EurAnalysis

Thats one way. The other is to wait until it loses momentum (usually about an hour) and then hit it on the head taking profits at the 33 and 50 retracements.

..In the mean while we see a serious urge for the EUR fight for going higher..and try opening that door...as I noticed earlier USDX seems weaker for the present hrs.

Depends on how you trade. Macro bears are waiting for a better entry, scalpers are in and out and all over the place and momentum and swing traders are probably long.

I'm faded back in long friday but I was just stepping back into positions I closed Thursday night before NFP.

When momentum turns around or if price comes close to the last daily swing high I'll consider a short.

No but you can see for the last 1 year
http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=16

hey PT, where do you get that histogram - is it in the public domain?

thanks

Guys,

sisse was posting this article at RUT thread. It is quite interesting and imo very possibly true. It states that while makrets were expecting crash of Euro and CBs kept intervening for such a long time, short positions lost a lot, and therefore many institutional investors are pulling money out of the market and closing books for this year. This results in lower volume and stronger position of politicians who want to manipulate market.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/eb299...#axzz1fdyZj2Vc

T

yep. right here http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx

Hmmm..thank you for the link PT ... may be I know try collecting data on these

Hey Tom. I've already hit my monthly limit of 5 articles at ft.com
Can you paste the article here please?

Ofc man, they keep threatening with the right you know? But I am providing them great service as I say everywhere how great newspaper they are, so I hope they wont be mad.

T

Just in 30 mins, boss wants me to work actually.

Cool. No rush

Mine doesn't!

December 4, 2011 6:05 pm
Forex traders fear early dip in volumes
By Alice Ross


Foreign exchange traders are braced for an unusually volatile end to the year, after a sharp fall-off in volumes signalled that many investors have closed their books early.

Trading floors at investment banks are reporting a drop in demand from their major clients – many of which have lost money trading the euro, due to its unexpected strength in the face of deepening debt woes across the region.

Volumes for some currency pairs were up to 30 per cent lower in November than in the previous two months, according to estimates by Citi for the whole market, using data from the EBS trading platform.

“Our volumes are down massively,” said the head of sales at one of the largest banks in the foreign exchange market. “This is very much an early finish to the year.”

Another top-five investment bank estimates that its volumes were down as much as 15 per cent in November.

Foreign exchange trading – which normally averages £4tr a day, according to the Bank for International Settlements – does not usually take an end-of-year dip until mid December. Last year, for example, figures from EBS show that volumes rose 1 per cent month-on-month in November, before falling 31 per cent in December.

However, currency markets have proved unusually difficult to predict in the continuing debt crisis. Intervention from governments around the world to weaken their currencies has surprised markets and made it harder for investors to find havens. Traders said they have had to follow news headlines more closely, as rumours have caused large swings in the market.

“The sheer amount of newsflow has made it difficult for people to take positions confidently,” admitted Adam Margolis at Citi. “There’s a real case of headline fatigue.”

Hedge funds have been particularly hard hit by the ongoing strength of the euro, which has caused pain for many investors taking short positions.
Institutional investors and companies that hedge their currency exposure have also been less active in the foreign exchange market in the past few weeks due to the greater uncertainty over the eurozone, banks said.

The impact investment bank revenues is unclear. Earlier this year, heightened volatility led to higher volumes as clients stepped in to hedge their positions. Figures from EBS show a rise in foreign exchange trading volumes in the third quarter – and Deutsche Bank and UBS reported strong revenues from their foreign exchange businesses between July and September. One industry estimate suggested overall trading revenues were up 37 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

But, by October, EBS found volumes had already started to tail off, falling 7 per cent on the previous month to a six-month low.

See ya at the court Pat . Maybe they will charge us at the same time.

T

Thanks Paddy

CNBC Market Alert:

Stocks rise on European Debt Hopes

Hello traders. I know now is not the time for this since its during market hours, but I wanted to ask. For someone wanting to master forex trading what career would give the best experience? More specifically where would you start? What entry level position would you guys look for? I have a BA in Finance and a series 7. I have tried being a financial advisor at Morgan Stanley and it wasn't for me. Any advise is appreciated. I am sure there are other threads on this site but I have come to respect certain opinions on this thread.

Why not start out with mastering forex trading? Take a year, maybe two, justify it as education and practice your skills 10 hours a day. Start demo, move to live but small lot size, and then move up to bigger lots?

If you want to go to Rome.... just do it. Forget about a 5 year detour in London or NY.

Bear flag still on EURUSD, could set us open for a drop to 1.3000 with risk aversion. EURAUD still ripe to rally as there is a divergence in risk as SP500 EURUSD and AUDUSD are rising while EURAUD ( a decent indicator for risk sentiment) is staliing and has put in double bottom.

Also please read my artcle -http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?action=read&article=Forex-Rollover-And-Knowing-How&id=404

ANY feedback (good or most likely bad) is welcome.

ECB's net balance on SMP is still growing.



http://www.ecb.int/mopo/implement/om...ex.en.html#com