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  • #572,921
  • Dec 10, 2011 5:36am Dec 10, 2011 5:36am
Tom, draw your S/R lines on the EU chart, we'll keep the chart / numbers and see how many S/R points have meaning over the up coming week.


By that I mean noticeable S/R and reverses from, I'd also take break outs after a pause from.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,922
  • Dec 10, 2011 5:41am Dec 10, 2011 5:41am
Quoting Turveyd
Except thats not helping anyone cause there NOT,....
I didnt exactly understood the first part. Yet scalping works, Fibo works, S/R works, even planetary cycles can work. You just need to know how to use it. There are many ways how to take money out of the market.

And ofc you are right that 90% of this thread is absolute BS, including my posts.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,923
  • Dec 10, 2011 5:45am Dec 10, 2011 5:45am
Quoting Turveyd
Tom, draw your S/R lines on the EU chart, we'll keep the chart / numbers and see how many S/R points have meaning over the up coming week.
Hehe, ofc, I still use almost the same lines. I just remap it a bit over weekend and add H1+H4 S/R. Btw, I am posting my charts pretty often so if you were really interested, you could easily have a look at my posts. It is such a feature at FF as searching for posts.

I will be posting my weekly prediction tomorrow, you can have a look. Maybe today, if I have time, but I dont see it likely as it takes some time.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,924
  • Dec 10, 2011 5:47am Dec 10, 2011 5:47am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I didnt exactly understood the first part. Yet scalping works, Fibo works, S/R works, even planetary cycles can work. You just need to know how to use it. There are many ways how to take money out of the market.

And ofc you are right that 90% of this thread is absolute BS, including my posts.

T
LOL read that, he actual believes that works LOL

No they don't, I'm giving you a chance to prove or not that S/R works, give me some numbers and we shall do the stat's.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,925
  • Dec 10, 2011 5:51am Dec 10, 2011 5:51am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hehe, ofc, I still use almost the same lines. I just remap it a bit over weekend and add H1+H4 S/R. Btw, I am posting my charts pretty often so if you were really interested, you could easily have a look at my posts. It is such a feature at FF as searching for posts.

I will be posting my weekly prediction tomorrow, you can have a look. Maybe today, if I have time, but I dont see it likely as it takes some time.

T
Barely time to fit trading in in the week let alone reading 1000's of EU thread posts, so post me your number so I've definately got them and we'll analyze them 1 evening / next weekend.

We will do the same on your prediction, try not to make it to vague can you, cause my prediction is the " the market will go up and down and charts will scroll to the left " your prediction has to beat that.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,926
  • Dec 10, 2011 5:56am Dec 10, 2011 5:56am
Quoting Turveyd
LOL read that, he actual believes that works LOL
As you may have already noticed, I am more of a philosopher, than trader.

In the stone age, people thought universe doesnt exist because they have never seen it. You, are a typical caveman. I dont say they work. I say they can work. I dont know how, but they certainly can. People are 90% made of water and look what moon does to the sea. I dont use this method, but yet again, as I have already told you several times: The fact you dont understand it doesnt mean it doesnt work.

Btw, just for fun, have you ever heard about Juglar, Kitchin, Berry or Kondratev cycles?

There are many things between earth and air we dont understand. Especially you.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,927
  • Dec 10, 2011 6:07am Dec 10, 2011 6:07am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
As you may have already noticed, I am more of a philosopher, than trader.

In the stone age, people thought universe doesnt exist because they have never seen it. You, are a typical caveman. I dont say they work. I say they can work. I dont know how, but they certainly can. People are 90% made of water and look what moon does to the sea. I dont use this method, but yet again, as I have already told you several times: The fact you dont understand it doesnt mean it doesnt work.

Btw, just for fun, have you ever heard about Juglar, Kitchin, Berry or...
And if you hadn't noticed, I'm more of a scientist / atheist, I objectively test stuff and realise there is nothing in it where as your more of a dreamer and like to believe in everything just incase. Which actually makes you the caveman, you don't now any better just like a caveman.

Yes, we are 90% water but the effect from the gravity from the moon on a LARGE MASS of fluid, is very easy to understand and well documented, jumping to a conclusion that the moon's cycle can affect us is well madness and utter utter nonesense.

Nope, I haven't, not into any new age BS, I'm a scientist.

There is very very little we do not understand, there is always a logical explanation you merely have to understand it, it's a ghost or gods will or any other such BS is just the simpletons answer to everything cause that's easier to understand than the truth / science.


There was a time where people where becoming more and more like me, but alas these days people are getting dumber and it's deemed fashionable to be like you, 40% of people believe in ghosts these days thanks to brain dead made up TV.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,928
  • Dec 10, 2011 6:17am Dec 10, 2011 6:17am
Quoting Turveyd
Tom, draw your S/R lines on the EU chart, we'll keep the chart / numbers and see how many S/R points have meaning over the up coming week.


By that I mean noticeable S/R and reverses from, I'd also take break outs after a pause from.
Hi Turveyd,

Why do you think S/R lines make any meaning? How do they help you with your trade? You will not know if the S or R will hold with or without price action. I am asking because in my opinion, trading S/R is like guessing or gambling, they are nothing useful for me. What do you think?

Thanks
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #572,929
  • Dec 10, 2011 6:26am Dec 10, 2011 6:26am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
That may the reason of our debate. You, beeing scientist. Me, beeing philosopher.

Yet, unlike you, I am philosopher who studied mathematics and economy. So I have tried to look into your field. Yet you are absolutely unable to look into mine. You are just stuck on place scientist who doesn believe anything he cant count. But seriously, can you count how brain works? Nope, you cant. Science has its limits and you as a scientist are unable to move any further out of your scientific measurable field. I wonder if you are so stuck that I wont...
Thats interesting for someone who claims to have a studied mathematics you have no concept of statistics or any science, I'm a programmer by trade but I do extensive work with complicated math's and stat's, I've been trading for 15years and have a deep grounding in economy, I've just moves away from that area many years ago.

Yet again, don't assume anything about me is your best advice, I'm way way way cleverer than you will ever be and I can objectively test and prove this
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #572,930
  • Dec 10, 2011 6:43am Dec 10, 2011 6:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
As you may have already noticed, I am more of a philosopher, than trader.
cheers Tom i won't mix into this skirmish you're enjoying so noticeably ..spent a bit of time in the Bin and saw enough of that.. but your frequent references to philosophy really caught my interest.. (@Turveyd: it is a science, not an exact one though).. i've noticed you're focusing on ancient greece.. can you please elaborate, in few sentences, what exactly are you looking for, trading related? are you trying to explore (and finally exploit, to some degree) some metaphysical connection to markets/events/anything (you can call it eternity if you want to) or are you trying to achieve a non-standard mindset studying the ancient wisdom, or both?! the reason i'm asking is there might be some other branches of philosophy, much more suitable for your goal, which is - if i got it right - finding sanity within insanity and taming the beast thx for patience reading this BS to the end, looking forward to your reply.. few sentences will do. thx!
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  • #572,931
  • Dec 10, 2011 6:52am Dec 10, 2011 6:52am
Quoting MaryJane
cheers Tom i won't mix into this skirmish you're enjoying so noticeably ....
I just enjoy philosophy, and although Greece philosophy is my favourite, it has only very little to do with my trading plan. There are two main things from philosophy connected to my trading plan.

1) Market is conscious. He is able to absorb informations, change them, transfer them. Absorbing of information results in pulses, which create waves and in long term cycles.

2) Market, as a beeing, evolves. Therefore, I need to have opened mind to all techniques of market exploration, because otherwise, I will loose. There is hardly any system which works in the long run.

I hope this was the answer you were looking for.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,932
  • Dec 10, 2011 6:56am Dec 10, 2011 6:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I hope this was the answer you were looking for.
Yes it was. I got the picture. Thanks
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  • #572,933
  • Dec 10, 2011 7:26am Dec 10, 2011 7:26am
Quoting Turveyd
Adding to losers / averaging down is 1 of the best tactics available to us traders, it's interesting how it's a no no, I wonder which bank started that myth to stop retail taking there money.

Major part of my method, yes it adds 50% to my loss but for that it over doubles my profits, or gives me a lower BE exit and as I've only had 3 losers in the last 3 months might aswell focus on the profits

Adding to winners, makes the BE near and is retarded its interesting how they switched it around.


Before you flame me, think about it objectively...
The issue is the level of risk you assume, the quality of your entry and the leverage you use.

Averaging down works fine if you are just off in your timing. But if you are really wrong and get the trend direction wrong you will take a series of positions, the price will never return to its starting point and each day your loss will be magnified. After a few days or weeks you will have achieved 50% drawdown or even blown your account.

If you average into winners, you may end up giving up profits, but provided you manouver your SL wisely you will never face more than a small loss. However it is much more likely that you will end in profit and you the final position will only reduce your profit, not creating an actual loss.

So are you 100% confident in your trend analysis? If so, then average down because every time you do your chance of being wrong and sustaining a very significant loss or of blowing your account is zero.

The problem is you are playing Russian roulette. The gun may have 100 chambers and only one bullet, but if you are planning to trade for the rest of your life you will pull that trigger a large number of times.

Of course, losing your account is not the same as losing your life. Further, if you do a risk evaluation and determine that losing your account is an acceptable risk, then go ahead and average down.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #572,934
  • Dec 10, 2011 7:54am Dec 10, 2011 7:54am
Bias: Neutral

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=379
  • #572,935
  • Dec 10, 2011 8:34am Dec 10, 2011 8:34am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
There is hardly any system which works in the long run.

T
Simple MA cross-overs on the higher time frames will always work, even in the long run, and so there are many more.
GANN HILO same thing.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #572,936
  • Dec 10, 2011 8:52am Dec 10, 2011 8:52am
Quoting KillerWhale
Simple MA cross-overs on the higher time frames will always work, even in the long run, and so there are many more.
GANN HILO same thing.
Nope, it wont. If you believe it works I suggest you have a look at MA cross signals after 2008 Aftermath. Very misleading imo.

Anyway, market evolves as investors evolve. For example right now HFT traders are taking bigger and bigger slice of the market and they will react in different manner than human investors. Market changes all the time.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,937
  • Dec 10, 2011 8:57am Dec 10, 2011 8:57am
On a weekly basis this week was 10.2%, last week 7%, and the week before that 6.1%. 4th quarter is just better time to trade. On daily basis I target 1% a day but end up anywhere between 3% to 5% a week. This overall I double my account in 5 months this year. I'm not killing it just slow and steady.

Quoting leafarct
1% a day? i just try 1% a week....
  • #572,938
  • Dec 10, 2011 9:31am Dec 10, 2011 9:31am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
1) Market is conscious. He is able to absorb informations, change them, transfer them. Absorbing of information results in pulses, which create waves and in long term cycles.

2) Market, as a beeing, evolves. Therefore, I need to have opened mind to all techniques of market exploration, because otherwise, I will loose. There is hardly any system which works in the long run.

T
this philosphy of yours can be described more precisely with chaos theory
unpredicted behaviour of complex systems
you should read james gleick's book The Chaos

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos:_..._a_New_Science

it is very interesting
'You must be the change you wish to see in the world' . Gandhi
  • #572,939
  • Dec 10, 2011 9:43am Dec 10, 2011 9:43am
Quoting phxmike
this philosphy of yours can be described more precisely with chaos theory...
Thanks Mike, I will put it in the list of books I need to read. Right now, I need to focus on commodities, because I still dont exactly get the relation between commodities beeing denominated in USD and its value. My friend already adviced me one such a book, so this is what I am going to read next. But anyway, thanks a lot for your recommendation. I really enjoy reading and will have a closer look at it for sure.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #572,940
  • Dec 10, 2011 9:50am Dec 10, 2011 9:50am
Quoting phxmike
this philosphy of yours can be described more precisely with chaos theory
yep.. might be nice to read but this is rather pop-science, albeit much better than listening to bill williams who borrowed the terms to add a hi-tech glam to his ma/breakout based system.

i think he meant something like the attached.. nothing to do with philosophy either, just time series analysis (yet somewhat complex), but definitely exact science.. even turveyd might like it no woo woo!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf cycles.pdf   1.2 MB | 1,477 downloads
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