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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #11,741
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:53am Nov 24, 2011 4:53am
Quoting Alorente
I donīt think the Fed/ECB will let that happen again. There are silver bullets in case they are needed. Money printing (QE3) and Eurobonds. The announcement of either would immediately spark a huge rally in the markets and the euro. I bet you they are being considered as we speak in case things begin to get out of hand.
yes expect the unexpected. the black swan. at least we're ready for massive profit if it does.

more and more dates tommorow. will update on that as it arrives

how u doing sir alo?

hows ur longs? treating u well?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,742
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:55am Nov 24, 2011 4:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
EuroBonds will not fly without tighter fiscal integration ...
I am with totally with you. As usuall .

But anyway. My question was more concerned on the German grip of ECB. ECB has no reason for beeing bullish and it was so far.

Do you see it possible that Germans are loosing grip and ECB will join us anytime soon and become bearish?

This question resulted from sisse pointing out bank run pretty close. So ECB could join us much sooner than expected.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,743
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:55am Nov 24, 2011 4:55am
Quoting FXMindset
Say hello to Bear
Close my long From 1.3325 @ 1.3365 for 2%
Hi bear!

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #11,744
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:58am Nov 24, 2011 4:58am
Quoting AaronWard
Depends on leverage. I assume you are somewhat more bearish on the Dow than two days ago. I don't see how the ECB is going to be able to set a floor... or even why they should bother. Growth is not going to save them, but the evil triplets of devaluation, monetizing debt and inflation might.

Growth is pretty much impossible at this point in time. For the economies of Greece and Spain to start to grow they need to either be more efficient than the Germans or less expensive than the Chinese. Just matching efficiency or cost wont do it because...
Well I was referring to a floor in case the EZ dissolves. We may not see sub 1.2x levels as if they decide to break up the ECB will set a hard floor (SNB kind of band) to make the transition.

Agree on Growth.

I am not TA bearish at all in the ES as I mentioned yesterday in our conversation. However, I am not naive and FA trigger of that size (banking sector collapsing) will be more than enough to clear all those levels we talk yesterday. Been here for too long, and done that too (getting caught on the wrong side just for the sake of TA) to dismiss such and event.

We'll see, with CME close today there is nothing much to see in the ES. We may not even see a test of the key 1150x.x until next week....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,745
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:00am Nov 24, 2011 5:00am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I am with totally with you. As usuall .

But anyway. My question was more concerned on the German grip of ECB. ECB has no reason for beeing bullish and it was so far.

Do you see it possible that Germans are loosing grip and ECB will join us anytime soon and become bearish?

This question resulted from sisse pointing out bank run pretty close. So ECB could join us much sooner than expected.

T
If the ECB does not go bear, the market will do it for them and they will lose control.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,746
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:01am Nov 24, 2011 5:01am
Btw, for the zoomed in guys, we do have a nice one bearish H1 candle right now.

Edit: and 33588 S/R takes strenght.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,747
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:03am Nov 24, 2011 5:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
If the ECB does not go bear, the market will do it for them and they will lose control.
Ahh, what a great moment would that be. Moodys are with me, Fitch are with me, Murdoch is with me. Cmon Draghi, join the parade you GS bastard.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,748
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:05am Nov 24, 2011 5:05am
Hey Tom, you did it for me again. Somehow our exchange caused me to take an additional position at 1.3397. Just closed it out

Keep bearing us on your back
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,749
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:09am Nov 24, 2011 5:09am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw, for the zoomed in guys, we do have a nice one bearish H1 candle right now.
There is still unfinished business at 1.3430/40 area so at minimum I expect price to test it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,750
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:09am Nov 24, 2011 5:09am
Quoting sisse
Well I was referring to a floor in case the EZ dissolves. We may not see sub 1.2x levels as if they decide to break up the ECB will set a hard floor (SNB kind of band) to make the transition.

Agree on Growth.

I am not TA bearish at all in the ES as I mentioned yesterday in our conversation. However, I am not naive and FA trigger of that size (banking sector collapsing) will be more than enough to clear all those levels we talk yesterday. Been here for too long, and done that too (getting caught on the wrong side just for the sake of TA) to dismiss...
TA is bearish for me. Just too many similar patterns over the last 100 years. I think the bear market rally is different from the bear rally (dead cat bounce).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3099...market-rallies
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,751
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:14am Nov 24, 2011 5:14am
Quoting AaronWard
Hey Tom, you did it for me again. Somehow our exchange caused me to take an additional position at 1.3397. ...
GZ man! Poor cowardish me. I aint able to enter at this point. I am too afraid of that US holliday issue and possible intervention. I still hope for retrace to 361 area, but sisse just weakened my bias of this level, so I may consider entering around 3447.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,752
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:21am Nov 24, 2011 5:21am
I have just thought of brilliant conspiracy theory. Draghi has to be forced to become bearish since he cooperates with GS, who have lots of debt fixed in Europe and when EUR weakens they would loose. That is ofc just in case the loans are denominated in EUR. In case they were denominated in USD, Draghi will become bearish very very soon.

Edit: Hmmm, now I wonder. It seems very possible that those loans will be denominated in USD. I guess you know where I am heading.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,753
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:23am Nov 24, 2011 5:23am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Anyway. ECB still has something like 194 Bn to sterilize from SMP operations. They probably didnt sterilize it so far because of that liquidity issue. We all know that ECB should enhance money supply and weaken EUR, but goal of ECB so far was to strenghten EUR and I think it is because of heavy German influence on ECB. But if we assume Germans are loosing grip and yesterdays failed auction was another strike to their strenght, we could predict ECB will soon stop beeing bullish and will be working on devaluating of EUR.

Would be really glad if...
morning folks, was at the Dr. with my 11 month old baby girl this morning so am only checking in now.

Just a quick point on the ECB. The primary goal of the ECB was/is to control inflation. As far as they are concerned once inflation is kept low, then they are doing their job correctly.

Now obviously things have changed, we have had reckless government spending coupled with reckless bank lending. Everyone has to shoulder some of the blame.
patience is a virtue
  • #11,754
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:30am Nov 24, 2011 5:30am
Pic from Goldman.
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,755
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:37am Nov 24, 2011 5:37am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Pic from Goldman.
The sheep leading the sheep
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,756
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:37am Nov 24, 2011 5:37am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
GZ man! Poor cowardish me. I aint able to enter at this point. I am too afraid of that US holliday issue and possible intervention. I still hope for retrace to 361 area, but sisse just weakened my bias of this level, so I may consider entering around 3447.
... I am looking at 1.390xx test before years end as soon as Germany jumps on board ...lol

GL bro. I am flat and done trading for the day.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,757
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:45am Nov 24, 2011 5:45am
Quoting sisse
... I am looking at 1.390xx test before years end as soon as Germany jumps on board ...lol

GL bro. I am flat and done trading for the day.

sisse
Sisse,
In what context do you mention "Germany jumps on board"? Are you suggesting that Germany will give in on the Eurobond idea without fiscal integration or intrusive fiscal governance of the weaker EZ members?
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,758
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:46am Nov 24, 2011 5:46am
Trying long again @ 1.3380 Risk 1% Sl 1.3360 TP : Manual
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #11,759
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:48am Nov 24, 2011 5:48am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
GZ man! Poor cowardish me. I aint able to enter at this point. I am too afraid of that US holliday issue and possible intervention. I still hope for retrace to 361 area, but sisse just weakened my bias of this level, so I may consider entering around 3447.
I have this advanced technique know as the "ass wipe".

I am comfortable taking happy little 20 pip scalps at low leverage off of key resistances at the least sign of weakness. Actually, I close out half at 10 pips and the other half at 20 pips. Sometimes it doesn't work out and I just leave it as part of the underwater crowd.

I then wait for the dominant trend to come and "wipe my ass". By that I mean that sooner or later, it will revisit 1.333 and close out the few positions underwater.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,760
  • Nov 24, 2011 5:53am Nov 24, 2011 5:53am
Just looking at the 8 hrs EUR USD feeling touching the bottom @ 1.31x is still pending.
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