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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #10,941
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:02am Nov 21, 2011 10:02am
Quoting Blobik
That's the piece of information about FX I mastered absolutely Another billions of trillions of info to master await.

PT, What do you think about crazy idea of exchanging bonds and attempting to decrease EZ countries foreign debt by changing it into "internally owned" debt Why would that not work? (I assume It would not, as if it was to work, sb would come up with that much faster than I did).
It's not that simple. If you had a Mercedes in Italy, would you exchange it for a Fiat in Germany?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,942
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:04am Nov 21, 2011 10:04am
pretty good day for me overall, scalping the five minute chart and using the power of price reference, and standard deviations from fair market value.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #10,943
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:04am Nov 21, 2011 10:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
What a waste of a day for me. I think I made more money on my bank deposit account today which makes a total of 0.125% p.a. interest
Should try some commodities, I guess my demo might have already increased even 10% with my oil short from Friday .

But the position itself violated my rules a bit. It passed my 'mental SL' level, but I didn't kill it just to check how far it will go against me so I know how small positions to use with my super-poor entry points. Seems it needs to be half of my entry. Plus, probably I should enter trade on demo and enter one on live only when demo trade is enough underwater . Impatience problems, again. So I guess it does not count
  • #10,944
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:06am Nov 21, 2011 10:06am
eur is clearly outperforming equities....go figure
  • #10,945
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:06am Nov 21, 2011 10:06am
Quoting the redlion
pretty good day for me overall, scalping the five minute chart and using the power of price reference, and standard deviations from fair market value.
Yes it was an excellent morning in the M5 world.
Congrats Red
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,946
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:07am Nov 21, 2011 10:07am
Euro is not acting right today, I think we are seeing the end. The banks are liquidating their final usd assets and buying euro. The fed could also be offering there swaps again. To be down over 300 on the dow and only have a 50 pip drop or so there is something up. I am calling a big drop to down some point this week.
  • #10,947
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:10am Nov 21, 2011 10:10am
Quoting lumesh
eur is clearly outperforming equities....go figure
More like it is outperforming everything right now. However, it is still down for the day. It seems quite obvious that someone is buying Euros in large quantities. Perhaps more middle eastern interest.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,948
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:11am Nov 21, 2011 10:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's not that simple. If you had a Mercedes in Italy, would you exchange it for a Fiat in Germany?
Yep, I guess it is just that one bond is not the same as other country bond, so it is hard to do freewillingly. Maybe Tom will master Goebbels speeches, so when we hit parity he will talk banks into this crazy plan and EZ will get saved, and we will trade this great plan from the inside

Okay, just kidding. But if EZ countries blackmailed the banks with "do as planned or no bailout in the future" I wonder how would it all go... Probably none of the politics has guts or is not crazy enough to do such thing

Another crazy idea: maybe Germany will start selling their precious AAA bonds in increased quantities and buying PIIGS bonds for the money from their AAA bonds - they have lower yield, after all
  • #10,949
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:13am Nov 21, 2011 10:13am
Blobik - Your explanation is great so i took it a bit further.

This helps me understand a lot, too.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...sentiment.html
  • #10,950
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:14am Nov 21, 2011 10:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
More like it is outperforming everything right now. However, it is still down for the day. It seems quite obvious that someone is buying Euros in large quantities. Perhaps more middle eastern interest.
And I ask the question:

Who the hell broke the EUR submarine ?

I see it in much more simplified way; EUR was falling when everything was somehow managing to stall or even grow. So if you would look at price of US stocks in EUR, or oil in EUR, you would see them skyrocketing. We simply experience a correction... but this is probably a correction in EUR vs other risk assets.
  • #10,951
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:14am Nov 21, 2011 10:14am
my views on the euro
for discussion sake not as a trade strategy, i mean after all what matters is if we are position correctly when those orders hit the book.


i think the Euro needs a drastic reformation, it is simply unsustainable to have a currency that practically cripples weaker economies via trade imbalance.

but the fact of the matter is that with raising bond yields comes increased expense in servicing the debt of massive economies like Italy, Spain, and now France is targeted due to the toxic assets her banks are holding.

some how someone is going to have to pay for all this mess.

i think it is all about balance (easier said than done) how do you promote social fairness without creating parasites in society that will leech off of other people's work?

seems to me the middle class has a big brunt to bear in the US and in Europe

the super rich will find ways to keep and accumulate greater wealth, the "poor" will find ways to rob from the working class, in a shrinking middle class environment creating further divide in wealth allocation, creating further poverty and further promoting the leeching environment through choice or circumstances.

right now is a battle of the ugly sisters, who's money is worth less?

every one wants to undervalue their currencies, China via fixed pegg or control float, the US by QE, SNB by flooring, and BOJ by interventions,

who gets screwed the middle class again, seeing their purchasing power shrink and their bank accounts robbed by a phantom tax.

therefore one must protect the book at all cost in the forex market and outside
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #10,952
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:15am Nov 21, 2011 10:15am
Quoting zoul
Blobik - Your explanation is great so i took it a bit further.

This helps me understand a lot, too.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...sentiment.html
And between this two big green risk-on rectangles is the area called "taking profit".

ADD: Ooops this is a very long TF chart, so maybe calling that profit taking is not the best idea. But on lower TFs such corrections mean that sb got their money out of the table (and put it back on after priced returned to 'good entry area').

ADD2: Gold is sinking. Who increased the margins ? JK, but the mighty precious metal is taking a heavy beating! Wonder if it will breach the 1500's.
  • #10,953
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:20am Nov 21, 2011 10:20am
Woah big rally happening right here, what is going on?

38 pips and rising in the last 2mins! - someone get some vision on this or help us noobs understand what could be causing such a massive and sudden spike?
::Swarvy Pip Stealing nomad:: :-:Trading THV:Version 4 MTF Template!:-:
  • #10,954
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:21am Nov 21, 2011 10:21am
some one is buying euros, or selling dollars

either or, this bring the possibility of the euro being in fact at a low price viz a viz fair market value and not moving down further
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #10,955
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:22am Nov 21, 2011 10:22am
Quoting the redlion
my views on the euro
for discussion sake not as a trade strategy, i mean after all what matters is if we are position correctly when those orders hit the book.


i think the Euro needs a drastic reformation, it is simply unsustainable to have a currency that practically cripples weaker economies via trade imbalance.

but the fact of the matter is that with raising bond yields comes increased expense in servicing the debt of massive economies like Italy, Spain, and now France is targeted due to the toxic assets her banks are holding.

some how someone...
Nice to see you here bro. I definitely agree with you.
  • #10,956
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:23am Nov 21, 2011 10:23am
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  • #10,957
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:24am Nov 21, 2011 10:24am
Quoting the redlion
some one is buying euros, or selling dollars

either or, this bring the possibility of the euro being in fact at a low price viz a viz fair market value and not moving down further
Yep, sth smells here. Like a dead rat. Or a dead public budgets.

Gofer! Get some nice green pips
  • #10,958
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:27am Nov 21, 2011 10:27am
i'd be careful shorting

looking at the hourly chart yo use the area of 1.3440 offering suport and you got 1.36 as a resistance for now, shorting on this one is risky. step back re assess and enter when you see the picture clearer, opportunities will always be there.

remember the longer you stay, the more frequent you are in, the more risks you take, dont look at profit potential only. take into account that going into battle can get you killed, so its not just glory, but also death.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #10,959
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:28am Nov 21, 2011 10:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
More like it is outperforming everything right now. However, it is still down for the day. It seems quite obvious that someone is buying Euros in large quantities. Perhaps more middle eastern interest.
Please look at my post earlier this morning. There are events now going on behind the scenes that only those that are executing them understand. However those actions will then cause other actions in retaliation.

Until I can observe and discover what is really happening the best trade for myself is no trade. The fact that Dow is done substantial and EUR/USD going in the opposite way says it all for the moment. There are just too many unknowns now. Yet Gold is going down so we could be looking at liquidation of assets. Do not forget the MF Global mess and France downgrade situation and Greek debt and now November 23, 2011.

Those are my thoughts as of now. You cannot lose if you wait for the right moment to trade. These are dangerou s times worse than September
of 2008.

Have a good day fellow traders
  • #10,960
  • Nov 21, 2011 10:29am Nov 21, 2011 10:29am
Quoting Blobik

ADD2: Gold is sinking. Who increased the margins ? JK, but the mighty precious metal is taking a heavy beating! Wonder if it will breach the 1500's.
Nobody increased margins. However if you had a gold long to hedge an equity and you got margin called, you would have to liquidate your gold position when you got stopped out on your equity.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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