Attachments: EurAnalysis

EurAnalysis

#10,421
Nov 18, 2011 2:05am Nov 18, 2011 2:05am

bumapatria
Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts

Quoting Tom_D_Trader

Disliked

Good morning. Price is still ranging down there and recently retested 3495 but was unable to close H1 above. I still consider this a falling formation and am loading more shorts.

Trades placed, going to work.

Good luck all,

T.

Ignored

i hope ur demo trading.

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?

#10,422
Nov 18, 2011 2:19am Nov 18, 2011 2:19am

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting bumapatria

Disliked

i hope ur demo trading.

Ignored

Buma, in this thread it is quite sufficient to announce what you are trading and why.
There is no need to caution others on what they are doing. Please just stick to the objectives of this thread. We are not providing a signal service here.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#10,423
Nov 18, 2011 2:22am Nov 18, 2011 2:22am

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Here is a useful chart for anyone who would like to know what traders at Oanda are doing. I find it quite representative of what most retail traders are doing. I know retail traders are a very small part of the market but it's nice to know these things anyway.

Source: http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...osition-ratios

.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: FOPR.jpg
Size: 213 KB

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#10,424
Nov 18, 2011 2:25am Nov 18, 2011 2:25am

lumesh
Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

Here is a useful chart for anyone who would like to know what traders at Oanda are doing. I find it quite representative of what most retail traders are doing. I know retail traders are a very small part of the market but it's nice to know these things anyway.

.

Ignored

yeah, but in today's headline driven environment the underlying rationality doesn't work right now. Retail is net short and the price is actually falling

#10,425
Nov 18, 2011 2:26am Nov 18, 2011 2:26am

lumesh
Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts

I wonder if the catalyst would be Spain hitting 7% yield ?

#10,426
Nov 18, 2011 2:26am Nov 18, 2011 2:26am

iqyu5an
Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Always manage your risk & leverage | 7,339 Posts

did u see % of buyer & seller week ago or 3 days ago , compared to current data ?
compare it so we can see what happened

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

Here is a useful chart for anyone who would like to know what traders at Oanda are doing. I find it quite representative of what most retail traders are doing. I know retail traders are a very small part of the market but it's nice to know these things anyway.

.

Ignored

not euphoria follower

#10,427
Nov 18, 2011 2:28am Nov 18, 2011 2:28am

Tom_D_Trader
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts

Quoting Blobik

Disliked

I start wondering, what would you do If price started rallying Keep shorting the sucka?...

Ignored

If price starts rallying, I am going to short it all the way up to 368. I have pending shorts at 3537, 3571, 3582, 3607 and 3666

"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates

#10,428
Nov 18, 2011 2:30am Nov 18, 2011 2:30am

Blobik
| Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Trader | 654 Posts

Quoting bumapatria

Disliked

i hope ur demo trading.

Ignored

Don't worry, Tom's "short like a moron" style causes markets to tumble down each time he steps in

.

And probably Tom has enough floating profit and booked profit to let himself some mad shorting, am I right my Czech bro

?

And, last but not least, today I have no idea where everything will go. During Asian (on its open) most commodities spiked down quite violently, but they recovered by now. So either this "commodity shock" that beat them down will cause them to just move the rising channels lower (establish new ones), or this is just a break in a freefall. Some already started saying that silver will go down to 20$, I think since may silver flash crash and the one that was 2 months ago people got obsessed with "crashing silver mania", but both occured when marign requirement were raised, so it is hard to tell if metals and oil gave up yet.

The fact that commodities tumble might make EURUSD long better (at least for a very very short while) than AUDUSD long or USDCAD short... Madness.

#10,429
Nov 18, 2011 2:31am Nov 18, 2011 2:31am

Tom_D_Trader
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

Here is a useful chart for anyone who would like to know what traders at Oanda are doing...

Ignored

Damn, they are starting to short at Oanda, I would better change my view and go long before FI manage to do a short squeeze

"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates

#10,430
Nov 18, 2011 2:32am Nov 18, 2011 2:32am

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting lumesh

Disliked

yeah, but in today's headline driven environment the underlying rationality doesn't work right now. Retail is net short and the price is actually falling

Ignored

Actually this morning the price rallied 75 pips fro Asian open before pulling back a bit. Regardless I was not suggesting the info be used as a contrarion indicator. I was more so displaying the data for others to come up with their own conclusions

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#10,431
Nov 18, 2011 2:34am Nov 18, 2011 2:34am

AaronWard
Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,576 Posts | Online Now

Quoting Blobik

Disliked

Well, I think it was last month. But if they wanted to debase USD powerfully, stealth QE is not the best option, the best option would be pegging USD with the EUR at 1.50 Swiss did that and look how nice it worked

Okay, but seriously, stealth QE is always a risk. They did it once, they may do it again.

Judging from 15M chart Tom's bear keeps watching the zone. Does this creature ever sleep?

Ignored

Man, what a headache. Pegging the USD to the Euro. Why not print more money. That way you get the money without the headache.

I think the deal was cut in September, but it took place in October.
Bears and bulls both.

Buma,

Ironically the Euro plays third fiddle to the USD and the US equity markets when the EUR/USD moves.

If you look at the higher time frame DXZ charts, you will see the USD has a double bottom formation, a sideways channel, a breakout and retest of the channel followed by a failed breakout of the channel a couple months later.

Then if you look at the S&P you will see a very strong bear rally creating a "shoulder" or the B top of an ABC flag (no chart, sorry). This rally also has double or triple tops is poised to break south.

The simplest reading of both charts is USD up and S&P down. If this happens then the EUR/USD is going down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Capture.JPG
Size: 71 KB

Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.

#10,432
Nov 18, 2011 2:37am Nov 18, 2011 2:37am

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting iqyu5an

Disliked

did u see % of buyer & seller week ago or 3 days ago , compared to current data ?
compare it so we can see what happened

Ignored

You can find historical here --> http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...al-open-orders

.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: HOO..jpg
Size: 176 KB

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#10,433
Nov 18, 2011 2:37am Nov 18, 2011 2:37am

lumesh
Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts

.....continuity....consistency....credibility...

#10,434
Nov 18, 2011 2:38am Nov 18, 2011 2:38am

Tom_D_Trader
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts

Quoting Blobik

Disliked

Don't worry, Tom's "short like a moron" style causes markets to tumble ...

Ignored

Absolutely my friend, 1600 floating

. Hihihii. Booked 180 yesterday and @ 600 this week.

Btw, good point on that margin raise. That was very tricky move from Commodity exchanges resulting in hoax of comming bubble burst.

I dont think silver or gold bubble will burst anytime soon. Not unless trouble in EMU and US are solved. I even dare to say gold and silver may become part of the "currency" basket to denominate commodities which would move them further up. But thats just the sound of the far future.

T.

"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates

#10,435
Nov 18, 2011 2:40am Nov 18, 2011 2:40am

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting lumesh

Disliked

.....continuity....consistency....credibility...

Ignored

Yeah I'm listening to Super Mario also

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#10,436
Nov 18, 2011 2:42am Nov 18, 2011 2:42am

lumesh
Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

Actually this morning the price rallied 75 pips fro Asian open before pulling back a bit. Regardless I was not suggesting the info be used as a contrarion indicator. I was more so displaying the data for others to come up with their own conclusions

Ignored

1) You weren't but Oanda were

2) nail on the head.

#10,437
Nov 18, 2011 2:45am Nov 18, 2011 2:45am

chodd22
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

Quoting AaronWard

Disliked

Man, what a headache. Pegging the USD to the Euro. Why not print more money. That way you get the money without the headache.

I think the deal was cut in September, but it took place in October.
Bears and bulls both.

Buma,

Ironically the Euro plays third fiddle to the USD and the US equity markets when the EUR/USD moves.

If you look at the higher time frame DXZ charts, you will see the USD has a double bottom formation, a sideways channel, a breakout and retest of the channel followed by a failed breakout of the channel a...

Ignored