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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #10,161
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:15am Nov 17, 2011 3:15am
Don't care as long as you can trade it

Quoting lovepips
Wow! Larry is pretty bearish..... his point on on requiring 'an entirely new monetary model' is interesting?? Anyone any ideas on what the new monetary system will be based on?
  • #10,162
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:18am Nov 17, 2011 3:18am
Quoting TheSwede
Just give his 10000+ posts a look. 98% is getting at the muppets 2% is pure gold. Start to look at the posts with attachements and you pick up a lot. He is one of the very best and he helps out if in the right mood.
Yes very true
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,163
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:24am Nov 17, 2011 3:24am
16 Nov 2011
WHY THIS FOREX TRADE loses?
How I trade? Forex Trade Setup Explained.
A) Forex Trading Analysis:
1) Forex Technical Analysis

a) Bearish Trend Continuation
b) Sell on Retracement

2) Forex Fundamental Analysis:

a) N.A

B) Forex Trade Position Management
1) Trade 1

a) Sell Market @1.34766 @4:15:38 PM @16-Nov2011Wed
b) Stopped out @1.3518 @4:41:25 PM -40Pips

C) WHY THIS FOREX TRADE loses?
Reasons:
1) Unexpected news
Euro cuts losses vs dollar on short squeeze
Reuters LONDON | Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:56am EST(4:56pm SST)
Nov 16 (Reuters) - The euro turned positive on the day against the dollar in the European session on Wednesday as investors who had built bearish bets on the common currency were forced to buy it back.
invtraks.com
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  • #10,164
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:25am Nov 17, 2011 3:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
It's not just fundamental Buma. It is "complete" analysis.
The techs are very important as they represent market psychology. However, the main driver is always the fundies. Deep pockets do move markets and sometimes those same deep pockets go stop hunting with or against the fundies. However, any such stop hunting is a grab and run move. In the end, price runs away from uncertainty. Uncertainty is Europe's nickname right now and since Europe is a very tightly integrated part of the global economy (Much like the US), any bad news for Europe,...

As you will know from my posts, I'm a technical intra day trader looking to bank regular pips in the early Europen and US sessions.

However, I do watch the funnymentals and when you look at the daily / weekly TF it is clear that when price moves out of a range / consolidation (here say 700 / 1000 pips) the move is driven by some change in the fundemetals of the countries in the pair involved and will frequently move 2000 / 3000 pips before settling into a new trading range....IMO this is happening now in the Euro and IF my hypothesis is correct, € will a minimum move to the 1.25 area.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,165
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:26am Nov 17, 2011 3:26am
If E/U doesn't retraces but just range under 1.35, would you add more positions? It's really weird there hasn't been any decent retracement at all, I'm afraid if I got on then it retraces I'll be way way under water.

Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning all.

This is the time I usually write where I think the Euro is going today.

I have been expecting a correction but it seems that it has not come yet.
Logic dictates that the longer it takes for the correction to come, the higher the chances of getting one. So where's the logic? huh? That's right. There is no logic here. Logic requires rationality. The markets are far from being rational. So, my only move at this point is to keep being patient. If we don't get a suitable correction, I will stick with my current short positions. If...
  • #10,166
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:30am Nov 17, 2011 3:30am
Quoting TheSwede
Don't care as long as you can trade it
yep... just looking at the 5m candles and the euro looks ready for a nice fall :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #10,167
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:41am Nov 17, 2011 3:41am
Quoting jeff_b
If E/U doesn't retraces but just range under 1.35, would you add more positions? It's really weird there hasn't been any decent retracement at all, I'm afraid if I got on then it retraces I'll be way way under water.
That is why I do not enter right now. In theory, (i mentioned it few times) putting two trades where one is hedging your short might work. But I would not recommend this unless you have strong conviction, that Asset X used for hedging asset Y will do much much better (and eventually you will close both trades in profit, or profit on the first one will be much greater than loss on the second). That is general concept, but it is not a popular method (AFAIK), and it is hard to apply SLs and standard loss-protection methods to it. In fact in ranging conditions it is better to put only TPs as the market have good chances of kicking them all when it goes on a rampage.

But it makes it more unpredictable method. Still an interesting thing to try out in demo.
  • #10,168
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:45am Nov 17, 2011 3:45am
Quoting jeff_b
If E/U doesn't retraces but just range under 1.35, would you add more positions? It's really weird there hasn't been any decent retracement at all, I'm afraid if I got on then it retraces I'll be way way under water.
Then if you want to secure a seat on the southbound train with 100% certainty but do not want to risk a lot. Put in a small position so that if you go underwater a bit, it won't worry you and if it doesn't make a correction it won't piss you off.

ADD: Hmmm. Perhaps I should follow my one advice here.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,169
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:51am Nov 17, 2011 3:51am
I've heard of this and to me it's a waste of equity. If you have strong conviction that asset X will do better, why not trade asset X instead of Y? I only like hedging when you have both long and short open at the same time. For example you go short E/U from 1.4 and still want to get on some retracement now and then so you go long. Of course, it's the same as exit short then go long but this way you pay less on spread and commission.

As I type this, E/U took another 40 pips dive from 1.375 to 1.344, figures.

Quoting Blobik
That is why I do not enter right now. In theory, (i mentioned it few times) putting two trades where one is hedging your short might work. But I would not recommend this unless you have strong conviction, that Asset X used for hedging asset Y will do much much better (and eventually you will close both trades in profit, or profit on the first one will be much greater than loss on the second). That is general concept, but it is not a popular method (AFAIK), and it is hard to apply SLs and standard loss-protection methods to it. In fact in ranging...
  • #10,170
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:54am Nov 17, 2011 3:54am
EZ Crisis related events for the rest of this week...

--Thursday, Nov. 17: Spanish and French bond auctions.

--Friday, Nov. 18: EUR1.3 billion of Greek T-bills mature. IMF/EU officials expected to conclude two-week quarterly evaluation of Portugal's bailout program implementation.

--Sunday, Nov. 20: Spain holds general election.

As such, nobody will be holding risk assets over the weekend.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,171
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:57am Nov 17, 2011 3:57am
Quoting AaronWard
I like a commodity based currency... I am thinking something like cotton or lumber.
.....how about water :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #10,172
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:57am Nov 17, 2011 3:57am
That's what I always do, go in with small position and build it to full lot. I have been waiting for 1.354 since forever to put in a small lot but that never came.

Can you elaborate more on the risk asset part over the weekend? Thanks.

Quoting PipTrapper
Then if you want to secure a seat on the southbound train with 100% certainty but do not want to risk a lot. Put in a small position so that if you go underwater a bit, it won't worry you and if it doesn't make a correction it won't piss you off.

ADD: Hmmm. Perhaps I should follow my one advice here.
  • #10,173
  • Nov 17, 2011 3:57am Nov 17, 2011 3:57am
Quoting jeff_b
I've heard of this and to me it's a waste of equity. If you have strong conviction that asset X will do better, why not trade asset X instead of Y? I only like hedging when you have both long and short open at the same time. For example you go short E/U from 1.4 and still want to get on some retracement now and then so you go long. Of course, it's the same as exit short then go long but this way you pay less on spread and commission.

As I type this, E/U took another 40 pips dive from 1.375 to 1.344, figures.
In general that is what I was speaking of. Still, I cannot resist the "whoa" feeling, that since I first thought about hedging EUR shorts with oil longs (which I resisted myself due to "wasting equity" argument) they decoupled from each other so much... I don't even try to calculate how much my hedging oil longs would made not to drive myself mad at me.

But, previous performance not neccesarily indicates future, and I think above 100$ oil will find it harder and harder to advance.

ADD: Hmm, in fact hedging Eur short with oil long is going long on Oil-Euro.
  • #10,174
  • Nov 17, 2011 4:01am Nov 17, 2011 4:01am
Quoting lovepips
.....how about water :-)
That would certainly make life easier for central banks... they could justify QE every time it rained.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #10,175
  • Nov 17, 2011 4:04am Nov 17, 2011 4:04am
6.975% avg Spanish bond yield at today's auction.

2.82% avg French bond yield at today's auction
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,176
  • Edited 4:32am Nov 17, 2011 4:14am | Edited 4:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
Then if you want to secure a seat on the southbound train with 100% certainty but do not want to risk a lot. Put in a small position so that if you go underwater a bit, it won't worry you and if it doesn't make a correction it won't piss you off.

ADD: Hmmm. Perhaps I should follow my one advice here.
Okay I put my money where my mouth is.
Half position short at 1.3455

ADD: Also moved my E/U sell limit order down to 1.3550 and my E/J sell limit order stays where it is at 104.69
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,177
  • Nov 17, 2011 4:29am Nov 17, 2011 4:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay I put my money where my mouth is.
Half position short at 1.3555
it'd be nice to see it get up there for a short..... just not sure if it'll make it all the way up, I was thinking 3530-40 area
patience is a virtue
  • #10,178
  • Nov 17, 2011 4:32am Nov 17, 2011 4:32am
Quoting lovepips
it'd be nice to see it get up there for a short..... just not sure if it'll make it all the way up, I was thinking 3530-40 area
Oops. Typo. I meant 1.3455
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #10,179
  • Nov 17, 2011 4:49am Nov 17, 2011 4:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
Oops. Typo. I meant 1.3455
Seems you lost any faith in that correction.

Well, Spanish bonds close to 7%, that is indeed tempting to short.

ADD: Okay, I tried tiny short @ 1.3468 too... if it won't go to 1.33 it should go at least closer to 1.34
  • #10,180
  • Nov 17, 2011 4:49am Nov 17, 2011 4:49am
still valid.

got enough of current c wave. waiting for d, then e.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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