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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,061
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:36am Nov 25, 2011 7:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's really not that hard to code in MQL4. The editor comes with a comprehensive language reference with examples. I learned it in two days.
Sure .. Lets see I'll PM you about the doubts when I stuck in logic. Will start drafting some plan in the weekend.:nerd:
  • #12,062
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:36am Nov 25, 2011 7:36am
Quoting Thijs
I suppose iff the ECB says the following "We will not let the yields of solvent countries rise untill unsustainable levels"

And markets believe it. They can solve this bond problem without spending a dime.
First they already jumped to very bad levels, Second, who is going to believe them. 2 years of broken promises. Politicians shoot themselves on the foot with all the inefficiency and inaction and they will/are paying the price.

Full action with eurobonds and etc or die. There is no more room for ""We will not let the yields of solvent countries rise untill unsustainable levels"

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #12,063
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:37am Nov 25, 2011 7:37am
Hi sisse, my mentor. I can see you down there .

I have read your thoughts on RUT about possible 100 pips more. Possible. But I dont want to be greedy and will probably take another partial profit at 3197. Well, maybe, maybe.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,064
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:39am Nov 25, 2011 7:39am
Quoting sisse
First they already jumped to very bad levels, Second, who is going to believe them. 2 years of broken promises. Politicians shoot themselves on the foot with all the inefficiency and inaction and they will/are paying the price.

Full action with eurobonds and etc or die. There is no more room for ""We will not let the yields of solvent countries rise untill unsustainable levels"

sisse
I agree it will not turn things around but most traders will not see through that statement and they will cover short positions. That for me will be enough to open a few fresh short positions when the short-lived rally ends.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,065
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:40am Nov 25, 2011 7:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi sisse, my mentor. I can see you down there .

I have read your thoughts on RUT about possible 100 pips more. Possible. But I dont want to be greedy and will probably take another partial profit at 3197. Well, maybe, maybe.

T
...thanks for the compliment....yeap looks healthy.

Watch-out for EZ politicians are in full motion right now. The just announced a free ride for private investors on the new plan (whatever plan is this ... I lost count already a dozen of "plans" ago) ...so be careful...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #12,066
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:45am Nov 25, 2011 7:45am
Anyway, now when I think about it, this seems like a clear hyperbolic pressure to me. Although lows seem to slow down highs are under extereme press. I may move TP a bit lower.

And once the bounce comes, it will be brutal bounce.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,067
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:49am Nov 25, 2011 7:49am
Quoting sisse
...thanks for the compliment....yeap looks healthy.

Watch-out for EZ politicians are in full motion right now. The just announced a free ride for private investors on the new plan (whatever plan is this ... I lost count already a dozen of "plans" ago) ...so be careful...

sisse
ù

In Belgium they are sort of asking the people to help by promoting to buy state bonds at 4%. And the funny part is. People are actually doing it.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #12,068
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:50am Nov 25, 2011 7:50am
Btw, while you jumped on Thijs statement, thats not nice guys. He didnt say a word about politicians. He was talking about CBs. And CBs words still have some credit imo.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,069
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:52am Nov 25, 2011 7:52am
Quoting Thijs
In Belgium they are sort of asking the people to help by promoting to buy state bonds at 4%. And the funny part is. People are actually doing it.
Our Ministry of Finance issued bonds with something like thrilling 2% yield + heavy marketing campaign . And people are buing it.

Well, I prefere to invest in pips.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,070
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:58am Nov 25, 2011 7:58am
Quoting Thijs
ù

In Belgium they are sort of asking the people to help by promoting to buy state bonds at 4%. And the funny part is. People are actually doing it.
Je je je. Only in Belgium (pls don't get me wrong). Well to be completely honest it is a good business and it is the only country in problems in the EZ that I would definitively bet on a return to normality.

I hope all this market pressures help to put and end to the childish political deadlock that is destroying its credibility and making Belgium look like a 3rd word country pseudo-democracy...

In any case, EZ politicians in their own party in the wires. Saying a lot of bla bla and contracting themselves every second speaker...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #12,071
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:01am Nov 25, 2011 8:01am
The picture before wasnt complete actually. There was Tom riding the submarine missing.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,072
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:05am Nov 25, 2011 8:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
foto,
I believe this is just the beginning. No, I am not suggesting this is a Lehman type crash but the characteristics are very similar to the calm before that big storm of 2008... creeping ever so slowly towards the cliff edge.
Yep Aaron got it right. It is spooky.
I'm such a coward. I closed everything down at about 1.3250 and I am flat... the first time in about 2 months. I am about 2% from doubling my second account and have completely recovered the money I lost with my first. So not bad for a 10 weeks.

But why shouldn't it be worse than the Lehman storm? Although the world financial system was threatened 2008, the economy was comparatively robust, governments were stable and the CBs had lots of bullets. Now the financial system is once again threatened, but the world economy is frail, a number of governments are in the process of going down, and the CBs only have the already much abused power to monetize more debt.. It seems to me this time should be a lot worse.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,073
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:06am Nov 25, 2011 8:06am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
The picture before wasnt complete actually. There was Tom riding the submarine missing.

T


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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,074
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:10am Nov 25, 2011 8:10am
Yes. True coward, while you doubled your account .

I think it will be worse. But you said short term solution yourself.

Quoting AaronWard
... CBs only have the already much abused power to monetize more debt..
I thik they will monetize for a short term repair and then the true storm comes.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,075
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:12am Nov 25, 2011 8:12am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yes. True coward, while you doubled your account .

I think it will be worse. But you said short term solution yourself.



I thik they will monetize for a short term repair and then the true storm comes.

T
What will the true storm look like ?


Thijs
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #12,076
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:15am Nov 25, 2011 8:15am
Quoting Thijs
What will the true storm look like ?

Thijs
I will use kinda simplification, as the impacts can be very wide, but the link I see is this:

Monetization - inflation - rising costs of imports (especially oil) - rising unemployment - heavy social unrest - Tom in a bombshelter.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #12,077
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:15am Nov 25, 2011 8:15am
people who decide to add short at current level should be careful, a break 3259 could lead to further bounce to 3320 and daily close above for 3320 may indicate a short-term bottom formed at 3220.
Once EU has its correction, it may move even more aggressively than it dropped in the last 2 weeks.
  • #12,078
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:18am Nov 25, 2011 8:18am
Quoting AaronWard
But why shouldn't it be worse than the Lehman storm? Although the world financial system was threatened 2008, the economy was comparatively robust, governments were stable and the CBs had lots of bullets. Now the financial system is once again threatened, but the world economy is frail, a number of governments are in the process of going down, and the CBs only have the already much abused power to monetize more debt.. It seems to me this time should be a lot worse.
First off, congrats for almost doubling your account

As for the crisis, I didn't say it wouldn't be worse than the Lehman failure. I never even said it wouldn't be like it. I said "I am not suggesting it is" Big difference. Whether or not it is, is yet to be seen
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,079
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:21am Nov 25, 2011 8:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
First off, congrats for almost doubling your account

As for the crisis, I didn't say it wouldn't be worse than the Lehman failure. I never even said it wouldn't be like it. I said "I am not suggesting it is" Big difference. Whether or not it is, is yet to be seen
We should lock you up in a word tight jail designed for lawyers.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,080
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:21am Nov 25, 2011 8:21am
Quoting Yuchen
people who decide to add short at current level should be careful, a break 3259 could lead to further bounce to 3320 and daily close above for 3320 may indicate a short-term bottom formed at 3220.
Once EU has its correction, it may move even more aggressively than it dropped in the last 2 weeks.
Okay so NYSE bell rings in about 10 minutes.
Will we get the supposed Thanksgiving rally?

Hard to say at this point, but all I am seeing here is short coverings before open. Possibly in anticipation of the supposed rally.

Remember that NYSE is half day today. All trading stops at 1pm NY time
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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