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  • #572,941
  • Dec 10, 2011 10:32am Dec 10, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Chicky
Very good question.................... What's your next question?
If you have a loss then would you have enough time horizon to recover?
  • #572,942
  • Dec 10, 2011 11:29am Dec 10, 2011 11:29am
Aaron cant quote as no down arrow on phone.

Dont worry i dont average down for ever 1st position50 sl 2nd at -25 with a 25sl max loss $22.50 my average profit is >$30 so all is fine.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,943
  • Dec 10, 2011 12:13pm Dec 10, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thanks Mike, I will put it in the list of books I need to read. Right now, I need to focus on commodities, because I still dont exactly get the relation between commodities beeing denominated in USD and its value. My friend already adviced me one such a book, so this is what I am going to read next. But anyway, thanks a lot for your recommendation. I really enjoy reading and will have a closer look at it for sure.

T
If you dont have time at least read this short quote:

"The primary tool for understanding chaos theory (and complexity theory as well) is dynamic systems theory, which is used to describe processes that constantly change over time (e.g., the ups and downs of the stock market). When systems become dislodged from a stable state, they go through a period of oscillation, swinging back and forth between order and chaos. Chaos is the final state in a system's movement away from order. When a system does reach that point, the parts of a system are manifest as turbulence, totally lacking in direction or meaning. Wheatley quotes researchers John Briggs and F. David Peat explaining the process of oscillation:

Evidently familiar order and chaotic order are laminated like bands of intermittency. Wandering into certain bands, a system is extruded and bent back on itself as it iterates, dragged toward disintegration, transformation, and chaos. Inside other bands, systems cycle dynamically, maintaining their shapes for long periods of time. But eventually all orderly systems will feel the wild, seductive pull of the strange chaotic attractor.

In simpler terms, every system has the potential to fall into chaos.
The above "strange attractor" is the very same that a French mathematical physicist identified in the early 1960s. In complex systems, where all should fall apart, the attractor comes in, magnetically pulling system variables into an area and creating a visible shape. Because previous efforts to graph such phenomena could only be completed in two dimensions, this effect could not be visualized. However, computers now allow the phenomena of "strange attractors" to become visible, as images of multiple dimensions representing multiple variables can finally be created.
Part of the difficulty in studying chaos theory arises because complex systems are difficult to study in pieces. Scientists's efforts to separate pieces of dynamical systems often fall apart. The system depends on each minute part of that system and the way it interacts with all other components. As Briggs and Peat state, "The whole shape of things depends upon the minutest part. The part is the whole in this respect, for through the action of any part, the whole in the form of chaos or transformative change may manifest."



So you can not modell chaos in any computer or chart os graph because you would only see a part of it. And as chaos theory basic principle says: "small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena" which means if you make even a small mistake in your studies with charts then it is already useless in the whole system.

So that is why you have to picture it in your brain. No smarter, faster, larger and more efficient computer was ever built then the human brain. So far..
Somebody said here a week or two weeks ago that most of the sucessfull traders are lonely antisocial bastards... so in the language of chaos it means that they are good because their social life is reduced to only this forum for example, so more brain capacity can go to picture and modell chaos.
You must understand that picturing a dynamic chaotic system is not a single job. You have to run the simulation ALL TIME! in your brain. You must absorb all new information which comes along the road and you have to build it into the model and run it again and again.

This chaos theory is at the border of science and faith i think or philosophy as you may call it. But anyhow it is a new and very effectiv method of recognizing the point where the system leaves the order (trend in stock market) and goes chaotic (reaching the peak or hitting the bottom and perhaps reversal perhaps not...)

I think you or someone else has mentioned that robots are trading now more then probalby human. In this case chaos theory comes in very handy as so far no computer can modell a dynamic system as a whole only just part of it. So long term, the computer cannot win.

You wrote you have to adapt as the market is changeing. This is why i tried to speak about this. IT is not yet well known not even amongst professional traders.

Have a nice day.
'You must be the change you wish to see in the world' . Gandhi
  • #572,944
  • Dec 10, 2011 12:13pm Dec 10, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting pkimnyc
If you have a loss then would you have enough time horizon to recover?
Right into eternity
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #572,945
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:13pm Dec 10, 2011 2:13pm
Quoting Turveyd
Concious market is not worth discussing its ridiculous to the extreme.
Price is created by supply and demand. Demand comes from investors. Investors are community and eventually can behave like a crowd. Do you think that mankind isnt conscious?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,946
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:19pm Dec 10, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting disegnosys
On a weekly basis this week was 10.2%, last week 7%, and the week before that 6.1%. 4th quarter is just better time to trade. On daily basis I target 1% a day but end up anywhere between 3% to 5% a week. This overall I double my account in 5 months this year. I'm not killing it just slow and steady.
1% is my aim too, but I make sure that the concept/illusion would not obstruct my way. I am sure you know what I mean.

I feel (I go by feel, remember I am the vibrations bandit lol) that you can do that, I can judge a trader by his words.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #572,947
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:28pm Dec 10, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting phxmike
If you dont have time at least read this short quote.
That is a nice post and a nice quote from a book . I will read it for sure. Thx again Mike.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,948
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:32pm Dec 10, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Price is created by supply and demand. Demand comes from investors. Investors are community and eventually can behave like a crowd. Do you think that mankind isnt conscious?

T
I understand the theory and choas but nah.

Random from the viewers limited perspective as you dont know whos going to start buying or selling 10 seconds out.

Random is my method the more i move to random the better i trade.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,949
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:33pm Dec 10, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting mla


Nice conversation mates, vey subtle, enjoyable.

mla
This is what I posted 14 hours ago.

Sorry to say, this is not the case anymore, different level.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #572,950
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:37pm Dec 10, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting mla
1% is my aim too, but I make sure that the concept/illusion would not obstruct my way. I am sure you know what I mean.

I feel (I go by feel, remember I am the vibrations bandit lol) that you can do that, I can judge a trader by his words.

mla
30% is my aim seriously as long as your over all trading if your losing then your just gambling gamblers lose end of story.

It will sadly reduce as account grows but less than 10% wont be worth anything to me for years to come.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,951
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:39pm Dec 10, 2011 2:39pm
Quoting Turveyd
30% is my aim seriously as long as your over all trading if your losing then your just gambling gamblers lose end of story.

It will sadly reduce as account grows but less than 10% wont be worth anything to me for years to come.
30% a day? Sorry I am getting lost. Please feel free to elaborate.

My mate and I are referring to 1% a day.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #572,952
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:45pm Dec 10, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting Turveyd
Random from the viewers limited perspective as you dont know whos going to start buying or selling 10 seconds out.

Random is my method the more i move to random the better i trade.
Random is a good one method in calm days. I have already acknowledged you are scalper. I have burned one scalping account while I was trading for the first. That was right after 2008 aftermath. I did my backtesting and papertrading in 2008 and as soon as I started trading BAM. All indicators were screaming, go long Tom, go long. So I went and price kept falling and falling and fallin. I managed to burn account in 6 months or so.

Yea, I dont know who is going to buy. Thats what I am trying to find out. And it is giving me a headache.

I think this investor crowd reacts to certain points. To fundamental, technical and psychological. Fundamental are the most long term, technicals somewhat come through all aspects (as lots of banks/hedge funds are watching simmilar levels in long term and HFT is correcting shortterm imbalances) and psychological aspects prevail during times of crisis (whether long term crisis is breakup of eurozone and shortterm is shortsqueeze).

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,953
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:49pm Dec 10, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting mla
30% a day? Sorry I am getting lost. Please feel free to elaborate.

My mate and I are referring to 1% a day.

mla
Sorry on the phone per week

Got 16% on thursday though
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,954
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:55pm Dec 10, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting Turveyd
Sorry on the phone per week

Got 16% on thursday though
Yes mate, but you have to take it as an extreme case, because if you don't you are going to get in trouble later on. Marker is not in that generous mood all the time, so we need to adapt also to the non generous one.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #572,955
  • Dec 10, 2011 2:58pm Dec 10, 2011 2:58pm
Tom.

Not really a scalper more intraday swing i can hold for a day or 2.

Your never going to know whats going on or predict anything just find an edge you can trust repeat and spend the money dont over think the entire thing making it way to hard for yourself.

Its mainly banks playing head games to take our money intraday anyway. Setting up fake moves hitting sl levels then reversing why retail fails they let us feed each other bad illogical rules and they are very good at taking our money its what they train for.

Banks only make 10% per year cause they can only share what retail loses between all of them. Sadly
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,956
  • Dec 10, 2011 3:07pm Dec 10, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting mla
Yes mate, but you have to take it as an extreme case, because if you don't you are going to get in trouble later on. Marker is not in that generous mood all the time, so we need to adapt also to the non generous one.

mla
Nah methods pretty good very few losers.

Bad market conditions just dont give me setups so its not like i will have big multiple losers.

Just dont beleive in wasting time especially as i get older better to lose money trying than time not.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,957
  • Dec 10, 2011 3:09pm Dec 10, 2011 3:09pm
Quoting Turveyd
Tom.

Not really a scalper more intraday swing i can hold for a day or 2.

Your never going to know whats going on or predict anything...
Well, I will never know everything for sure. If you go to the extreme, trader should look for a weather as rainy days in a state where they mine gold could cause flood of the mine.

But I may know enough to tell general direction. Right now I think fundamentaly Euro belongs somwhere near 1,25. So I am only shorting corrections up. It works so far.

Anyway, nice chatting with you, I am going to sleep.

Cya,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,958
  • Edited 3:36pm Dec 10, 2011 3:16pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting Chanya
OH.... It was ............ nice .............. I think ........................
I am glad you like it.

If I has to give an advice to a new trader will be this:

Open a 5m chart only eurusd, no indicators, nothing and watch her for 4 hours a day, do nothing, do not trade, just watch her in every candle. Do that for 4 weeks. After 4 week trade a micro account (not demo), you can trade 1 unit, equal to one cent and learn to swim, once you float you are nearly there.

Myself the problem I had at the beginning was that I had to fill my mind with theories and concepts, more I was loosing more I was gaining knowledge in reading everything on trading, just to tame my anxiety, more I was gaining knowledge more I was loosing, why? because I was not doing the simple thing. To swim.

It took me a while to float, because I had to strip off all that nonsense that was limiting my view, and it was not easy, because mr ego came at play. But passion with help to go forward.

This is one of my favourite motto on trading:
The best trades are made without thinking, when you surpass the concepts, the knowledge and you reach the subconscious, where creativity and instincts lays and connects you to Greater Energy. Once you there you flow, there is not contraction but only expansion to enter the doctrine of vibration. Yes, trading is very much knowing yourself and the realisation of one helps the other.

Hope it helps
mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #572,959
  • Dec 10, 2011 3:19pm Dec 10, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well, I will never know everything for sure. If you go to the extreme, trader should look for a weather as rainy days in a state where they mine gold could cause flood of the mine.

But I may know enough to tell general direction. Right now I think fundamentaly Euro belongs somwhere near 1,25. So I am only shorting corrections up. It works so far.

Anyway, nice chatting with you, I am going to sleep.

Cya,

T

Weather forecasters can use that to trade crops allegely.

Forex changes its short to mid term view on every news release 3 times per day.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,960
  • Dec 10, 2011 4:18pm Dec 10, 2011 4:18pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-...epare-euro-end

It's coming. Did enjoy the EUR whilst it lasted. No I joke but Sentiment is seemingly down, while I don't feel this is gonna destroy the euro its gonna send us into 10 years of stagnant growth and EUR down, Stocks flat, bonds up and USD up. my opinion anyway.

http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-a...ing-How&id=404
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