Circular Trendlines

I have compared behaviour on a previous occasion where a turning point was observed on October 4th 2011, and given the time limitations from the above post, I am putting my explanation to possibly help in stategizing order placement for any short positions.

Here is the view...

I wouldnt have time today to post for GBP/USD, but if I do I will so later in the day

Also sorry for repeating the word "This Trendline" in the diagram, will find an alternate way to explain in future, but because of the level of detail, I had to repeat it many times

Looking at the 3 smaller circles in red where a breakout has occured in the past, we can see that withn a 45-60 degrees measurement as shown relative to the horizontal line, this breakout has happened.

In the case of the bigger red circle below this angle has not shown any movement to indicate a breakout downwards

Therefore we can conculde that price action has alternate plans. As long as support is formed along the T1 trendline, with occasional dips to the inside of the red circle we are going up, however there is one possibility that could not be eliminated, and that possibility has to show itself today.

This possibility is the break of the bigger red circle downwards towards the perimeter of the blue circle and then going up. This possibility is shown by the dotted orange arrows.

Because of this phenomenon, a breakout order at 2960 for a sell will be a risky one, since price can dip to 2930 and then reverse, so for now its better to stay out to see what happens.

The only safe trade at the moment is a buy order anywhere in between 3000-3020 with stoploss placed slightly below the red circle at 2980. Target would be 3140.

The green trendline remains to be a very important level for long term price action to reach that level.

This can only happen if the 2960 level does not get severely broken.

By a severe break we mean a break that goes to the lower T2 line and finds resistance on the inside of the blue circle. If support is formed outside of the blue circle, then that is a warning sign that its a fake move downwards.

Motion is expected to move upwards, be very jagged and reach the mids of 5800

From a time perspective:

36 * 0.618 = 22.24, very close to 23 days turning point

Other possibilities for time T1:

36+23 = 59 days
36 * 1.618 = 58 days
36 * 1.382 = 49.75 days

We are currently at the 52nd day, 6-7 more days left to reach the average of 58/59 days.
2 possibilities,

Since christmas is around the corner, we really will be having 3-4 days of actual trading days.

So either we will be rangebound within 2950 - 3050
or
we could have one more low around 2930 and the time limit is reached.
or
we should see a move up today.

So pay attention to this time limit, its telling us we are almost at the end of a move.

A retest of 2980 low could push prices temporary upwards again.

Here is the view,

EUR has chosen to respect the 2980 low for now, for a while ...

Movement is upwards towards 5730 and then the mid 5800

There were few points mentioned in a previous post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post5226654

In regards to similarities between now and what was happening at 3150 back in october of 2011.

Here is a continuation of observations being made on what is happening now.

Here is the view from M1...

Here is a different view with targets mentioned...

Taking the primary one (36 Days) as the reference point, we have

36 * 0.618 = 22.25 very close to 23 days
36 * 1.272 = 45.79 very close to 47 days

1.272 = 1.618 ^ 0.5

Also

23 * 2.09 = 48.07 again very close to 47 days

2.09 = 2 + 0.618^5

Given the powerfull thrust upwards, most probably we have hit the limitation of the downmove from 4250 at 2950

Here are new fibonacci overlap zones...

In a previous post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post5224194

There was a mention of the blue circle on the daily chart, as depicted in the diagram below emphasizing its strenght on the possibility of a reversal and the fake break of 3000 level.

Current speculation is till 3800-3900 on this time frame, but lets see what happens

If it comes up to meet that top channel line...then 1.37's may be in play again

**Great Job Kambooj...your analysis is very very intriguing!

Yes, you are right,
The Barrel Roll in this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post5236422

Could be slightly tilted to give the 3700 zone that you are talking about.

The trendline that you have mentioned is more accurate at the moment, and I havent yet figured out a way to estimate what would the position of the next Barrel be at.

Thanks

hi
im new here
very interesting thread
almost hit your second target

Here is the view from H1, looking forward for triple highs at around 3300

M1 View, shows a possible quick spike upwards.

Quick upward acceleration is in the initial stages of building up.

Bullish on this pair with a good buy setup at 5650-5670 region