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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #13,221
  • Dec 3, 2011 8:58am Dec 3, 2011 8:58am
Hi guys,


Attention, attention. Crystal ball polished, spam ahead.


T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,222
  • Dec 3, 2011 8:59am Dec 3, 2011 8:59am
G1 – Ok, it is still the same. Finishing cycle started at 6.6.2010. Hopium spike up to ,416 at 27.10. was very strong correction of bearish trend with relative strenght of 73%. Now, we are in correction of correction, so we may be forming trianguloid something and entering ranging market. Since we have reached 32348 daily close at 25.11., which was 96% strong correction, we are experiencing very strong bearish pressure and this trianguloid can break pretty soon down. Right now, we are in 80,2%, so still very strong pressure. Untill we move to safer zone above 60% I consider bearish pressure intact.


G2 – From this point of view, we can clearly see, that there were only two attempts to break this downtrend since 27.10. Veteran Friday intervention resulting in 89% and this weeks lowering of swap rates, resulting in 79%. Even from this point of view, I still see bear intact.


G3 – Focusing on last couple of days could give a sign of reversal, if there was one. Yet again, there was only one serious attempt resulting in 165% strong bullish trend, after those swap rates + china liquidity.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,223
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:00am Dec 3, 2011 9:00am
Conclusion
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,224
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:02am Dec 3, 2011 9:02am
Quoting josechu

with all the hopium expected for next week, I think eurusd can mover high this week and then the Full moon week fall again

Time will tell, anyway
On oanda currency converter is at 1.34568. Last time we had a gap up, on Nov 25th, I guess, oanda currency converter value was pretty approximate. Let's see what will have tomorrow.

Now, about the last 3 red candles on M30, looked like "stop hunting on a gap up on Monday" to me. Like in everybody thought it will be a gap up on Monday, and some deep pocket guys started to hunt for their stops...
  • #13,225
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:03am Dec 3, 2011 9:03am
Quoting PipKiller
BTW, You aint related to Merkel or are German are you.....And you had the nerve to call me the :nerd: the other day
.
Fook da Germans! Well, if there is some German here, it is not personal, you know. It is just that Hitler thingie. No offence intended.

That was joke my friend, and you know it. But admit you can be kinda defined as nerd for sitting whole day at computer gathering pips. Like all of us .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,226
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:10am Dec 3, 2011 9:10am
Ok, this is what I have been meddling about fundamentals of Friday. Please keep in mind I wasnt paying attention whole week so I may have missed something. Nevertheless, I think this is basically what are we looking at. So combined with my technical mumbo jumbo, I would say we are going to be ranging down.

T

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Now, I think there are two contrary signals.
a) Markets are again on hopium rally. Question is, how long will this rally last.
b) EUR is slowly decoupling from other risk assets, so even though other markets rally, this pair may fall in the future.

Next variable, entering the equation are US employment data. This results yet again in market rally, but more importantly for this pair, in strenghtening of USD in the long term. USD can pretty easily become safe haven since Europe is crumbling.

Lowering of swap rates was another bullet CBs had....
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,227
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:10am Dec 3, 2011 9:10am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
G1 – Ok, it is still the same. Finishing cycle started at 6.6.2010. Hopium spike up to ,416 at 27.10. was very strong correction of bearish trend with relative strenght of 73%. Now, we are in correction of correction, so we may be forming trianguloid something and entering ranging market. Since we have reached 32348 daily close at 25.11., which was 96% strong correction, we are experiencing very strong bearish pressure and this trianguloid can break pretty soon down. Right now, we are in 80,2%, so still very strong pressure. Untill we move to safer...
I see a double bottom formed on G1, the first one being the start of the upside at 73% and the second one after the low trend of 80.2%. Adding in the holiday hopium and the latest political movements, I don't see bearish in the next few days, not until the end of the next week.

This is what I see, as always, the price goes exactly where it wants and time will tell
  • #13,228
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:23am Dec 3, 2011 9:23am
Quoting michaelnew
On oanda currency converter is at 1.34568. Last time we had a gap up, on Nov 25th, I guess, oanda currency converter value was pretty approximate. Let's see what will have tomorrow.

Now, about the last 3 red candles on M30, looked like "stop hunting on a gap up on Monday" to me. Like in everybody thought it will be a gap up on Monday, and some deep pocket guys started to hunt for their stops...
Gaps are signs that the market plans to do some serious trending, but that trending is not always in the direction of the gap.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #13,229
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:27am Dec 3, 2011 9:27am
Quoting michaelnew
I see a double bottom formed on G1, ...
Yep, that is a double bottom, forming trianguloid something. But I think this trianguloid is going to break down pretty soon. It doesnt have to ofc. And as redlion already posted here, we may be spiking up to ,41 and still be in a bearish trend. Nevertheless, I dont see anything above ,37 likely.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,230
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:30am Dec 3, 2011 9:30am
Quoting AaronWard
Gaps are signs that the market plans to do some serious trending, but that trending is not always in the direction of the gap.
makes sense. But the last gap up set up the game for a 200 pips ride upwards. Still not closed, by the way, probably waiting for another 500 pips up, to reach the total of 700 you were talking about the other day
  • #13,231
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:33am Dec 3, 2011 9:33am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yep, that is a double bottom, forming trianguloid something. But I think this trianguloid is going to break down pretty soon. It doesnt have to ofc. And as redlion already posted here, we may be spiking up to ,41 and still be in a bearish trend. Nevertheless, I dont see anything above ,37 likely.

T
I'm overall bearish on EUR, but given the time of the year and the political context (plus my astrological mumbo-jumbo ) I still see some moderate climbing until the biggest trend resumes. We'll see.
  • #13,232
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:35am Dec 3, 2011 9:35am
Quoting michaelnew
I'm overall bearish on EUR,..
There are more reasons for markets to rally next week. China enhanced liquidity of the banks, CBs lowered swap rates, US data are great.

I am just too much of a bear, I can see em everywhere.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,233
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:38am Dec 3, 2011 9:38am
Quoting bumapatria
how on hells name would i know?
i dont even think of predicting price then! put urself a vertical line on ur daily chart and analyze from there!


we got lunar eclipse in a week but thats for later.

its lagging i believe for the drop.

seriously im no fortuneteller, i am just using it for predictions and times to watch for confluence and PA and news

in no way do i know FOR ONE SECOND where price will move.
All that matters is that price keeps moving. Up, down or sideways, there's always pips to be gained (or lost)

My opinion: Monday will gap down and then turn bullish based on the fact that Friday ended with price heading towards support of a rising channel.

Anyway, Monday will tell a better story. If price breaks below the channel support, then that's a different story. My feeling is that the sell-off on Friday was a normal risk aversion move typical of every Friday where risk is high. More like bulls taking profit before entering the twilight zone.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #13,234
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:43am Dec 3, 2011 9:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
There are more reasons for markets to rally next week. China enhanced liquidity of the banks, CBs lowered swap rates, US data are great.

I am just too much of a bear, I can see em everywhere.

T
The herd is shorting at the moment so I assume we will see a good upmove first.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #13,235
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:46am Dec 3, 2011 9:46am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Fook da Germans! Well, if there is some German here, it is not personal, you know. It is just that Hitler thingie. No offence intended.

That was joke my friend, and you know it. But admit you can be kinda defined as nerd for sitting whole day at computer gathering pips. Like all of us .

T
It's good to be a Nerd

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #13,236
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:46am Dec 3, 2011 9:46am
PT please, did I miss some important fundamental news? I saw that China, swap rates + lowering margins, US unemployment. Anything else important happened?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,237
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:48am Dec 3, 2011 9:48am
Quoting Thijs
The herd is shorting at the moment so I assume we will see a good upmove first.
That is a very valid point. Short squeeze is great option as every moron should see that big fat bear right now. Ah that would be great. I would load lots and lots of shorts if short squeeze appeares.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,238
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:52am Dec 3, 2011 9:52am
Ok, yet again I must admit I am spammer, and I am sorry. But have you seen this episode of southpark? It is Margarita ville, when gods of economy got angry.

T

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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #13,239
  • Dec 3, 2011 9:57am Dec 3, 2011 9:57am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, yet again I must admit I am spammer, and I am sorry. But have you seen this episode of southpark?
lol, that was funny. Especially the last "finger pointing" part )
  • #13,240
  • Dec 3, 2011 10:06am Dec 3, 2011 10:06am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
PT please, did I miss some important fundamental news? I saw that China, swap rates + lowering margins, US unemployment. Anything else important happened?

T
One biggie this week beside China lowering the RRR .50 bps was China PMI at 49 which was lower than expected on Nov 30th
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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