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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #294,981
  • Dec 17, 2011 12:00am Dec 17, 2011 12:00am
Quoting Ill-b-back
. I really think we are looking at different fib levels. I don't think a broker difference can account for 300 pips.
yeah , should be different waves /last move seeing , unable see it . I see now you are talking about correction of the last correction up move ,5480/63 ok ,lets see
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #294,982
  • Dec 17, 2011 12:09am Dec 17, 2011 12:09am
Quoting Ill-b-back
My exact experience also, makes us see what we want to see rather than what is actually happening and blind to the other possibilities. I'm still breaking free from this habit as I learn to trust my system as it evolves with the market.
I find that the way to make money in the markets is to form one's ideas based on long enough time frames so that volatility on smaller time frame, like the movements that take place within a given day, can be handled. My "idea" of where the market is heading comes from the weekly and monthly charts. The basis for my outlook is Elliot waves with various key and critical support and resistance levels (which if violated invalidate my count, but that rarely happens when working with a clear wave count on a large time frame). Anyways, the point is, I don't go revising my idea based on moment to moment fluctuations. Instead, I take my positions when the right opportunities arise, and then hold them. I don't use stops, which I view as giving money away to the markets.

The key to this technique is to gradually build up small positions over time, only adding when existing positions are well in the clear.

In a previous trading lifetime I traded with stops, always taking my lead from price movements of a given day and reacting to them, so that I was not trading an "idea" but rather the PM that I was seeing. However, my results were mixed and the stops killed my account over time. Conclusion: I wasn't good enough to trade that way, and I wasn't willing to finance my learning curve.

So I came back this time around and have slowly but surely just about doubled my balance since early October.

My overall outlook for Cable is bearish, so I'm short -- I see us heading into a 3rd wave with heavy selling pressure.
Channeling profits from the fractal universe.
  • #294,983
  • Dec 17, 2011 2:07am Dec 17, 2011 2:07am
Quoting Wavesurfer
I find that the way to make money in the markets is to form one's ideas based on long enough time frames so that volatility on smaller time frame, like the movements that take place within a given day, can be handled. My "idea" of where the market is heading comes from the weekly and monthly charts. The basis for my outlook is Elliot waves with various key and critical support and resistance levels (which if violated invalidate my count, but that rarely happens when working with a clear wave count on a large time frame). Anyways, the point is,...
Yes, we have some things in common. In previous posts I have outlined my higher timeframe outlook based on monthly and weekly charts, which is clearly bearish (in fact the most bearish in my view since the GFC). I also do not use stops as I see no point in handing money back to the market until my medium term sentiment changes. I also sometimes hedge without stops which allows me to go with an acceptable floating loss until a direction change is clear (usually with a 4 hour TL break off a daily or weekly TL) confirmed with other momentum indis.
My issue a little, is that I also like to take advantage of daily trends which maybe counter to the higher timeframe trend.
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  • #294,984
  • Dec 17, 2011 2:11am Dec 17, 2011 2:11am
Quoting PoundTrader
i have since change my view on that.
My 30min timeframe analysis changes my mind also actually (must have missed it before). 5 min timeframe has me looking to sell to 5496 first then see what happens to my trendline from there. If we creep along slowely enough, the hourly analysis might fall into line with 5590.
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  • #294,985
  • Dec 17, 2011 2:16am Dec 17, 2011 2:16am
Hmm, tough one, small bearish divergence on 1 hr but nothing on 5 min. Might wait to see if price climbs to 5590 then trade the TL break south if it happens. Very mixed between strong support and heavy selling pressure. I don't see how it can break free north past 56 under such bearish momentum, but will watch closely.
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  • #294,986
  • Dec 17, 2011 3:19am Dec 17, 2011 3:19am
Last one, I need to get a life. 5588 during Asia (by 2-3pm Aussie time if calculations correct), then watch for a TL break.
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  • #294,987
  • Dec 17, 2011 3:26am Dec 17, 2011 3:26am
ok, ok, ok, off to dinner now. We may even get to 5629 at 61.8 retrace. who knows.
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  • #294,988
  • Dec 17, 2011 4:40am Dec 17, 2011 4:40am
Alittle better I think, still practicing. Targeting 5588. If we get to 61.8 retrace this may indicate a complete trend reversal according to my lines.
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  • #294,989
  • Dec 17, 2011 7:20am Dec 17, 2011 7:20am
My charts show me that cable looks like it wants to retest the bottom of the NFP range aroound 1.5580. Plenty of resistence above that at the round number, so will see how it reacts. I think price continues to be choppy intraday, so will try to keep bias neutral and take buys or sells playing for retraces at session starts/ends depending on appropriate setups intraday, like many here can't see any real setup for a major move next week.
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  • #294,990
  • Dec 17, 2011 7:35am Dec 17, 2011 7:35am
Quoting fontu
I see it varies broker to broker & live & demo signal but they are all around 1.5195-88 61.8% fib from 1.6748/5-1.4228/30. and important thing price reacted once over it 5270 & back test 2nd time should be exact or more .yesterday it correct more than 61.8% fibs of last move down 5628-5408 not bad, exaggerated I will say .
lets see next what waiting , if any surprise or so.
fontu

i coulnd't agree more about that fibo level and bottom in 5270!

yesterday's move up to 5540 surprised me a lot. i came back at market closed and noticed the strong reaction in h1+m30 on lower TL:
price took out stops below it then closed candles above. WTF!
was strong demand below 5500 line or was it the kind of move to confuse speculators and charts?

another possibility is that there was strong power short, which now havre been covered (taking profits) so we could see less reaction at previous supply near 5550 to go for the next level 5570-80 extension 5610-20

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #294,991
  • Dec 17, 2011 7:37am Dec 17, 2011 7:37am
Quoting fontu
Then happy holiday mode , great . wish all happiness to you & family. hint at times will all expect then .me too do minimum rest of the month & still only one way to be safe . usually scary this part of the year .
fontu
thank you!
wish you then good xmas week!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #294,992
  • Dec 17, 2011 7:40am Dec 17, 2011 7:40am
Quoting gsantri
Speculators Bet Net $19 Billion Against Euro; Largest Position Since 2007


CFTC reported Friday. Contracts executed last Tuesday
.

interesting to see dollar index!
look how much power is going there.
happening since weeks n weeks n weeeks ago.

check also number of large traders long!
some one knows more than others out there since months ago!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #294,993
  • Dec 17, 2011 11:07am Dec 17, 2011 11:07am
hi I passed to eu this year, how.s cable doing falling slower?
  • #294,994
  • Dec 17, 2011 12:37pm Dec 17, 2011 12:37pm
I guess I can't help but push a technical trendline trolley, it tends to explain a lot of unusual behaviour. I'm putting in a speculative buy at market open (assuming no gap) to 5580, then a sell at 5583 (just to give some room since my broker is a crook). If we get to the 61.8 retrace I will be looking for buys at the TL break, but don't expect to see this level to be honest. We are at good support so I do expect to see a brief attempt at a higher high at 5588-90 (50 percent retrace), but no further.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #294,995
  • Edited Dec 18, 2011 1:04am Dec 17, 2011 1:18pm | Edited Dec 18, 2011 1:04am
Quoting _BBKing_
thank you!
wish you then good xmas week!
Thanks , same to you too .
whatever it does will see next open & so & will adjust quicky or wait only if any wrong , not my way to . yeah price not close at daily support 5528 at but above 2 time & very suspecious it close next nelow when retest again minimising the corrective action .a bouble bottom over tl & support at the same time a double top apparent daily tf close price correction now .
lets see .
fontu

good or great falling have started already in gbpchf pair.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...97#post5231997
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #294,996
  • Dec 17, 2011 1:37pm Dec 17, 2011 1:37pm
Once price reaches 5588, looking for a break of my 1hr TL to retest 1.54. I do also see the very real possibility of a double top at 5779 in the new year before our final descent towards 42.
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  • #294,997
  • Dec 17, 2011 2:02pm Dec 17, 2011 2:02pm
Trade plan for this last week before christmas. Up to 5590, then down to retest 54.
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  • #294,998
  • Dec 17, 2011 2:50pm Dec 17, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Trade plan for this last week before christmas. Up to 5590, then down to retest 54.
I'm looking at something similar. Entering a pivot zone, UTL and double topping the 38.2. I'm looking at 50 ret near UTL.

..
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  • #294,999
  • Dec 18, 2011 8:05am Dec 18, 2011 8:05am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Trade plan for this last week before christmas. Up to 5590, then down to retest 54.
Daily chart..Base on Standard Deviation Level
Just newbie predict..
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  • #295,000
  • Dec 18, 2011 9:37am Dec 18, 2011 9:37am
I would look for 1.6000 (double bottom)- and "W" formation looks a possibility on daily chart. However if I'm wrong and we break 5400 then it's down to 1.4500

However in these thin markets before christmas, I see further retracement. All IMHO of course!
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