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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #10,441
  • Nov 18, 2011 2:53am Nov 18, 2011 2:53am
Quoting chodd22
Will a German U-boat torpedo that boat or will it rise with the tide?
It will sink without warning
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,442
  • Nov 18, 2011 2:55am Nov 18, 2011 2:55am
qas h4 chart
  • #10,443
  • Nov 18, 2011 2:56am Nov 18, 2011 2:56am
Quoting PipKiller
It's friday. It's been risk off all week. Time to book profits and take risk off table for the weekend which means a possible short covering rally.
I still keep in mind last Fryday. We need to be carefull for sure.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,444
  • Nov 18, 2011 2:57am Nov 18, 2011 2:57am
Quoting lumesh
I wonder if the catalyst would be Spain hitting 7% yield ?
I would look to the US for a catalyst. The "super committee" on deficit reduction offers a beacon of hope to Euro bears. The expectation is that they cant get it right. The lead up will be massive uncertainty that will create downward pressure on the US equity markets.

Following that we will get some drama. Who blinks... the Democrats or the Republicans. Hard to say. Republicans have bigger balls, but I have to think that there is much stronger public support for the Democratic position of "tax the rich, close corporate loopholes".

And then there will be all the follow up. Threatened downgrade and who knows, maybe an actual downgrade.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,445
  • Nov 18, 2011 2:59am Nov 18, 2011 2:59am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Absolutely my friend, 1600 floating . Hihihii. Booked 180 yesterday and @ 600 this week.

Btw, good point on that margin raise. That was very tricky move from Commodity exchanges resulting in hoax of comming bubble burst.

I dont think silver or gold bubble will burst anytime soon. Not unless trouble in EMU and US are solved. I even dare to say gold and silver may become part of the "currency" basket to denominate commodities which would move them further up. But thats just the sound of the far future.

T.

... 1600 ... I prefer not to think what lot size do you use, but with as little as 0.1 it would be my whole account Congrats.
  • #10,446
  • Nov 18, 2011 2:59am Nov 18, 2011 2:59am
Quoting AaronWard
I would look to the US ....
Right you are sir.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,447
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:01am Nov 18, 2011 3:01am
Quoting Blobik
... 1600 ... I prefer not to think what lot size do you use, but with as little as 0.1 it would be my whole account Congrats.
Even more little. Remember I am from Czech ? Average wage in here is like 1000 bucks per month. Thats not a lot.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,448
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:02am Nov 18, 2011 3:02am
18 Nov 2011
WHY THIS FOREX TRADE wins?
How I trade? Forex Trade Setup Explained.
A) Forex Trading Analysis:
1) Forex Technical Analysis

a) Key Level (Hourly Chart) @1.3540(Resistance)
b) Three failed rejection at the Key Level. Inverted hammer like Candlestick

Chart Pattern
2) Forex Fundamental Analysis:

a) N.A

B) Forex Trade Position Management

a) Sell Market @1.35031 @12:21:25 AM @ 18-Nov2011 Fri
b) Profit Target 1 @1.3473 @1:34:05 AM +30Pips
c) Stopped out @1.3487 @10:19:52 AM +16Pips
invtraks.com

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  • #10,449
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:04am Nov 18, 2011 3:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
There is trianguloid something forming at h4 chart, coming to an end. Wonder where will we go from here.
prepare torpedoes and missles!

If the risk off continues despite friday, then it seems we will keep a freefall until major technical level or some politician / CBanker will come up and say "we have found the money, Silvio accidentaly thrown few bilion to the can at one of his bunga bunga parties, but it was restored from the junk yard successfully"

Or any other hopium hippie event. The bad thing about such events is, that the more unlikely they seem, the harder they strike and they usually do when it seems they is no way anything can change...
  • #10,450
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:08am Nov 18, 2011 3:08am
Quoting Blobik
..
Or any other hopium hippie event. The bad thing about such events is, that the more unlikely they seem, the harder they strike and they usually do when it seems they is no way anything can change...
I am really afraid of that moment. Desperate deathbed spasm of bulls could come anytime.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #10,451
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:13am Nov 18, 2011 3:13am
Quoting Blobik
prepare torpedoes and missles!

If the risk off continues despite friday, then it seems we will keep a freefall until major technical level or some politician / CBanker will come up and say "we have found the money, Silvio accidentaly thrown few bilion to the can at one of his bunga bunga parties, but it was restored from the junk yard successfully"

Or any other hopium hippie event. The bad thing about such events is, that the more unlikely they seem, the harder they strike and they usually do when it seems they is no way...
made about 100+ on eur wild swings today. good enough im done. good luck to everyone else.

lunar cycle time

15:15 GMT/UTC.

that is around 10 am Us time. watch PA around then.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,452
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:14am Nov 18, 2011 3:14am
Intra day trades both ways - higher than usual volume during Frankies Hour - FX Live quote:
ECB buying Italian bonds (aggressively)


Now I seem to remember that there's €1.3Bn of Greek T-bills maturing today.....I wonder what effect that will have.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,453
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:17am Nov 18, 2011 3:17am
Opened my second short batch of 3 at 1.3517.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,454
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:17am Nov 18, 2011 3:17am
hoping for this level (77.71) to be reached in USD index.
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  • #10,455
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:20am Nov 18, 2011 3:20am
Quoting lumesh
hoping for this level (77.71) to be reached in USD index.
lumesh is going down deep down further down. think of 76.50s.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #10,456
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:21am Nov 18, 2011 3:21am
This chart shows the EUR/CAD on the 4 hour chart for the last nine weeks. Clearly the Euro is bullish. So is the European economy in better shape than the Canadian?
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Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,457
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:24am Nov 18, 2011 3:24am
OK time to test my economics. Intuitively I first think that buying bonds or increasing domestic credit on the balance sheet should have the effect of increasing the monetary base/weakening the Euro.

So then my understanding goes that they will sterilize the bond buying by unloading foreign reserves (such as USD) so that the net effect on the balance sheet is zero, therefore the Euro strengthens.

Is this right?
"Don't Panic..."
  • #10,458
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:25am Nov 18, 2011 3:25am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Even more little. Remember I am from Czech ? Average wage in here is like 1000 bucks per month. Thats not a lot.
Don't worry, in Poland too. I just thought that your Tom waves made you rich already and that you use sth bigger . When I sometimes hear about 1 lot positions, I am like wow. Who has so much money to use that big size? And some use even more...

Well, probably everything is about being able to set SL to 1% (or 2% or 5% or any other, that your system allows) risk, if you set SL and see that you would be risking your risk-level with 1 lot, go for one lot, if with 2 lots, go for 2, if with 3 microlots, use 3 microlots...

And we got again to compounding .

Oil and gold recover. EUR still struggles with its resistance level. If oil gets back above 100 and back into the rising channel, then I will get completely confused. One thing that is certain, since Wednesday / Tuesday everything is moving strange... Either something is in the air, or traders just get really nervous and markets goes crazy crashing recovering and so on... What keeps EURUSD in range.
  • #10,459
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:26am Nov 18, 2011 3:26am
Quoting AaronWard
This chart shows the EUR/CAD on the 4 hour chart for the last nine weeks. Clearly the Euro is bullish. So is the European economy in better shape than the Canadian?
Oil drop has possibly sth to do with it? If you had EUR/Foil chart it would look similar, I think.

ADD: Except for that oil started recovering. But EUR started rising at the same time...
  • #10,460
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:30am Nov 18, 2011 3:30am
Quoting Halifax
OK time to test my economics. Intuitively I first think that buying bonds or increasing domestic credit on the balance sheet should have the effect of increasing the monetary base/weakening the Euro.

So then my understanding goes that they will sterilize the bond buying by unloading foreign reserves (such as USD) so that the net effect on the balance sheet is zero, therefore the Euro strengthens.

Is this right?
I don't think so.

The ECB sterilizes the bond purchases by offering fixed term tenders (in Euros) paying a max 1.25%
They do this to absorb extra money supply in circulation and thereby sterilize the effects of buying up the bonds.
The only problem is that as of last Monday they had accumulated a €187 Billion net balance of unsterilized money. This amounts to an easing effect (or broadening of the money base)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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