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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,861
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:10am Dec 1, 2011 4:10am
Quoting the redlion
dont fight the bull trend if you are a day trader, just keep buying.

keep in mind we are in a bear market and when this thing loses momentum position to sell.

you could lose money by holding the right belief at the wrong time.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,862
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:13am Dec 1, 2011 4:13am
Official detailed French bond auction results

1.1bn euros 2026 OATs, av yield 3.65 pct

1.08bn 2041 av yield 3.94 pct

595m 2017 av yield 2.42pct
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,863
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:14am Dec 1, 2011 4:14am
Quoting the redlion
dont fight the bull trend if you are a day trader, just keep buying.

keep in mind we are in a bear market and when this thing loses momentum position to sell.

you could lose money by holding the right belief at the wrong time.
wisely said red
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #12,864
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:15am Dec 1, 2011 4:15am
Quoting sisse
Very true. However, I insist that is only one thing that can destroy any political games: the economy. When things goes upside-down, it opens the door for unforeseeable political developments....A relevant example in Europe: Germany after WWI....

sisse
Very true. I hope we are passed this as a society but I could wrong. I look at the US death toll for a 10 year war in Iraq. Less than 5000 people. This is about the same as a bad hour during the Civil War, WWI, or WWII. I am hoping that as a society we would rather fight on the internet than in real life. I don't see why not as long as we are fed, housed and clothed. And this era of surplus created by technology makes that all possible just like the surplus created by empire and slavery made the Roman masses possible.

The thing that really surprises me is that the economy has not already brought an end to the Euro experiment. This anomaly is what underlies my search for an alternate explanation.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,865
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:17am Dec 1, 2011 4:17am
judging the bond results PT, im guessing thats pro-euro coz it just jumped yes?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #12,866
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:22am Dec 1, 2011 4:22am
Quoting bumapatria
judging the bond results PT, im guessing thats pro-euro coz it just jumped yes?
Yes but the rates are still higher than last time.
It seems the market is happy because the bid to cover ratio was sufficient which is an indication that the bond markets are not freezing up.
However, don't be fooled. This is probably just an unwinding of the shorts that were in place due to the fear of a bond market collapse. The underlying fundamentals are still extremely bearish. Proceed with caution and wait for a good shorting opportunity. Like RedLion said, wait for the bull momentum to weaken and then start looking for a good place to enter short.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,867
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:34am Dec 1, 2011 4:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes but the rates are still higher than last time.
It seems the market is happy because the bid to cover ratio was sufficient which is an indication that the bond markets are not freezing up.
However, don't be fooled. This is probably just an unwinding of the shorts that were in place due to the fear of a bond market collapse. The underlying fundamentals are still extremely bearish. Proceed with caution and wait for a good shorting opportunity. Like RedLion said, wait for the bull momentum to weaken and then start looking for a good place to...
Bit like what happens when the doctor comes in with the good news and the bad news.

Bad news: your illness is still terminal...
Good news: well we feared you were going to die today... but I guess you are not

Typically the relief at not dying is greater than the dismay of know that you probably will still die as some point in the future.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,868
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:45am Dec 1, 2011 4:45am
Hey PT, have you exited your shorts yet or still holding on? Do you see 1.37 feasible in the following week? I've gone long because of the multi-banks intervention. My target to unload my long is probably @ 1.353.

EDIT: I see no bear catalyst in the near future too, what do you think?

Quoting PipTrapper
Yes but the rates are still higher than last time.
It seems the market is happy because the bid to cover ratio was sufficient which is an indication that the bond markets are not freezing up.
However, don't be fooled. This is probably just an unwinding of the shorts that were in place due to the fear of a bond market collapse. The underlying fundamentals are still extremely bearish. Proceed with caution and wait for a good shorting opportunity. Like RedLion said, wait for the bull momentum to weaken and then start looking for a good place to...
  • #12,869
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:52am Dec 1, 2011 4:52am
Bond yields and spreads are starting to ease a bit. Hopium fills the air.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: govbonds2.jpg Size: 76 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,870
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:53am Dec 1, 2011 4:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes but the rates are still higher than last time.
It seems the market is happy because the bid to cover ratio was sufficient which is an indication that the bond markets are not freezing up.
However, don't be fooled.
What would you do if you were managing a bond fund with oh let's say a $Trillion AUM - containing the pension funds for entire nations, etc? In your opinion, is there anything other than US Treasurys, that would be safe enough for you? Can you imagine a scenario wherein even those would be too risky? What in the world is to be done with the huge sums of cash that are just sitting around unutilized in the world?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,871
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:57am Dec 1, 2011 4:57am
Quoting jeff_b
Hey PT, have you exited your shorts yet or still holding on? Do you see 1.37 feasible in the following week? I've gone long because of the multi-banks intervention. My target to unload my long is probably @ 1.353.

EDIT: I see no bear catalyst in the near future too, what do you think?
True there is no current bear catalyst right now but I am still holding my shorts for now. Take note that there is no bull catalyst either. This is just an easing of the extreme bearishness, but overall the market is still bearish.

My charts still clearly indicate to me that the falling channel resistance has yet to be violated. As long as it holds, I will not consider taking profit.

H4 Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h4.gif Size: 44 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,872
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:02am Dec 1, 2011 5:02am
Quoting The Fool
What would you do if you were managing a bond fund with oh let's say a $Trillion AUM - containing the pension funds for entire nations, etc? In your opinion, is there anything other than US Treasurys, that would be safe enough for you? Can you imagine a scenario wherein even those would be too risky? What in the world is to be done with the huge sums of cash that are just sitting around unutilized in the world?
Go for yield. As long as I am confident that there is yield to be had at reasonable risk, I would go for it as long as I was confident that I had the option of dumping at the first sign of imminent failure.. But then I am not a fund manager
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,873
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:11am Dec 1, 2011 5:11am
Quoting The Fool
What would you do if you were managing a bond fund with oh let's say a $Trillion AUM - containing the pension funds for entire nations, etc? In your opinion, is there anything other than US Treasurys, that would be safe enough for you? Can you imagine a scenario wherein even those would be too risky? What in the world is to be done with the huge sums of cash that are just sitting around unutilized in the world?
This is a great question. These fund managers formerly invested in EZ bonds... you know, sovereign debt is risk free. Then they started to get worried so they bought their CDS to hedge. Then the EZ effectively discontinued payouts by introducing the "voluntary" haircut. Hedge is now gone and sovereign debt is now very risky.

But as to what to do with all that money? Put a couple zeros on the price tag of everything and a lot of money becomes a little money. No more need to worry about the money. Now the question becomes how to feed the poor. Problem solved.

I wonder how Kyle Bass feels about not being able to hedge his sovereign debt with CDS?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,874
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:13am Dec 1, 2011 5:13am
Hi guys,

damn I am still unable to come here. Just as soon as I come, my head gets all dizzy from the first page I read.

You know, you should rest sometimes too.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,875
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:15am Dec 1, 2011 5:15am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys,

damn I am still unable to come here. Just as soon as I come, my head gets all dizzy from the first page I read.

You know, you should rest sometimes too.

T
dizzy blond?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,876
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:16am Dec 1, 2011 5:16am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys,

damn I am still unable to come here. Just as soon as I come, my head gets all dizzy from the first page I read.

You know, you should rest sometimes too.

T
Get your rest Tom. I have been in that situation a few times before. Usually a few days off clears the mind. Enjoy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,877
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:27am Dec 1, 2011 5:27am
you want to hear a good probability scenario

today is the first day of December, open price of the month 1.34414 august low was 1.3145 novermbers low was 1.3211 if we are in a bear market most likely we break below 1.3211, and trade below 1.30's this month if not, we are likely to range, or even look into near future up movement breaking the 1.40's upwards
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #12,878
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:32am Dec 1, 2011 5:32am
for the past 3 yrs approx we have been trading from 1.60 to 1.20 with lower highs and lower lows, last three peaks at 1.6037, 1.5143, and 1.4939

last two low's 1.2328, 1.1876,

looks like we are on our way down to hit below 1.20 by december 2012 or jan 2013
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #12,879
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:32am Dec 1, 2011 5:32am
Close long 1% +
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 15M.png Size: 35 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,880
  • Dec 1, 2011 5:33am Dec 1, 2011 5:33am
Quoting AaronWard
I wonder how Kyle Bass feels about not being able to hedge his sovereign debt with CDS?
I'm m/l clueless about how KB does what he does, but that's one good question. Also, when does he cash in if he sees a sov going down the tube - ie, when to worry about not be able to collect, ala Argentina? KB would say that these extreme highrisk bets are deeply asymmetric hedges against the more mundane bulk of his book. But even Kyle Bass is SOL if SHTF big time.

Which is where the guns/gold and the fort and the spytricked Hummer come in. Interesting dude...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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