globally, these laws have concrete effects on how we evolve as a material economy, nationally, regionally and globally. Hence, I see any attempts to "rectify" these impulses of capital as largely a waste of time. They may buy you some time, but the net result is that the underlying tendencies eventually surface and prevail.

For example, I predicted at the accession into the Euro zone that the EU would one day meet its efficiency nemesis and that time has arrived. It was a region that at once sought to be social democratic and yet be available for capital. Does not work. The two cannot be sustained in the face of the efficiencies in places such as China and Europe must relent. The market will eventually dictate that a new and slimmer EU will emerge. That will happen. Europeans will have to resign themselves to working harder for less and they will. As will the rest of us.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #15,547
  • Dec 19, 2011 7:37am Dec 19, 2011 7:37am
This market is becoming quite boring now.
Usually in December I don't bother much with charts and news. However, with this Euro insolvency crisis in our faces, it is hard to turn away.
Still quite boring though. This is why you haven't heard much from me lately.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,548
  • Dec 19, 2011 7:44am Dec 19, 2011 7:44am
Hi guys,

Christmas time totally overflows me, so I am slowly closing books. I am also totally unable to analyze. So right now, I am still enjoying submarine with 3 last positions left. "Lucky"; 3767 with TP set at 2908; 3768 with TP open and waiting for January.

I may consider entering at ,32, but otherwise I aint entering.

I will be lurking around and will occasionally post, but I wont be bugging you during NY as I wont be that much helpfull.

GL,

Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #15,549
  • Dec 19, 2011 7:49am Dec 19, 2011 7:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
This market is becoming quite boring now.
Usually in December I don't bother much with charts and news. However, with this Euro insolvency crisis in our faces, it is hard to turn away.
Still quite boring though. This is why you haven't heard much from me lately.
I think that is pretty much a general sentiment so don't worry.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #15,550
  • Dec 19, 2011 7:52am Dec 19, 2011 7:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
This market is becoming quite boring now.
Usually in December I don't bother much with charts and news. However, with this Euro insolvency crisis in our faces, it is hard to turn away.
Still quite boring though. This is why you haven't heard much from me lately.
Looks like we need take a holiday till earlier January?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,551
  • Dec 19, 2011 7:54am Dec 19, 2011 7:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
This market is becoming quite boring now.
Usually in December I don't bother much with charts and news. However, with this Euro insolvency crisis in our faces, it is hard to turn away.
Still quite boring though. This is why you haven't heard much from me lately.
serious money is all gone, dealers were remarking on thin volumes way back in late November. from what i read many fx funds have lost money in 2011, no wonder they folded early. News driven market is really just a crap shoot to trade anymore.

also, eurozone crisis fatigue has set in, i definitely feel it. How many days running will you get up early to go out and see a train wreck....when the train wreck reoccurs every day...forever and ever until the end of time...quite boring really
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,552
  • Dec 19, 2011 7:58am Dec 19, 2011 7:58am
not quite things are going to spark some real flavor on EU.

it tested res... possible mark down by willing buyers to consume sellers than rise up?
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am long gbpusd looks like free movement till 1x1 angle on gu. perhaps gives the clear zoen for eurusd rise?

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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,553
  • Dec 19, 2011 8:47am Dec 19, 2011 8:47am
I'm flat on both live accounts now except for doing a little scalping E$ pair.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #15,554
  • Dec 19, 2011 9:28am Dec 19, 2011 9:28am
Considering last two years X-Max by-week volume ... it's always in lower side..I see 1.32xx on the last week.
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  • #15,555
  • Dec 19, 2011 9:34am Dec 19, 2011 9:34am
aiyoi...falling pattern neh
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #15,556
  • Dec 19, 2011 9:35am Dec 19, 2011 9:35am
Here is the link to the live webcast for Mario Draghi's testimony in front of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament Enjoy.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-liv...N&vodtype=Live
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #15,557
  • Dec 19, 2011 9:56am Dec 19, 2011 9:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
Here is the link to the live webcast for Mario Draghi's testimony in front of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
Super Mario really started on the wrong foot in his ECB career. Although he didn't tell anything dramatically bad, EUR plunged. So, we have a correlation here, methinks Mario talks - EUR goes down.
  • #15,558
  • Dec 19, 2011 9:58am Dec 19, 2011 9:58am
Things are so slow right now in the markets. Was hoping to get one more trade or two in for the year but not sure it will happen. Looking for that one hour to go into over bought condition but isn't happening yet for me to take that short. Really want to make at least 100 pips more per lot for the year to close this year out. 150 per lot preferably, but minimum 100. I guess I would take 50 also if that's all I can get lol. Anyone trading scalping right now? If I didn't have the day job I would do that at least to get closer to the target.
  • #15,559
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:04am Dec 19, 2011 10:04am
By using my knowledge of Candle sticks..I am pretty much confident of a green closing for this 4H candle
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  • #15,560
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:14am Dec 19, 2011 10:14am
At the days end it seemes things were bit noisy all the day for this pair :/
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