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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,081
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:23am Nov 25, 2011 8:23am
Quoting AaronWard
We should lock you up in a word tight jail designed for lawyers.
LOL Aaron, if I was a lawyer I wouldn't be trading Forex
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,082
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:24am Nov 25, 2011 8:24am
Quoting AaronWard
I'm such a coward. I closed everything down at about 1.3250 and I am flat... the first time in about 2 months. I am about 2% from doubling my second account and have completely recovered the money I lost with my first. So not bad for a 10 weeks.

But why shouldn't it be worse than the Lehman storm? Although the world financial system was threatened 2008, the economy was comparatively robust, governments were stable and the CBs had lots of bullets. Now the financial system is once again threatened, but the world economy is frail, a...
Well whats the problem with being flat at support?. If this is going to be catastrophe, the next move will be a few thousand ticks more down so plenty of time to load or reload.... if this is not the Armageddon (as 99% of the time) you took profit in a very healthy level.... betting on a return to normality rather than boom and doom is always the best bet and IMHO show the difference between a experienced and seasoned trader and the rest ....

Doom and boom traders are right once every peak or valley in the econmic cycle, one every +/-10 years and 1 every 100 times, on the other hand if you bet in a return to "normality" will be wrong only 1 every 100 times...so choose your poison....

In any case, GL in the short US session.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #12,083
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:26am Nov 25, 2011 8:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
LOL Aaron, if I was a lawyer I wouldn't be trading Forex
Haha. It is not that easy. Both of my parents are lawyers so I was breast-feeded by law and order. Silence at the court!

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,084
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:26am Nov 25, 2011 8:26am
Quoting sisse
Doom and boom traders are right once every peak or valley in the econmic cycle, one every +/-10 years and 1 every 100 times, on the other hand if you bet in a return to "normality" will be wrong only 1 every 100 times...so choose your poison....
Love it
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,085
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:27am Nov 25, 2011 8:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
LOL Aaron, if I was a lawyer I wouldn't be trading Forex
Hehehe... never said you were a lawyer... only that you should be locked in a word tight jail that was good enough to hold a lawyer...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,086
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:28am Nov 25, 2011 8:28am
Quoting AaronWard
Hehehe... never said you were a lawyer... only that you should be locked in a word tight jail that was good enough to hold a lawyer...
touché
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,087
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:32am Nov 25, 2011 8:32am
EURUSD rising on speculation SNB will be buying Euros

So is this how we get our correction for a shorting opportunity?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,088
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:34am Nov 25, 2011 8:34am
Quoting sisse
Well whats the problem with being flat at support?. If this is going to be catastrophe, the next move will be a few thousand ticks more down so plenty of time to load or reload.... if this is not the Armageddon (as 99% of the time) you took profit in a very healthy level.... betting on a return to normality rather than boom and doom is always the best bet and IMHO show the difference between a experienced and seasoned trader and the rest ....

Doom and boom traders are right once every peak or valley in the econmic cycle, one every +/-10 years...
I think I am going to resist taking any positions before Monday. But I so want to go long...I even opened a position at 1.230, but as I said, my nerves are shot. It went 2 pips against me and I closed it. A couple days away from the market is what I need.

You are right, if it really is the end of Europe, I should have 2-3 months to dog pile the Euro on its way down. If not, I can wait until the correction plays out and then jump back on. By most accounts the correction should be at least 500 pips. Maybe I will even try to ride it north.

BTW -- a bottom may be close. Lots of big green bars on the lower time frames.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,089
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:34am Nov 25, 2011 8:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hah. Now I can see you added yourself in the picture . I find our bearish sentiment very cozy. Hmmm, I like that.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,090
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:37am Nov 25, 2011 8:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay so NYSE bell rings in about 10 minutes.
Will we get the supposed Thanksgiving rally?

Hard to say at this point, but all I am seeing here is short coverings before open. Possibly in anticipation of the supposed rally.

Remember that NYSE is half day today. All trading stops at 1pm NY time
Ya, for a longer term, I still believe bearish in EU and as my plan, any bounce towards to 3700-800 could be a good entry point for short.. i am patient to wait for next chance to short in the next month (not good i closed my short at 3775 and 3695 at 3600 level last week)..
  • #12,091
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:42am Nov 25, 2011 8:42am
Quoting Yuchen
Ya, for a longer term, I still believe bearish in EU and as my plan, any bounce towards to 3700-800 could be a good entry point for short.. i am patient to wait for next chance to short in the next month (not good i closed my short at 3775 and 3695 at 3600 level last week)..
If you made profit, how can it not be good? Not good is when you lose.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,092
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:50am Nov 25, 2011 8:50am
SP500 rallying and EUR/USD holding back

Attached Image
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,093
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:51am Nov 25, 2011 8:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
If you made profit, how can it not be good? Not good is when you lose.
yeah, you are right... but my greedy and fear made me miss the chance.. EU was around 3430 last week and my greedy told me dont close the short at 3695 level (which i was struggle for an hour to ask me if i should close it and leave the 3775 run). Then it bounce on friday to 3613 and i closed both of my pair exactly at 3610 level because i was so regret and fear for that almost 200 pips bounce)... but as you said, it is all good as long as i still get some reasonable profits.. This is forex, if i cannot earn the major pips when i am correct, it is not very good (another greedy example, lol).
I will see if i can make improvement next time..
  • #12,094
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:55am Nov 25, 2011 8:55am
Hi All, this is my first ever observation I am posting here, It may be wrong.. But if its wrong, please correct me ..

Overall trend down
The earliest support I see is at 1.3145 this being a very strong one..
Overall Euro news , no good news,, there might some rumors here and there.
From the US side, no news.. No news is good news.
Lastly, no economy report left for the day.
Everybody is talking about correction but I dont think so it will come today.. Lets wait for Monday as US will open full time.


All this tell me to short.. may be for 20 to 30 pips..
  • #12,095
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:58am Nov 25, 2011 8:58am
Estimates for based on current pace of debt accumulation are that the ceiling should be reached around New Year’s Eve, plus or minus a day.
To raise this ceiling, the Super Committee must agree to $1.2 trillion in debt reduction over the next 10 years. No one is particualrly optimistic about the prospects for this occurring

By Barry Ritholtz - November 18th, 2011
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Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #12,096
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:59am Nov 25, 2011 8:59am
Quoting LearninForex
Overall trend down
The earliest support I see is at 1.3145 this being a very strong one..
Overall Euro news , no good news,, there might some rumors here and there.
From the US side, no news.. No news is good news.
Lastly, no economy report left for the day.
Everybody is talking about correction but I dont think so it will come today.. Lets wait for Monday as US will open full time.

All this tell me to short.. may be for 20 to 30 pips..
Not a good idea to short when everything is looking bullish.
This is one of those days where traders buy just because they believe everyone else is buying. "Thanksgiving Rally" It is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
My advice.. stay flat for now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,097
  • Nov 25, 2011 9:00am Nov 25, 2011 9:00am
Quoting LearninForex
.. No news is good news...
I especially like this part. Propaganda works quite well here. Murdoch is shorting Eur and I am starting to suppose Bloomberg is short as well.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,098
  • Nov 25, 2011 9:05am Nov 25, 2011 9:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not a good idea to short when everything is looking bullish.
This is one of those days where traders buy just because they believe everyone else is buying. "Thanksgiving Rally" It is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
My advice.. stay flat for now.
PT, thanks for suggesting.. Thanksgiving Rally could be considered as a small correction ? And if it is then till what point ? And If the rally does not act like a rally then down by how much ?

btw, I didnt thought of thanksgiving rally, thats something fundie.. Thanks


LF
  • #12,099
  • Nov 25, 2011 9:18am Nov 25, 2011 9:18am
Who said long its not good - close 40 pips for 2,5%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,100
  • Nov 25, 2011 9:22am Nov 25, 2011 9:22am
Quoting LearninForex
PT, thanks for suggesting.. Thanksgiving Rally could be considered as a small correction ? And if it is then till what point ? And If the rally does not act like a rally then down by how much ?

btw, I didnt thought of thanksgiving rally, thats something fundie.. Thanks


LF
There are many different thoughts about how far the correction will go.
I say 1.3430/40 area but some others think 1.37

We shall have to wait and see what news comes out today and Monday

Ultimately, the downward move should take us as low as 1.20 after we have the correction.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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