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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #11,461
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:04am Nov 23, 2011 8:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
I am not sure what kind of harmonic pattern that is. Perhaps you are seeing it as such because you have 3 long positions underwater and you are "Hoping" it is a bullish pattern.

It's a variation of the "222" Gartley bullish pattern, as described in Larry Pesavento's "Trade What Yo See". The only difference is that in this chart the second high is higher than the first one. In the initial pattern, the second high must be lower than the first one. I still consider it valid because the second high, in this chart, was generated by sentiment (I'm pretty sure it was the IMF news that it will support France, but not Italy, etc), the increase would have been lower without that.

As for the "hope" part, I may open up a separate thread on that, or on the entire psychology behind speculative trading, which is entirely built on some type of "hope", but I will just say it's not about that. I'm not biased towards EUR, not bearish, nor bullish, I just want to make some pips by following its moves. And that's what I see, I may be right or I may be wrong. Have no idea, but I trust myself enough to put my money where my mouth is. Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn

As for being underwater, we all are at some point. If it goes over my money management rules, I will close. This is what I did with my shorts yesterday, the trades were over my acceptable loss level, so I closed. Guess what? The TP level, 1.3880 was reached today Ain't life funny sometimes?
  • #11,462
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:07am Nov 23, 2011 8:07am
Quoting michaelnew

As for being underwater, we all are at some point. If it goes over my money management rules, I will close. This is what I did with my shorts yesterday, the trades were over my acceptable loss level, so I closed. Guess what? The TP level, 1.3880 was reached today Ain't life funny sometimes?
Yep. It's amazing how many times you can be right and still lose.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,463
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:07am Nov 23, 2011 8:07am
Quoting lovepips
Hi FX - I've blown 2 accounts (it's a bummer) and then I read Jesse Livermore (how to trade stocks), Tom Williams (the undeclared secrets that drive the stock market) & Richard Wyckoff (studies in tape reading)...

If I was to pick one book, it would be Tom Williams (he explains Volume Spread Analysis). My pip count is improving (still get things wrong, but now I kill them quickly).

Stick with it and remember it's not a race.
I am on my way to blow my first account !!!! But i hope there are chances for survival.....

And i've just got a book today by Al Brooks.... That was suggested by Aaron... And i would definitely consider what you have suggested... And i must thank you for that...
  • #11,464
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:08am Nov 23, 2011 8:08am
Quoting lumesh
Printing money definitely has all the basics to lead to hyperinflation, it's the EXPANSION of your BALANCE SHEET for the benefit of the economy that doesn't. I know you are laughing but there's actually a difference

The difference is in the mindset. See, hyperinflation is nothing but an irrational behaviour from the crowd. And that behaviour simply needs a catalyst. That catalyst today can be the mighty run on gov bonds.

The single most important difference between the FED's "money printing" and ECB's potential "money printing" is that...
Seems to be that neither one is 100% safe. In the balance, I support the US Fed's decision and I think that printing is the only way out of the European mess other than default. And printing is the less painful option.

PT-- what about me...I belong to neither the half brain or the full brain crowd... you can clearly see from my avatar that I have no brain at all...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,465
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:11am Nov 23, 2011 8:11am
Quoting FX Tsunami
I am on my way to blow my first account !!!! But i hope there are chances for survival.....

And i've just got a book today by Al Brooks.... That was suggested by Aaron... And i would definitely consider what you have suggested... And i must thank you for that...
Glad to hear it. It is tough going. You need to treat it like a text book. I get about 3-4 pages down a day. But always there is something valuable in pretty much every paragraph. I can't imagine finishing it in less than three months of slow, hard slog. And for the record I am very good at school in all shapes and forms.

Be sure to ask about anything you don't understand.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,466
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:14am Nov 23, 2011 8:14am
Quoting AaronWard
Seems to be that neither one is 100% safe. In the balance, I support the US Fed's decision and I think that printing is the only way out of the European mess other than default. And printing is the less painful option.

PT-- what about me...I belong to neither the half brain or the full brain crowd... you can clearly see from my avatar that I have no brain at all...
You do in fact have a brain Aaron. It's full of question marks (or at least one giant one). IMO it's the best brain. Open to learning.

ADD: There are no such things as stupid questions... only stupid answers.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,467
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:17am Nov 23, 2011 8:17am
Quoting AaronWard
Glad to hear it. It is tough going. You need to treat it like a text book. I get about 3-4 pages down a day. But always there is something valuable in pretty much every paragraph. I can't imagine finishing it in less than three months of slow, hard slog. And for the record I am very good at school in all shapes and forms.

Be sure to ask about anything you don't understand.
Thank you!!!!

I dont mind reading it slow, but i've decided not to move without understanding.... And i've deicided strongly not to move out of FX... Will be here always... learning, learning and always learning....
  • #11,468
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:20am Nov 23, 2011 8:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
You do in fact have a brain Aaron. It's full of question marks (or at least one giant one). IMO it's the best brain. Open to learning.

ADD: There are no such things as stupid questions... only stupid answers.
Aw shucks

And dont tempted me with the challenge of coming up with stupid questions... they are flowing to my brain even as I type...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #11,469
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:23am Nov 23, 2011 8:23am
Quoting lumesh
Printing money definitely has all the basics to lead to hyperinflation, it's the EXPANSION of your BALANCE SHEET for the benefit of the economy that doesn't. I know you are laughing but there's actually a difference

The difference is in the mindset. See, hyperinflation is nothing but an irrational behaviour from the crowd. And that behaviour simply needs a catalyst. That catalyst today can be the mighty run on gov bonds.

The single most important difference between the FED's "money printing" and ECB's potential "money printing" is that...
I respect your post and your thoughts. I can add to it on the weekend during quiet time. Have a good day and thanks for your intelligent post.
  • #11,470
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:25am Nov 23, 2011 8:25am
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: govbonds.jpg Size: 73 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,471
  • Nov 23, 2011 8:48am Nov 23, 2011 8:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
There are no such things as stupid questions... only stupid answers.
When one of my teachers at highschool said it, the question was asked:

"If I stand on tracks and catch overhead lines, will I start moving forward like a tram?"

He never-ever mentioned anything about stupid questions
  • #11,472
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:00am Nov 23, 2011 9:00am
Quoting Blobik
When one of my teachers at highschool said it, the question was asked:

"If I stand on tracks and catch overhead lines, will I start moving forward like a tram?"

He never-ever mentioned anything about stupid questions
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,473
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:09am Nov 23, 2011 9:09am
Germany’s Bond-Auction Fail: Here’s What It Means

Investors are fleeing the euro this morning like it’s a mutant alligator that just crawled out of the sewer drain, pushing it down nearly 1% to $1.34, following an absolute flop of a German bond auction.

Given that Germany is one of the world’s last safe havens and Europe’s pillar of strength, should investors be freaking out so much?

The short answer: Kind of.

Germany was only able to find buyers for a little more than half of the 6 billion euros’ worth of 10-year bunds it was trying to sell to the market this morning. read more...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,474
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:09am Nov 23, 2011 9:09am
let's see if eur starts to rise now with a lot of stops taken out.
  • #11,475
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:21am Nov 23, 2011 9:21am
Quoting lumesh
let's see if eur starts to rise now with a lot of stops taken out.
I feel that 1.3340 (161.8% Fibo) is more likely and eventually 1.3310 or wherever the falling channel support lands.

See M30 chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m30.gif Size: 40 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #11,476
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:22am Nov 23, 2011 9:22am
Quoting Pat Mustard
That bearish submarine pattern you called yesterday worked a treat Tom :-)
Hehe, yes it did. But unfortunately for me, I have lost my bias. I have several excuses for it , but the main one is just plain stupidity. I think my stupidity resulted from multitasking with work + not sleeping. I was preparing for Thursdays possible intervention and booked all shorts from 35 - 361 area around London open at 3457. I made something like 630 pips, but I am moron coz I should have waited for 338. I still have 1900 pips floating, but those are shorts from 3685 zone and above and are waiting for lower levels. So I have nothing to cover here. Well, stupid me.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,477
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:24am Nov 23, 2011 9:24am
Hi all, just a question for anyone using MT4 platform. price has frozen on all charts I cant open or close orders. I can do everything else though anyone got any ideas why this happened?
  • #11,478
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:24am Nov 23, 2011 9:24am
Quoting jeff_b
Tom, can you work your magic once more?
I am trying to press it with my will as low as I can, but I am probably too tired so the beast aint listening.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,479
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:26am Nov 23, 2011 9:26am
Quoting AaronWard
I thought I would share one of my chart techniques with the world.
That is a good one technique.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #11,480
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:27am Nov 23, 2011 9:27am
Quoting knoholygrail
Alorente

You have strong convictions concerning direction using your technical methods and guidelines. I am not posting this to tell you that you are wrong or should change anything you do.

I am a very strong fundamental trader with a excellent understanding of human nature. I definitely use technicals to see the support and resistance and the pyschology of the market.

I have been out of the market all in cash so I have a clear mind and no bias. I have an opinion for sure that the EUR/USD pair is heading down. As PipTrapper mentioned earlier...
Excellent and informative post. Thank you for taking the time to write it.

Cheers.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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