- #10,142
- Nov 17, 2011 1:20am Nov 17, 2011 1:20am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jan 2007 | 3,555 Posts
- #10,146
- Nov 17, 2011 1:42am Nov 17, 2011 1:42am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jan 2007 | 3,555 Posts
- #10,147
- Nov 17, 2011 1:46am Nov 17, 2011 1:46am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #10,148
- Nov 17, 2011 2:04am Nov 17, 2011 2:04am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jan 2007 | 3,555 Posts
- #10,149
- Nov 17, 2011 2:10am Nov 17, 2011 2:10am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning all.
This is the time I usually write where I think the Euro is going today.
I have been expecting a correction but it seems that it has not come yet.
Logic dictates that the longer it takes for the correction to come, the higher the chances of getting one. So where's the logic? huh? That's right. There is no logic here. Logic requires rationality. The markets are far from being rational. So, my only move at this point is to keep being patient. If we don't get a suitable correction, I will stick with my current short positions. If we get one, I will add to my shorts. It's that simple. Till then, I wait.
.
This is the time I usually write where I think the Euro is going today.
I have been expecting a correction but it seems that it has not come yet.
Logic dictates that the longer it takes for the correction to come, the higher the chances of getting one. So where's the logic? huh? That's right. There is no logic here. Logic requires rationality. The markets are far from being rational. So, my only move at this point is to keep being patient. If we don't get a suitable correction, I will stick with my current short positions. If we get one, I will add to my shorts. It's that simple. Till then, I wait.
.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #10,150
- Nov 17, 2011 2:17am Nov 17, 2011 2:17am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
- #10,151
- Nov 17, 2011 2:25am Nov 17, 2011 2:25am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #10,152
- Nov 17, 2011 2:30am Nov 17, 2011 2:30am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts
The fundies don't support this projection.
If the Euro goes back up to the 1.39xx level, then Europe will certainly slide into a deeper recession that it is currently headed for.
Sorry I don't buy it. I think a correction would more likely take us to maybe 1.37 at the extreme. but something has to give first.
The sell-off is well under way and short of shockingly good news from Europe, confidence (or the last of it) will keep the market at bay.
All I'm looking for is a rational technical correction to maybe 1.36 or 1.3650 area before the continuation...
carry on, and im not that good with news anyway
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
- #10,153
- Nov 17, 2011 2:41am Nov 17, 2011 2:41am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
this is a very fundamental minded thread, and my opinion would mean quite more or less useless.
carry on, and im not that good with news anyway
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #10,154
- Nov 17, 2011 2:45am Nov 17, 2011 2:45am
PBH,
am believing that the price of oil is going to produce a recession and debt restructuring.
That said, the Euro is trading below the 20 sma and is taking on the characteristics of a down trend on the 8 hour bar.
Dailies appear to be forming stairs going down.
My perception is that a swing low is in the offing around 1.3400, but we could just remain in a sideways consolidation pending further events.
Hard to believe that a quick resoultion is in the near term and the Euro will just magicaly regain its former glory.
Anyways good luck today....
). But I think oil should retest 100$ from the upside... maybe I am wrong, maybe not.
- #10,155
- Nov 17, 2011 2:45am Nov 17, 2011 2:45am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
this is a very fundamental minded thread, and my opinion would mean quite more or less useless.
carry on, and im not that good with news anyway
The techs are very important as they represent market psychology. However, the main driver is always the fundies. Deep pockets do move markets and sometimes those same deep pockets go stop hunting with or against the fundies. However, any such stop hunting is a grab and run move. In the end, price runs away from uncertainty. Uncertainty is Europe's nickname right now and since Europe is a very tightly integrated part of the global economy (Much like the US), any bad news for Europe, is bad news for the world. That is why 1.39 is almost unthinkable at this point.
Besides the European crisis, much in hanging on the outcome of the Supra Committee in the US. November 23rd is the day they are supposed to have this resolved and so far it does not look very good.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #10,156
- Nov 17, 2011 3:01am Nov 17, 2011 3:01am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,576 Posts | Online Now
its going up PT as per my techs.
heres the daily falling wedge, and hers the m5 analysis. stuck in triangles.
we got a crescent waning moon tommorow, and on my custom cycle already made 70+ long on today's upmove.
tommorow can be decisive.
news update
DJ newswires : "ECB Banks borrowed EUR3.083 billion from lending facility.
ECB also parked EUR212.295 bilion in lending facility.
wtf does that mean?
I think your charts look great. However, at the key breakout points, I would use a straddle. That way you get paid if you are right or wrong. Of course... you might lose twice.
I agree that the euro "should" go up. However there are a few kill joys that have the potential to crash the Euro. Your black swan if you like although they are not really black swans. First, the bond auctions and the bond rates. Second, the US equity market. Bond rates up == Euro down. US (and global) equity markets down == Euro down.
Bond rates are once again climbing. Equity markets face a lot of scary things in the next few weeks.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
- #10,158
- Nov 17, 2011 3:07am Nov 17, 2011 3:07am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,576 Posts | Online Now
Wow! Larry is pretty bearish..... his point on on requiring 'an entirely new monetary model' is interesting?? Anyone any ideas on what the new monetary system will be based on?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
- #10,159
- Nov 17, 2011 3:10am Nov 17, 2011 3:10am
Just give his 10000+ posts a look. 98% is getting at the muppets 2% is pure gold. Start to look at the posts with attachements and you pick up a lot. He is one of the very best and he helps out if in the right mood.
... and this is how Cloggie responded...
