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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #11,721
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:46am Nov 24, 2011 3:46am
Quoting michaelnew
moved into green territory as from 1.3405, everything up from here is profit. Nice feeling to be out of water
The fun is just beginning in my view. The RSI is looking really strong and may breakout in the next 4 hours.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,722
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:54am Nov 24, 2011 3:54am
Quoting Alorente
The fun is just beginning in my view. The RSI is looking really strong and may breakout in the next 4 hours.

really looking forward to it
  • #11,723
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:56am Nov 24, 2011 3:56am
Quoting Alorente
The fun is just beginning in my view. The RSI is looking really strong and may breakout in the next 4 hours.
Break where mate and what TF reference are you talking about?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,724
  • Nov 24, 2011 3:58am Nov 24, 2011 3:58am
Quoting Alorente
The fun is just beginning in my view. The RSI is looking really strong and may breakout in the next 4 hours.

well,

price is forming a base AHEAD of the resistance, giving incentives to push through the 1.343 level....could be interesting...need to keep positive sentiment up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.png Size: 29 KB
  • #11,725
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:01am Nov 24, 2011 4:01am
S&P H4 chart is showing three straight green bullish divergence arrows on the Trix. The RSI has broken out of its downtrend line. I expect price to retrace to the 61.8% Fib level of 1228, which coincides nicely with the 200SMA (Blue Line). This in turn will carry the euro higher and should drop the USD Index to 76-76.50 level. All of this should happen by Dec. 15th or so.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s & p - h4.jpg Size: 110 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,726
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:03am Nov 24, 2011 4:03am
Quoting Alorente
S&P H4 chart is showing three straight green bullish divergence arrows on the Trix. The RSI has broken out of its downtrend line. I expect price to retrace to the 61.8% Fib level of 1228, which coincides nicely with the 200SMA (Blue Line). This in turn will carry the euro higher and should drop the USD Index to 76-76.50 level. All of this should happen by Dec. 15th or so.
Ok I see but CME and NY are closed today so it may have to wait till Friday at least if not the weekly roll.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,727
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:04am Nov 24, 2011 4:04am
Quoting sisse
Break where mate and what TF reference are you talking about?

sisse
H4 chart. See attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd h4.jpg Size: 120 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,728
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:12am Nov 24, 2011 4:12am
Quoting Alorente
H4 chart. See attached.
I mentioned in the other thread. Watch-out for panic. "Dexia asking for emergency liquidity funds all over europe. It was just reported, but as Piters were showing yesterday, a run on banks across the world is a HUGE trigger for panic. A liquidity run is not easy to stop so politicians will not have anything to do if it triggers except, rescue the survivors after.... Watch out for banks running the show"

That can become huge if it doesn't stop straight away....

In any case, GL. Not worth to take that trade in H4 in my case. Daily/weekly combo will be a lot clearer and with less drawdown if that trade triggers.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,729
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:15am Nov 24, 2011 4:15am
Quoting sisse
I mentioned in the other thread. Watch-out for panic. "Dexia asking for emergency liquidity funds all over europe. It was just reported, but as Piters were showing yesterday, a run on banks across the world is a HUGE trigger for panic. A liquidity run is not easy to stop so politicians will not have anything to do if it triggers except, rescue the survivors after.... Watch out for banks running the show"

That can become huge if it doesn't stop straight away....

In any case, GL. Not worth to take that trade in H4 in my case. Daily/weekly...
The solution to liquidity problems can be a real headache. Last time we had one the Euro popped 1100 pips.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,730
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:15am Nov 24, 2011 4:15am
Quoting sisse
I mentioned in the other thread. Watch-out for panic. "Dexia asking for emergency liquidity funds all over europe....
Ty. Didnt hear that. But well, I wasnt reading news toay, I am just waiting to reload at 361 and already hold some shorts. I am awaiting panic anytime too. Nevertheless, how about the FED - ECB liquidity link? I think US hollidays are great time for ECB to intervene.

Diet: And not only ECB, but China as well.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,731
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:33am Nov 24, 2011 4:33am
italian bonds back at 7% again

just when you want the sentiment to pick up....
  • #11,732
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:34am Nov 24, 2011 4:34am
Quoting sisse
I mentioned in the other thread. Watch-out for panic. "Dexia asking for emergency liquidity funds all over europe. It was just reported, but as Piters were showing yesterday, a run on banks across the world is a HUGE trigger for panic. A liquidity run is not easy to stop so politicians will not have anything to do if it triggers except, rescue the survivors after.... Watch out for banks running the show"

That can become huge if it doesn't stop straight away....

In any case, GL. Not worth to take that trade in H4 in my case. Daily/weekly...
I donīt think the Fed/ECB will let that happen again. There are silver bullets in case they are needed. Money printing (QE3) and Eurobonds. The announcement of either would immediately spark a huge rally in the markets and the euro. I bet you they are being considered as we speak in case things begin to get out of hand.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,733
  • Edited 4:39am Nov 24, 2011 4:34am | Edited 4:39am
Anyway. ECB still has something like 194 Bn to sterilize from SMP operations. They probably didnt sterilize it so far because of that liquidity issue. We all know that ECB should enhance money supply and weaken EUR, but goal of ECB so far was to strenghten EUR and I think it is because of heavy German influence on ECB. But if we assume Germans are loosing grip and yesterdays failed auction was another strike to their strenght, we could predict ECB will soon stop beeing bullish and will be working on devaluating of EUR.

Would be really glad if someone expanded. Especially you sisse.

Edit: Or Fool, while you joined us.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,734
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:39am Nov 24, 2011 4:39am
Quoting AaronWard
The solution to liquidity problems can be a real headache. Last time we had one the Euro popped 1100 pips.
Yeap ... Lehman and the other thousand of banks collapsing bars in the monthly chart is self-explanatory (and that was without EZ debt on the table).

The fall in the euro will be "peanuts" and will be limited to the Euro collapse in whatever ECB band/floor set for the process in comparison (in relative terms) with the other markets. Indexes, Gold or Oil will be the one to trade....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,735
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:40am Nov 24, 2011 4:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Anyway. ECB still has something like 194 Bn to sterilize from SMP operations. They probably didnt sterilize it so far because of that liquidity issue. We all know that ECB should enhance money supply and weaken EUR, but goal of ECB so far was to strenghten EUR and I think it is because of heavy German influence on ECB. But if we assume Germans are loosing grip and yesterdays failed auction was another strike to their strenght, we could predict ECB will soon stop beeing bullish and will be working on devaluating of EUR.

Would be glad if someone...


You have to figure that 197 Billion is quantitative easing until they sterilize it. And how are they going to do that when they are having a liquidity crisis?

I wonder what the price of gas (and inflation) would be like if the Euro fell to parity.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,736
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:45am Nov 24, 2011 4:45am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Anyway. ECB still has something like 194 Bn to sterilize from SMP operations. They probably didnt sterilize it so far because of that liquidity issue. We all know that ECB should enhance money supply and weaken EUR, but goal of ECB so far was to strenghten EUR and I think it is because of heavy German influence on ECB. But if we assume Germans are loosing grip and yesterdays failed auction was another strike to their strenght, we could predict ECB will soon stop beeing bullish and will be working on devaluating of EUR.

Would be glad if someone...
EuroBonds will not fly without tighter fiscal integration or intrusive fiscal governance of profligate member states. For that to happen, we will first have to see some treaty changes. At this point it is more likely that PIIGS will fly. The fact is that there is no short term solution. Only quick temporary fixes that become less effective every time.

Anyway, regardless of what happens in the debt crisis issue, the Euro still has to fall to a level that will help EZ member states become more competitive. The EZ is entering a recession. All the indicators are screaming it and even the ECB is jawboning about it. The only ones in denial are the muppets.

So the only question now is how low it will go. Either enough to make EZ member states more competitive, or all the way down to parity as the whole credit system crashes and freezes up.

My 2 cents.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,737
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:46am Nov 24, 2011 4:46am
Quoting Alorente
I donīt think the Fed/ECB will let that happen again. There are silver bullets in case they are needed. Money printing (QE3) and Eurobonds. The announcement of either would immediately spark a huge rally in the markets and the euro. I bet you they are being considered as we speak in case things begin to get out of hand.
Well I do agree. However, those arguments are only valid with the problems constrain to the euro debt crisis and therefore the European economic slowdown.

However, if you include banks (liquidity) in the pictures that a whole different beast. This scenario is the one the US and all really want to avoid. If liquidity problems spread across the banking sector, forget it mate, the euro debt problems will be nothing in comparison and the effects will pass from the European level to a worldwide crisis.

Let'see how it pans out. Dexia was/is a disaster so it is not unexpected, but if you check bank stocks (major banks) in the US and Europe the picture is very gloomy. A small shake can make things very nasty ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #11,738
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:47am Nov 24, 2011 4:47am
Quoting sisse
Yeap ... Lehman and the other thousand of banks collapsing bars in the monthly chart is self-explanatory (and that was without EZ debt on the table).

The fall in the euro will be "peanuts" and will be limited to the Euro collapse in whatever ECB band/floor set for the process in comparison (in relative terms) with the other markets. Indexes, Gold or Oil will be the one to trade....

sisse
Depends on leverage. I assume you are somewhat more bearish on the Dow than two days ago. I don't see how the ECB is going to be able to set a floor... or even why they should bother. Growth is not going to save them, but the evil triplets of devaluation, monetizing debt and inflation might.

Growth is pretty much impossible at this point in time. For the economies of Greece and Spain to start to grow they need to either be more efficient than the Germans or less expensive than the Chinese. Just matching efficiency or cost wont do it because there will be no incentive to move factories.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,739
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:47am Nov 24, 2011 4:47am
Quoting AaronWard
You have to figure that 197 Billion is quantitative easing until they sterilize it. And how are they going to do that when they are having a liquidity crisis?

I wonder what the price of gas (and inflation) would be like if the Euro fell to parity.
Yes, thats what I was saying. Germans have (maybe had) tight grip on ECB and they didnt want weak EUR. The fact that they didnt sterilize so far tends me to think that Germans are loosing grip and ECB may become bearish soon.

Bad luck I dont have enough time to explore other markets. I would be long term buying gold and oil very probably.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,740
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:52am Nov 24, 2011 4:52am
Say hello to Bear
Close my long From 1.3325 @ 1.3365 for 2%
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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