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Daily Pivot Point Trades

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  • Post #101
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  • Dec 16, 2011 7:57am Dec 16, 2011 7:57am
  •  tranco
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 714 Posts
Quoting BongaBonga
Disliked
I just use the daily high, low, close. If the low was lower than the stop loss, it counts as a loss. If the high was higher than the tp, its a win. Just that basic information is all you need. With ~60% win rate and at worst a 1:1 R:R I just don't see how you can produce a graph like what you presented.

Using tick for tick data for accuracy on incorrect code is still incorrect.
Ignored
Sorry but I think you don’t know much about back testing
the size of each bar is analyzed by ticks for accuracy and the pivots are calculated by HLC/3 etc etc
 
 
  • Post #102
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:00am Dec 16, 2011 8:00am
  •  lhDT
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Follow me on twitter @Lioh_ | 492 Posts
Quoting BongaBonga
Disliked
Are these the pivot values you got?

R1 1.3066
Pivot 1.3011
S1 1.2973
Close 1.3027

Since you are GMT+1 you would need to get your pivot points at 6am since midnight EST is 0500GMT. The bias for the euro today would have been towards buying.
Ignored
R1 : 1.3061
Pivot : 1.3009
S1 : 1.29069
Almost the same.

About the bias, it is difficult to follow with buy/sell stops
#### Follow me at @LioH_ on Twitter ... ####
 
 
  • Post #103
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  • Dec 16, 2011 8:01am Dec 16, 2011 8:01am
  •  BongaBonga
  • | Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 119 Posts
Quoting tranco
Disliked
Sorry but I think you don’t know much about back testing
the size of each bar is analyzed by ticks for accuracy and the pivots are calculated by HLC/3 etc etc
Ignored
How is what I did incorrect? Saying each bar is analyzed by ticks for accuracy is not an explaination of anything.
 
 
  • Post #104
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:04am Dec 16, 2011 8:04am
  •  lhDT
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Follow me on twitter @Lioh_ | 492 Posts
Quoting tranco
Disliked
Sorry but I think you don’t know much about back testing
the size of each bar is analyzed by ticks for accuracy and the pivots are calculated by HLC/3 etc etc
Ignored
Well, there is nothing to understand with backtesting. You just test your EA that's all.
About ticks, there is no magic. You just trigger a trade with the "tick" is greater or lower than the pivot. Nothing fancy.

Here is what I use to calculate pivot, S&R.

Inserted Code
DHigh = NormalizeDouble(iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,1),4);
   DLow = NormalizeDouble(iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,1),4);
   DClose = NormalizeDouble(iClose(NULL,PERIOD_D1,1),4);
   
   Pivot = NormalizeDouble(((DHigh + DLow + DClose)/3),4);
   R1 = (2*Pivot)-DLow;
   S1 = (2*Pivot)-DHigh;
   R2 = Pivot+(R1-S1);
   S2 = Pivot-(R1-S1); 
   R3 = ( 2.0 * Pivot) + ( DHigh - ( 2.0 * DLow ) );
   S3 = ( 2.0 * Pivot) - ( ( 2.0 * DHigh ) - DLow );
#### Follow me at @LioH_ on Twitter ... ####
 
 
  • Post #105
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:13am Dec 16, 2011 8:13am
  •  tranco
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 714 Posts
Quoting lhDT
Disliked
Well, there is nothing to understand with backtesting. You just test your EA that's all.
About ticks, there is no magic. You just trigger a trade with the "tick" is greater or lower than the pivot. Nothing fancy.

Here is what I use to calculate pivot, S&R.

[code]DHigh = NormalizeDouble(iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_D1,1),4);
DLow = NormalizeDouble(iLow(NULL,PERIOD_D1,1),4);
DClose = NormalizeDouble(iClose(NULL,PERIOD_D1,1),4);

Pivot = NormalizeDouble(((DHigh + DLow + DClose)/3),4);
R1 = (2*Pivot)-DLow;
S1 = (2*Pivot)-DHigh;
R2 = Pivot+(R1-S1);...
Ignored
yes we know that
 
 
  • Post #106
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:18am Dec 16, 2011 8:18am
  •  tranco
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 714 Posts
Quoting BongaBonga
Disliked
How is what I did incorrect? Saying each bar is analyzed by ticks for accuracy is not an explaination of anything.
Ignored
Use the EA and if you find some think incorrect reply
Before you use any kind of strategy back test it first 1st in strategy tester, then in demo account and then In a real account with small lots but there exist not a blind strategy you have to know
 
 
  • Post #107
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:30am Dec 16, 2011 8:30am
  •  BongaBonga
  • | Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 119 Posts
Quoting tranco
Disliked
Use the EA and if you find some think incorrect reply
Before you use any kind of strategy back test it first 1st in strategy tester, then in demo account and then In a real account with small lots but there exist not a blind strategy you have to know
Ignored
I'll be honest with you, I'm not going to try your EA. You have been dismissive when asked for more information and that doesn't sound like what a professional would do. Leads me to believe you were dismissive of double checking the details.

I have my results on excel that pass the gut check. In other words, each and every bit of information that came out could logically be explained and double checked.

The first thing they teach you in math and science is to take a second and think about what your answer means. If you calculated your weight on the moon and it turned out you were heavier, don't blindly accept it, you obviously did something wrong.
 
 
  • Post #108
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:43am Dec 16, 2011 8:43am
  •  tranco
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 714 Posts
Quoting BongaBonga
Disliked
I'll be honest with you, I'm not going to try your EA. You have been dismissive when asked for more information and that doesn't sound like what a professional would do. Leads me to believe you were dismissive of double checking the details.

I have my results on excel that pass the gut check. In other words, each and every bit of information that came out could logically be explained and double checked.

The first thing they teach you in math and science is to take a second and think about what your answer means. If you calculated your weight...
Ignored

I get no problem if you use my EA or not I dint asked for any money or glory I just made a contribution this EA so traders don’t loose they hard earned money
I had just explain to you what we did and how we test it and that’s the method that most of the traders back test they strategy (search to find out for your self)
Now if you think that your back test by hand is better so that’s fine with me just do it
 
 
  • Post #109
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:50am Dec 16, 2011 8:50am
  •  BongaBonga
  • | Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 119 Posts
Well, glad we settled that.
 
 
  • Post #110
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 8:52am Dec 16, 2011 8:52am
  •  lhDT
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Follow me on twitter @Lioh_ | 492 Posts
Just a clarification : "if the Close (aka, the Open) was lower than the Pivot, then it was a short bias, higher meant a long bias."

You mean close the last day 23:59 or just before the start hour ?
#### Follow me at @LioH_ on Twitter ... ####
 
 
  • Post #111
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:05am Dec 16, 2011 9:05am
  •  BongaBonga
  • | Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 119 Posts
Quoting lhDT
Disliked
Just a clarification : "if the Close (aka, the Open) was lower than the Pivot, then it was a short bias, higher meant a long bias."

You mean close the last day 23:59 or just before the start hour ?
Ignored
Yes you are correct on both statements. I'm not sure what you mean by start hour though. Maybe this will help though:

At 2359 on Tuesday (essentially midnight) we get:
High 1.3050
Low 1.2950
Close 1.2975
That gives us a pivot of 1.2991

At 0005 on Wednesday the price somehow is 1.2993. What is the bias?
The bias would be to sell since the close of the day was below the pivot. And you would set your pending sell order for the pivot price with a SL at R1.

Do NOT buy/sell if the price went past the pivot. Let it come to you. Since we have decided on a sell bias the price will go past the pivot on its way back down. If it doesn't, count yourself lucky, you avoided a loss.
 
 
  • Post #112
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:13am Dec 16, 2011 9:13am
  •  lhDT
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Follow me on twitter @Lioh_ | 492 Posts
Quoting BongaBonga
Disliked
Yes you are correct on both statements. I'm not sure what you mean by start hour though. Maybe this will help though:

At 2359 on Tuesday (essentially midnight) we get:
High 1.3050
Low 1.2950
Close 1.2975
That gives us a pivot of 1.2991

At 0005 on Wednesday the price somehow is 1.2993. What is the bias?
The bias would be to sell since the close of the day was below the pivot. And you would set your pending sell order for the pivot price with a SL at R1.

Do NOT buy/sell if the price went past the pivot. Let it come to you. Since we have decided...
Ignored
OK got it thanks !
And you only take 1 trade per day ?

Example :
Bias=short. You take a short, it hits S1. You're in profit then
After a while price go up the Pivot, break down again. What do you do ? You take another short trade with S1 target ?
#### Follow me at @LioH_ on Twitter ... ####
 
 
  • Post #113
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:20am Dec 16, 2011 9:20am
  •  BongaBonga
  • | Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 119 Posts
I personally take one trade a day. That is because I can quickly start overtrading.

In the example you gave where it hit S1 and came back to the pivot and made a clear reversal pattern then there is nothing inherently wrong with selling again. But you need to always keep in mind "Why did price do that? Did the market change to where my opinion is invalid?"
 
 
  • Post #114
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 11:15am Dec 16, 2011 11:15am
  •  Cgb
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Member | 2,104 Posts
Thanks for starting the dicussion Bonga. Going to play around over the weekend with an EA and try to add some visuals to it.

Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
 
 
  • Post #115
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 11:26am Dec 16, 2011 11:26am
  •  lhDT
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Follow me on twitter @Lioh_ | 492 Posts
Quoting Cgb
Disliked
Thanks for starting the dicussion Bonga. Going to play around over the weekend with an EA and try to add some visuals to it.

Cheers!
Ignored
I'm just finished one.
Will post backtests results and reports so bonga will be able to compare with his results.
#### Follow me at @LioH_ on Twitter ... ####
 
 
  • Post #116
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 2:58pm Dec 16, 2011 2:58pm
  •  SkyzerFX
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jul 2009 | 5,375 Posts
Bonga, look, would you try S2/R2 setup instead on your spread sheet and

see if it might turn out to be even better than S1/R1?

Example: In case of a long bias take profit R2 and Stop loss S2, cause I think

with S1/R1 could be a lots of range bound SL hits especially on Cable ("GBPUSD")

Check and see maybe we going to have even less Stop Loss hits "by

accident" while ranging compare to S1/R1?..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
 
 
  • Post #117
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 3:15pm Dec 16, 2011 3:15pm
  •  lhDT
  • Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Follow me on twitter @Lioh_ | 492 Posts
Here is an EA. it's based on Steve Hopwood shell EA so there is a lot of thing to clean.
I have not coded that EA like it should be but logic is there.
I'm not an EA coder, I can just make conditions :-)
I have not coded to place buy-sellstops because sometimes the stops are too close from the current Ask/Bid/Pivot and the broker won't allow it (min stops errors)

To summarize :
- It draws Pivot, S1 & R1 based on previous day
- It draws a dashed gray line at the last close (for visual confirmation)
- Bias is calculated by last day close (at 00:00)
- Trade based on bias is triggered from the Pivot line
- TP is R1 and SL is S1 if it's a buy, opposite for a sell
- Trades begins at the time you specified in params
- Trades are closed (forced) at the end time


I completely fucked up my mt4 history folder and to be honest I don't know how to recover it so I can't really backtest.
Is it possible to backtest it and post results ?? For a long period ??
That way, Boonga can compare them with his xls files.

Thanks,
Lio
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 dpp_v1.02.ex4   91 KB | 337 downloads
#### Follow me at @LioH_ on Twitter ... ####
 
 
  • Post #118
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 9:09pm Dec 16, 2011 9:09pm
  •  gman007
  • | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Member | 16 Posts
Hi Guys,

Sorry if this may seem off topic but I have been using a similar strategy using S/R/pivots for quite some time on Gold. However, I'll also follow this thread and test your strategy on Gold and post results as I go.

I've manually backtested my method for the past 2 months, have had a great hit rate.

Using Autopivotindicator_ver5 indi only. I found this indi's calculations match movements of Gold 'almost' precisely. This indi does not show previous day S/R lines (or historic) and only shows the current day's S/R lines. This makes it difficult to historically see how price behaves when these lines are touched. Would be great if it keeps the S/R/pivots of previous days on the chart.

Also, this indi's calculations of S/R are static so the lines dont change if you swap chart timeframes. So I use 1hr which suits just fine.

The strategy I've tested has been manual as mentioned above. I place a pending buy 10 pips above an S1, pending sell 10 pips below R1, TP of 35 pips. I've seen price go over 70 pips in profit direction more than 60% of the time so a trailing profit / jumping S/L could gain you more pips. For me, I've taken the 30 pips and not let it run. The SL is set at discretion but 30 pips is way too close. I usually wait till I see where the 1hr candle closes before I close the position at a loss, if at all. I havent tested lower time frames, only 1hr and 4hr.

The above is true for all daily/weekly S1 - S3 and R1 - R3, daily/weekly pivots, not so much monthly lines but I dont ignore them either. I'm yet to refine the rules eg when pivots and S/R lines come too close to each other etc. Possibly use another filter or something, or maybe simply stay out of the market until breakout (which will separate the S/R to make them tradeable again).

Of course, and goes without say really, stay away from critical news as that would cancel out S/R lines most of the time so price could go straight through the orders and hit SL.

If there is interest in this or possibly creating an EA for it (or the EA you guys are working on can cater for this too maybe), I could provide more info on how to handle trades going in the negative direction. But for now I only wanted to share the strategy and indi that has been working well and specifically for Gold.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl gold autopivot indi.tpl   12 KB | 342 downloads
File Type: ex4 AutoPivotIndicator_ver5.ex4   32 KB | 405 downloads
 
 
  • Post #119
  • Quote
  • Dec 16, 2011 11:57pm Dec 16, 2011 11:57pm
  •  mercy seat
  • Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Member | 42,434 Posts
Quoting dove_alliance
Disliked
I would like at this time to give each of you the mere importance of the Daily Pivot:

Floor traders and other professionals who do the actual buying and selling of futures contracts and other trading arena, including FX, in the trading pits of the exchanges, generally employ very similar system for valuing the price of such contracts in the absence of significant outside influences such as indicators. This system employs a method of calculating relative value based on the price activity of the prior day. A price equilibrium point is determined...
Ignored
Jawoll ... thank you for this !

This has been the first valuable contribution about pivots in this thread here ...

#27

A good one !








;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
 
 
  • Post #120
  • Quote
  • Dec 17, 2011 3:51am Dec 17, 2011 3:51am
  •  Caillou
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 1,404 Posts
Yesterday I was out all day so impossible for me to trade.

Anyway Iīm going to test Tranco and IhDTīs EAs (thank you Tranco and IhDT for that) but usually people donīt like EAs because they tell you the truth, and sometimes it hurts.

I donīt know yet if those EAs are coded following exactly BongaBonga rules but if this is the case, and if the backtests are negative, I will move.

Thanks again to BongaBonga for your system.
 
 
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