EUR/CHF

Oops - new lows 1.228. Great opportunity to buy as a 10% surge is only a mere week away ;-)

I think they onterfered many times.. coz as soon as the eur.chf fell close to 1.21 some weeks ago the price then shooted up to again 1.24..

and this has happened twice according to my analysis.. after they set the 1.20 floor..

Looks like something is cooking in the kitchen right now...

For all the gurus out there, where is price going, up or down?


I don't know, so I just flipped a coin and it landed on its border. I tried to call P.Hildebrand to see when the SNB is raising the floor but without any luck.

So I had to open a chart and open my eyes.
After a while my little brain told me to do nothing right now, same as the SNB, what a coincidence.

One advise: There is no right or wrong, listen to yourself and do not get fooled by anybody on FF, news and the list goes on.
To survive this game as a retail trader you will need a good risk and money management strategy in place and nothing else.

Good luck

* Q/Q growth 0.2 pct vs Reuters poll for 0.1 pct
* Y/Y growth 1.3 pct vs Reuters poll for 1.7 pct
* Strong franc hurts exports

ZURICH, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Switzerland's economy posted its weakest growth since mid 2009 in the third quarter as the strong Swiss franc hit exports and capital investment fell, particularly in the metal working and mechanical engineering sectors.
Swiss gross domestic product rose only 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the second and increased 1.3 percent from a year earlier, data from the State Secretariat for Economics (SECO) showed on Thursday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.1 percent and a year-on-year growth rate of 1.7 percent. ECONCH
The second-quarter figures were revised to quarterly growth of 0.5 percent and an annual rate of 2.2 percent.
Citing a heightened risk of deflation and recession, the Swiss National Bank on Sept. 6 set a cap of 1.20 per euro on the franc, which had nearly touched parity with the common currency as a result of the euro zone debt crisis.
The Swiss National Bank has warned the strong franc will hamper growth and forward-looking indicators such as the KOF economic barometer are pointing to a severe slowdown.

Companies, among them pharmaceutical firm Roche ROGN.VX , have seen profits suffer due to the strong franc and some have also announced job cuts.
(Reporting by Catherine Bosley and Emma Thomasson; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Numbers are not important. It's all about this weeks or next weeks (at the very latest) SNB action. Why do I have the feeling that it just won't happen ? LOL

* Speculation over more SNB action after weak Swiss growth data
* Franc showed little reaction to Wednesday's liquidity steps



ZURICH, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc was largely unchanged on Thursday as markets hesitated on whether weak Swiss growth data for the third quarter could trigger action from the Swiss National Bank.
Switzerland's economy posted its weakest growth since mid 2009 in the third quarter as the strong Swiss franc hit exports and capital investment fell.
Markets are also eyeing the Swiss purchasing managers' index, due at 0830 GMT, for further signs the economy is weakening.
Some analysts said the deterioration in gross domestic product as well as the surprisingly weak KOF economic barometer on Wednesday could prompt the SNB to lift its euro-franc exchange rate floor.
"The SNB will be keen to generate further Swiss franc weakness, suggesting moving the peg up cannot be ruled out, Deutsche Bank's Henrik Gullberg said.
Other economists said the SNB would probably keep the cap it set at 1.20 per euro in September for now.
"We believe the SNB will stick to their minimum rate which is helping moderate the impact by giving more planning certainty," said Credit Suisse economist Claude Maurer.
"If the situation does not dramatically worsen, we don't think the SNB will move."
The franc was flat against the euro to trade at 1.2266 francs per euro by 0815 GMT compared to the New York close.
It was up 0.2 percent against the dollar at 0.9116 francs per dollar.
The euro rallied on Wednesday after major central banks including the SNB acted together to ease a credit squeeze stemming from the euro zone's debt crisis.
"The euro-franc rate remained once more on the sidelines, not showing any strong reaction," said analysts at St. Galler Kantonalbank, adding the currency would likely continue to trade in a close range of 1.2220 to 1.2380 for some time.

Something doesn't add up:

- recent economic numbers are bad
- rumors flying around that SNB will raise the floor

Above suggests that the Chf would depreciate against e.g. the Euro, yet it doesn't. It keeps on losing value.

Given all of the above ... what are the odds that the SNB is still in control ? Imo, they are losing it ... bit by bit ;-)

(RTTNews) - Swiss manufacturing sector shrank for a third consecutive month in November, and at a steeper rate than the previous month, data from the SVME Association of Purchasing and Materials Management and Credit Suisse showed Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index dropped more than expected to 44.8 in November from 46.9 in October. Economists were looking for a decline to 46.6. An index reading below 50 suggests contraction of the sector.
The Swiss economy was dragged into the euro crisis, while companies downsized their headcounts and upstream purchases in view of the sluggish order levels and lower capacity utilization, the report said.
The exchange rate floor set by the Swiss National Bank in early September has not been enough to protect Switzerland from the impact of the crisis, it noted.
The employment subcomponent declined to 45.8 during the month from 48.6 in October. Output dropped for a third month in a row, with the PMI scoring 45.9 compared to 48 in the preceding month.
by RTT Staff Writer

Imo, SNB will not act as long as EU debt crisis isn't under control. Too much uncertainty hanging around.

True, you are right! Until we see 1.21 or 1.20 again then SNB will act...

By Pratima Desai
LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Three months ago, Switzerland's central bank threw down the gauntlet to currency markets. Citing rising recession risks, the bank put a floor under the euro's exchange rate against the Swiss franc at 1.20.
Investors looking for a safe place to park assets piled into Swiss francs this year, driving it to record highs near parity against the euro in August as the euro zone sovereign debt and banking crisis accelerated. Economists slashed forecasts for Swiss exports and growth.
Markets have not dared pick up the Swiss National Bank's challenge and since September the euro has mostly traded in a narrow range between 1.21 and 1.23 Swiss francs.
Instead, the frequently asked question is whether the SNB will raise the franc's threshold against the euro. That has been reinforced by SNB chairman Philipp Hildebrand recently saying the Swiss franc was overvalued.
U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs expects to see the euro's exchange rate against the franc at 1.30 in three months time.
Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show speculators' short positions in the Swiss franc jumped to 5,870 contracts, the highest level since February 2010, on talk the SNB may take further action to weaken its currency.
However, whether the SNB will aim for a weaker franc is still open to debate. Many expect the central bank to sit out the year and wait to see the turn of events in the euro zone.
A lower Swiss franc level may be harder to defend.

WHY AND WHEN MIGHT THE SNB RAISE THE FRANC FLOOR?
The case for a weaker Swiss franc is made by recent data. The KOF, a leading growth indicator, fell to 0.35 points in November, its lowest in more than two years.
The Swiss purchasing managers' index showed contraction for the third month running.
Switzerland's economy posted its weakest growth since the middle of 2009 in the third quarter as the strong Swiss franc hit exports. Gross domestic product grew only 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter.
Exports account for about half of Switzerland's economy. Swiss exports to the European Union fell 2.2 percent year-on-year in October.
'Clear deterioration in the Swiss economy begs the question - what is the SNB waiting for?,' asked FxPro analyst Simon Smith. 'Companies in Switzerland are still screaming that the currency is killing them, resulting in lower employment and active plans to move operations elsewhere.'
Swiss firms in the electrical, machinery and metals sectors are bracing for a tough first half of 2012 as the strong franc and a darkening economic outlook eat into margins, the industry group Swissmem said, reiterating its call for a weaker currency.
The SNB might announce a target change on Dec. 15 when it makes a monetary policy assessment. But chances are small, and analysts say a delay into next year is more likely. Much depends on whether euro zone politicians find a way to stem the crisis.
'I can imagine 1.25 would be defensible but 1.30 would be difficult, particularly if the situation in the euro zone worsens and then 1.20 wouldn't seem so bad,' said Boris Zuercher, deputy director of economic think tank Avenir Suisse.
At 1.25 the cross would return to levels last seen in May.
'If they go to 1.30, it'll be a two- or three-leg move,' a UK-based currency hedge fund manager said.

WHY WOULD THE SNB REFRAIN FROM RAISING FRANC FLOOR?
Time and again euro zone leaders have failed to deliver. Investors who have abandoned all hope of a resolution would perhaps rather take their chances with the Swiss authorities.
Trying and failing to stop an investor stampede into Swiss francs could cost the SNB credibility and render it powerless for some time, particularly if the target was moved beforehand.
'(SNB) saw the franc was affecting manufacturers. They established a floor which they think is economically justified and where they could manage expectations,' said Philippe Bonneyfoy, founder of hedge fund Eleuthera Capital.
Fund managers say one major reason why the SNB announced a target in September was a perception of 'disorderly' markets, Now they expect the central bank to rely on fear of intervention and rhetoric to talk the currency down.
'If a central bank gets too involved in the micromanagement of levels, it quickly loses credibility because the market will see it as setting an artificial price,' Bonnefoy said.

(Additional reporting by Emma Thomasson and Catherine Bosley; graphics by Scott Barber; editing by xxxxx) Keywords: SWISSFRANC/TARGET (Reuters Messaging: [email protected]@reuters.net)
COPYRIGHT
Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

Ouch ... full of bold statements .. 1.30 ... 1.35 ... 1.40 ...2.00 ...

What's next ? Oops, sorry my fault ... raising floor to 1.35 this or next week ;-)

Many members ecpecting intervention on here aka looking easy money

the lull before the storm

ur opinion that snb wont intervene in near future is respectful and it's helpful to hear opposite opinion. So, we can judge better, But why do u try to ridicule others? Just tell ur opinion and respect others attitude!

Point taken, you're absolutely right ! Mea culpa.

Cheers man
Good luck

Peace at last...

Goodluck to all Long and all Short...depending on which boat you are on.

Swiss government said it may consider additional measures including negative interest rates to support the country's central bank in its fight against the appreciation of CHF