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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #11,761
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:53am Nov 24, 2011 5:53am
Quoting AaronWard
Actually if I am 100% convinced of something, I am usually pretty quiet.

FF is a great learning tool. If you are not sure of something, taking the effort to put it into words is very helpful. And then, having somebody disagree with you is even better. When you defend your point of view you get a second chance to examine your core assumptions. And every so often you luck out... the other guy is right and you walk away much richer.
AW, PERFECT!
  • #11,762
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:02am Nov 24, 2011 6:02am
Here we goooooooo!
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I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #11,763
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:06am Nov 24, 2011 6:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sisse,
In what context do you mention "Germany jumps on board"? Are you suggesting that Germany will give in on the Eurobond idea without fiscal integration or intrusive fiscal governance of the weaker EZ members?
Cheers
PT
Markets touched a neuralgic point yesterday with that German auction. I expect a reaction (any) after that. This went beyond the "lazy" backyard problems now and is ringing the front door of the big players.

The very few times Treasuries/Bonds charts give signals, are all the time very solid and mark major shifting points. That key US/GERMANY 10 YEAR GAP has flirted 3 times since June to break the 0 risk level (the one that signal Treasuries preferred over Germans as haven) but failed. Yesterday divergence was huge and mark a "confirmed break point" (if it is such a concept on a bond gap chart). The last time was broken ...guess? ... Lehman collapse.

They have to make a decision now. Either make it fail or push forward. Most of the noise from the press come from the internal political struggles to sell the idea inside Germany. In practice, they know, that they only have 2 options. Break or more integration with Eurobond (now call stabilization bonds). so it will be a matter of time but will have some action to whatever side.

BTW, Liquidity problems 100% serious and confirmed. ECB in a hurry (only 2 hours after the Dexia problems) announced more liquidity facilities for banks. Watch out for short term reaction to the upside on free money....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,764
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:06am Nov 24, 2011 6:06am
Quoting rekon67
Just looking at the 8 hrs EUR USD feeling touching the bottom @ 1.31x is still pending.
ur 8h supply is at 3600 i believe or 3800 if my eyes arent playin me
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,765
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:08am Nov 24, 2011 6:08am
Congratulations piptraper on your gains, now i know what an ideal treader looks like.

I just collect only 30pips on 80% of position

Portugal downgrade was no event since market is in a position of downgrading Germany already.

Wish i would trade less.
  • #11,766
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:17am Nov 24, 2011 6:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
EuroBonds will not fly without tighter fiscal integration or intrusive fiscal governance of profligate member states. For that to happen, we will first have to see some treaty changes. At this point it is more likely that PIIGS will fly. The fact is that there is no short term solution. Only quick temporary fixes that become less effective every time.

Anyway, regardless of what happens in the debt crisis issue, the Euro still has to fall to a level that will help EZ member states become more competitive. The EZ is entering a recession. All the...
I agree with you that Eurobonds would not work and would require Treaty changes, but the announcement would move the markets due to the hopium generated.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,767
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:17am Nov 24, 2011 6:17am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Back from lunch, 2 longs still open for retrace on AUDUSD + 40 pips net, Sell limits set at several levels up to 1.3520 for retrace. Aussie longs will be released after Euro retrace turns back. Don't you just love high maintenance trades around holidays? Its like dancing with the ugly chick at homecoming!
Closed .9717 Aussie for +50 pips, Aussie long at .9677 still open awaiting short entries on EURUSD to add to present shorts.
  • #11,768
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:17am Nov 24, 2011 6:17am
Quoting bumapatria
ur 8h supply is at 3600 i believe or 3800 if my eyes arent playin me
1.36x is major sometimes looking at a naked chart gives you less stress and you can see the overall picture quite clean (personal view)
  • #11,769
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:19am Nov 24, 2011 6:19am
Quoting bumapatria
yes expect the unexpected. the black swan. at least we're ready for massive profit if it does.

more and more dates tommorow. will update on that as it arrives

how u doing sir alo?

hows ur longs? treating u well?
So far so good. Trying to hammer out a bottom here for a launch today or tomorrow.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,770
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:22am Nov 24, 2011 6:22am
Quoting Alorente
I agree with you that Eurobonds would not work and would require Treaty changes, but the announcement would move the markets due to the hopium generated.
So can somebody explain to me how ESFS is functionally different from Eurobonds? When the ESFS buys Greek or Italian bonds... they become defacto Eurobonds. As for the problem of "limited liability" that a country only need to pay so much in, my understanding is that the ESFS can increase required participation at its own discretion.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,771
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:24am Nov 24, 2011 6:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Sisse,
In what context do you mention "Germany jumps on board"? Are you suggesting that Germany will give in on the Eurobond idea without fiscal integration or intrusive fiscal governance of the weaker EZ members?
Cheers
PT
Of course they will, if the alternative is a banking collapse and depression. If we get to the edge of the cliff, they will suddenly become pragmatic.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,772
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:27am Nov 24, 2011 6:27am
I think a lot of the posters are only long for the short term just because of the holiday weekend and the oversold conditions we had yesterday, but most of us probably expect the pair to drop in the long term. It's like a person that ran many miles, it needs to stop and breathe, pull back a little to regain some more strength and energy to proceed with the next push down. i.e. ppl will be taking profits from their shorts and you'll have some ppl going long also, kelping to push price up and u should get a better short entry price.

Quoting conexer
nyfx718,

Seems like everyone here is with the longs with Eur/Usd. Better i should analyze more before deciding.
  • #11,773
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:29am Nov 24, 2011 6:29am
Quoting sisse
Markets touched a neuralgic point yesterday with that German auction. I expect a reaction (any) after that. This went beyond the "lazy" backyard problems now and is ringing the front door of the big players.

The very few times Treasuries/Bonds charts give signals, are all the time very solid and mark major shifting points. That key US/GERMANY 10 YEAR GAP has flirted 3 times since June to break the 0 risk level (the one that signal Treasuries preferred over Germans as haven) but failed. Yesterday divergence was huge and mark a "confirmed break...
Yes we have indeed reached a "make or break" moment as far as sovereign debt is concerned. Obviously this game of chicken cannot go on forever. However, I feel a move towards integration would take too much time to implement seeing as it will need treaty changes and ratification by all 17 EZ member states. Perhaps the mere mention that they have a plan to come up with a plan for more integration would be enough, but if memory serves me correctly, they have already spun that record to no avail. On top of that there is the political credibility issue. They have assured us so many times that they have a solution only for it to be revealed that there was no such thing. How many more times will the sheep swallow that load of crap?

The Muppets (Merkel, Sarkozy & the EC) may come up with some kind of hopiumized statement to try and fend off the bond vigilantes but I don't think it will work this time. All they can do now is bring out the fire extinguishers and try to mitigate the damage.

As for the liquidity issues, the ECB is more than equipped to deal with that independently, and in the face of adversity, Draghi will not give a crap what the Muppets have to say about it.

So based on what you have said and coupled with my thoughts on the matter, I am inclined to believe that we may see some upward moves in the Euro if the ECB provides liquidity, but that should be very short lived and mostly absorbed by the run... after which the house of cards should come tumbling down for a fresh start... like it was supposed to be in the first place before the Muppets started interfering in the markets.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,774
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:31am Nov 24, 2011 6:31am
Quoting AaronWard
So can somebody explain to me how ESFS is functionally different from Eurobonds? When the ESFS buys Greek or Italian bonds... they become defacto Eurobonds. As for the problem of "limited liability" that a country only need to pay so much in, my understanding is that the ESFS can increase required participation at its own discretion.
The difference is that there is a limit to what the EFSF can purchase. Expanding that limit is not an option at this point. Eurobonds have no such limit, in theory.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,775
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:32am Nov 24, 2011 6:32am
Quoting FXMindset
Trying long again @ 1.3380 Risk 1% Sl 1.3360 TP : Manual
Closed @ BE - Flat now
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #11,776
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:35am Nov 24, 2011 6:35am
Quoting FXMindset
Closed @ BE - Flat now
hey bro r u more of a scalper or a swinger?

just asking
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,777
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:35am Nov 24, 2011 6:35am
Quoting Alorente
I agree with you that Eurobonds would not work and would require Treaty changes, but the announcement would move the markets due to the hopium generated.
Well I think the issue is about expectations more than a technical reality. One of the key factor for the huge success of the euro after introduced was that it took over 10 years to full implementation.

You surely remember the Maastricht treaty when the Euro idea was set. They had over 10 years to adjust all the technicalities of the process but markets believe it and take it seriously.

Is the same now, if they announce some kind of eurobonds or whatever in the same line (for implementation in 10 years or whatever it doesn't matter) they did with the Euro (and 99% of the EU "good" working projects/treaties..the bad ones just suck big time for other reasons) the will send a powerful message that:

1st) the euro is going nowhere and is going to stay for a long time = Confidence.
2nd) and more importantly that massive reforms will be implementeds and fiscal measures taken on the problematic ones to convince the big healthy ones (germany, france and the bunch of small solid, serious ones) to accept such a deal = Stability

Obviously this will not solve short term internal economic problems of Greece, Portugal or Spain but Confidence and Stability are conditions sine qua non for a currency. Eurobonds agreement will do that, even if they are not going to be implemented in +10 years (like with the euro).

Is up to the politicians to decide what they want because on the market side I think all cards are on the table and they are very clear. Make or die.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,778
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:36am Nov 24, 2011 6:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes we have indeed reached a "make or break" moment as far as sovereign debt is concerned. Obviously this game of chicken cannot go on forever. However, I feel a move towards integration would take too much time to implement seeing as it will need treaty changes and ratification by all 17 EZ member states. Perhaps the mere mention that they have a plan to come up with a plan for more integration would be enough, but if memory serves me correctly, they have already spun that record to no avail. On top of that there is the political credibility...
I agree with everything you said and it should play out exactly as you say, BUT, remember what happened in October. We should not underestimate the power of the enormous number of shorts covering at the same time due to a hopium announcement. It will happen. What form it will take we donīt know, but you can bet it will happen and I venture it will happen in the next few days.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,779
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:37am Nov 24, 2011 6:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
The sheep leading the sheep
There may be many levels of sheep leaders.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,780
  • Nov 24, 2011 6:38am Nov 24, 2011 6:38am
Quoting Alorente
I agree with everything you said and it should play out exactly as you say, BUT, remember what happened in October. We should not underestimate the power of the enormous number of shorts covering at the same time due to a hopium announcement. It will happen. What form it will take we donīt know, but you can bet it will happen and I venture it will happen in the next few days.
Yes I fully understand. The only question is how far the correction will go.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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