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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #293,981
  • Dec 5, 2011 1:35am Dec 5, 2011 1:35am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Very sorry, they are not consecutive but 3 lower distinct peaks non the less.
you're right about that but if you are thinking to put short, the retracement for the move must invalidate it's previous high. At least that is the first sign of exhaustion/change of trend which in this case, cable just tested it's previous high.

Until the PA invalidates the previous high which is also the resistance turned support price area, than there will be continuation to the movement.

That's my 2 cents, mate.
  • #293,982
  • Dec 5, 2011 1:40am Dec 5, 2011 1:40am
Quoting A-speculator
you're right about that but if you are thinking to put short, the retracement for the move must invalidate it's previous high. At least that is the first sign of exhaustion/change of trend which in this case, cable just tested it's previous high.

Until the PA invalidates the previous high which is also the resistance turned support price area, than there will be continuation to the movement.

That's my 2 cents, mate.
this analysis can be further supported if you make a cross pair analysis with the fiber and swissy price movement where you can clearly see that fiber is also at the resistance turned support area and the swissy at the consolidation price area at the top of its previous high (i mentioned this on my previous post).
  • #293,983
  • Dec 5, 2011 1:46am Dec 5, 2011 1:46am
About to give a massage, back later
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #293,984
  • Edited 2:57am Dec 5, 2011 2:26am | Edited 2:57am
G/M

Post #293904 here was my weekend anlysis on t/f's from the weekly to 1hr...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...378&page=19594 Since then price has risen off Friday's lo 5661, creating a LH, a HL and a H on the 1hr t/f - The H @ said 5661.

Immediately above Current Price per the near-term currrent 1hr screenshot below with Daily R1 @/around 5688, Weekly R1 @/around 5765, and Daily R2 @/around 5779.

Immediately below current price per the same near-term current 1hr screenshot below...and @//below Friday's Lo:

5587-82-75 prev 4hr/1hr sw lo zone (Friday's Lo) incl 5587 = 61.8% 5467-5780

5573-69 prev 1hr prev minor sw hi zone
5562/59 85.4% 5525-5780/61.8% 5422-5780

5550-36-25 prev 4hr/1hr sw lo zone incl 5541 = 76.4% 5467-5780, and 5540 = Daily R1 @/around

5513 85.4% 5467-5780
5507 76.4% 5422-5780
5503-5495 prev 1hr sw lo zone

5487-77-68 prev 4hr/1hr sw lo zone incl 5484 = Daily R2 @/around and 5475 = 85.4% 5422-5780

5465-60-57 prev 4hr/1hr sw lo zone
5445-35 On Monday's Daily candle -Daily Asc t/line incl 5443 Weekly S1 @/around
5434-22 prev Daily/4hr/1hr sw lo zone
5410-5390 Steepest Weekly t/f asc t/line
5386 85.4% 5270-6165
5369 Monthly S1 @/around
5420-5345-5330-5270 prev weekly/daily/4hr swing lo zone incl 5337 = Daily S3 @/around and 5290 = Weekly S2 @/around

5190/89 = Daily S4 @/around and 5189= 61.8% 4225-6746
5095-85 Weekly t/f asc t/line
5046 Monthly S2 @/around
4967 Weekly S3 @a/round
5015-4947 prev weekly sw lo zone
4819 76.4% 4225-6746
4662 Monthly S3 @/around

There is also a new ascending 4hr trend line which on this candle 4hr comes thru around 5590

Uk Services Pmi data at 0928/30am gmt

G/L
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ex member
  • #293,985
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:34am Dec 5, 2011 2:34am
38.2% of Friday's Lo-5575 to today's current Hi-5661 is where some demand has been encountered on the pullback from said 5661.

G/L
ex member
  • #293,986
  • Dec 5, 2011 2:49am Dec 5, 2011 2:49am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

New 4hr bar for me. Status remains unchanged for now - albeit slightly weaker conviction - unless we get some momentum going. Still holding short.

Regards
hi Tau, if we bounce off the DPP, R1/1H channel UTL is my first target. a failure of 5700 could be a nice short zone. first the test, then the answer. but the market may be pricing in early on potential Draghi bond buying, so EU could carry GU along with it. If 5700 goes, 5777 area is my intraday upside target. just warming up for Monday so taking lower TF moves in this play zone atm.


current 1H and Daily view attached.
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  • #293,987
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:24am Dec 5, 2011 3:24am
Event Risk: Uk Services Pmi due up at 0928/0930am gmt

G/L
ex member
  • #293,988
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:32am Dec 5, 2011 3:32am
Uk services Pmi 52.1 better than expected and crucially stays afloat above the 50 level....knee-jerk rise to the prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone, 50% 5754-5575/61.8% 5722-5575 where supply encountered.

G/L
ex member
  • #293,989
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:33am Dec 5, 2011 3:33am
Quoting Fudomyo
hi Tau, if we bounce off the DPP, R1/1H channel UTL is my first target. a failure of 5700 could be a nice short zone. first the test, then the answer. but the market may be pricing in early on potential Draghi bond buying, so EU could carry GU along with it. If 5700 goes, 5777 area is my intraday upside target. just warming up for Monday so taking lower TF moves in this play zone atm.


current 1H and Daily view attached.
Good day to you,

Good to see you. I'm just not sure...gonna give her another 30 minutes - will then decide what the next step is. I smell something. I have one little hurdle - if that goes, I bank what's left. Not gonna give it all back.

All the best to you.

Regards
  • #293,990
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:34am Dec 5, 2011 3:34am
Quoting bbmac
Event Risk: Uk Services Pmi due up at 0928/0930am gmt

G/L
see.. how convenient they fix the figure when we are in an uptrend.. always make me wonder, fundamental follow technical or the other way round..
  • #293,991
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:43am Dec 5, 2011 3:43am
Thgough 5667 one limit level for bear virtually broken & may play to tl next 5711 yet placed short at top now to see for first hand tp 3500 , bo 5600 .if done first , next may try for 50XX , let it play as far possible .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #293,992
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:47am Dec 5, 2011 3:47am
Price still only at 54% of it's 20day atr so far today (35% in eurusd)...current near-term 1hr screenshot as below (not incl calculated pivots)

G/L
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ex member
  • #293,993
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:47am Dec 5, 2011 3:47am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Good to see you. I'm just not sure...gonna give her another 30 minutes - will then decide what the next step is. I smell something. I have one little hurdle - if that goes, I bank what's left. Not gonna give it all back.

All the best to you.

Regards
yeah I agree. this last 15M on the 1H may give some direction. price got knocked back down rather soundly below my target on that spike, so I closed.

(my only trading superstition is starting the week with a green trade. 5 big pips! )
  • #293,994
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:48am Dec 5, 2011 3:48am
Small retracement for cable is expected since I think EG is due for more uptrust, i'm quite heavily loaded on long EG and currently watching on the PA at the EG resistance area, perhaps cable will retrace to about 5620-5630 area..

fiber on the other hand, i think will continue with the uptrend since the swissy has retraced back to the resistance area, and move down after the retest, if the resistance break, than there will be a whole new story for fiber and swissy.

i'll see when price for cable get to that area of support to see the possibility to add to my long..

later guys.
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  • #293,995
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:49am Dec 5, 2011 3:49am
some 1min rejection candle on the immediate post data..at that prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone and 2 x fibs mentioned and shown above....goofd beatrish div play also to 5min.

G/L
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ex member
  • #293,996
  • Dec 5, 2011 3:52am Dec 5, 2011 3:52am
Quoting Fudomyo
yeah I agree. this last 15M on the 1H may give some direction. price got knocked back down rather soundly below my target on that spike. Since I'm not in a real position yet, took my 5 pips.

(my only trading superstition is starting the week with a green trade. 5 big ones! )
Good day,

Green is good. Always. + 5 is 10 better than -5.

All the best
  • #293,997
  • Dec 5, 2011 4:13am Dec 5, 2011 4:13am
Quoting TauTrader
Green is good.
yep.

not a big fan of spiky PA on the 1H. sitting it out until we resolve this area. (under the 1H LTL/Daily Open or above R1)

the week is young.

GL with your trade!
  • #293,998
  • Dec 5, 2011 4:16am Dec 5, 2011 4:16am
Took a bounce at 50% of the current daily lo-hi on the pullback from said 5668 Hi...all a bit mixed at the moment on sub 1hr t/f's...1min bullish div play there.

Outa here

G/L
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ex member
  • #293,999
  • Dec 5, 2011 5:04am Dec 5, 2011 5:04am
Pretty hard to call cable at the moment. In the middle of its NFP range. Hourly emas flat. Slightly bearish so looking only for shorts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #294,000
  • Dec 5, 2011 6:07am Dec 5, 2011 6:07am
Good day to you,

Bleh
Attached Image
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