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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #9,301
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:14pm Nov 12, 2011 1:14pm
Quoting RodMca
True that mindset.I'm not letting them influence my decisions i just take on board what theyre saying and try figure out their reasoning.. But like PT has been saying stocks are being bought up by institutions to meet end of year predictions to keep their clients happy. So with that in mind and most analysts saying sp500 will close at 1350 risk will pick up and although there may not be much buying of the euro there will be selling of the dollar and investors putting their money into riskier assets. Bearing in mind we saw a close below the 200sma...
Yeap - Just keep Posting your chart on here - and Lets share and Point together
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,302
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:17pm Nov 12, 2011 1:17pm
If i could post my charts I would but unfortunately my broker doesnt allow logins until 5 london time sunday.. But I will share my point and charts tomorrow!
  • #9,303
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:20pm Nov 12, 2011 1:20pm
Quoting RodMca
If i could post my charts I would but unfortunately my broker doesnt allow logins until 5 london time sunday.. But I will share my point and charts tomorrow!
Never Mind - Together and all of us here...Too Try,Love,Care and Understand The Market more
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,304
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:44pm Nov 12, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Who Cares ?

Well I care since I will have the pleasure of meeting the man in person who has written this great article for November 11, 2011.

You can subscribe to his daily email and it is free. I have learned so much over the years reading his analysis.
Thanks kno, I'm already subscribing to most of the websites you post since they provide really good articles and information
  • #9,305
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:51pm Nov 12, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Maybe the trend line is supposed to be like this?

.
(replying to post nr 9271)

Piptrapper,

when i draw trendlines i try to find those so called reference points. What i do is, i find the most recent easy identifiable swing points, connect them and play for a potential channel formation. I know what i just said don't make much sense so i attached a E/U (1H chart) and G/U (4H chart) chart to show what i mean.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 40 KB
  • #9,306
  • Nov 12, 2011 2:21pm Nov 12, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi man, welcome here,

I noticed the same thing with those news.

I think it is because they actually dont have nothing to cry about, since there is nothing happening . But that is actually the main problem. They are making new parliament in Greece and in Italy as well.

Since markets are partially driven by market expectations (which are partially driven by headlines) they dont see problems at Europe now. It seems to me headlines actually focus at US, which aint healthy either.

But to me, it doesnt change the underlying fundamentals,...
Thank you for the welcome Tom. I am sure you are right about media focus diverting from Europe to US. There is little new news while Europe reforms their lines so lets pick on the US in the meantime. I'm sure market strategists are working hard to push things their way.

Technically EW theory could see a "c" wave down on the daily. Or the beginning of a A-B-C wave going up on the H4. Friday's market close did break the short downtrend and you have to admit there was a lot of successful bullish pressure to recover from the Italian bond interest rate inspired sell-off to 1.3482. What surprised me the most about last weeks PA was the ability of the CBs to intervene so quickly and stop a further sell-off.

Overall I don't have mathematical equations and my crystal ball is a little foggy but I see market momentum still bullish and I think it will continue into the upper supply zones until someone actually fails (Greece/Italy/?).

That said, someone will fail soon and then we'll be ready.
  • #9,307
  • Nov 12, 2011 4:32pm Nov 12, 2011 4:32pm
Quoting Pbh
Thanks kno, I'm already subscribing to most of the websites you post since they provide really good articles and information
http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...omic-view.html

Snippet:

Keynesian and monetarists believed that the problems surfacing in the PIIGS would be resolved by economic growth, which would follow so long as governments maintained their deficit spending. As events are now proving, this analysis was flawed, which is why Keynesians are now confused. They should open their minds and absorb Austrian economic theory to gain a proper understanding of human actions and how people are affected by money and credit.
  • #9,308
  • Nov 12, 2011 4:59pm Nov 12, 2011 4:59pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/wo...lines&emc=tha2

From Ed Steer's Article and link to above...

Greece named Lucas Papademos, a former vice president of the European Central Bank, interim prime minister of a unity government charged with preventing the country from default. In Italy, momentum was building behind Mario Monti, a former European commissioner, to replace the once-invincible Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi as early as Monday.
I mentioned in this column earlier this week that Papademos was a member of the Trilateral Commission. Well, it's even worse for Monti. Wikipedia states the following about him..."Monti is the first chairman of Bruegel, a European think tank founded in 2005, and he is European Chairman of the Trilateral Commission, a think tank founded in 1973 by David Rockefeller. He is also a leading member of the Bildergerg Group. Monti is an international adviser to Goldman Sachs and The Coca-Cola Company."
It sounds like democracy has died in both Greece...and heading that way in Italy. One wonders which European nation will be consumed by the dark side of The Force, next.
  • #9,309
  • Nov 12, 2011 6:09pm Nov 12, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I am keeping my focus on the rising trend line and not the falling one. See the white circle on charts.
It has not managed to penetrate the rising trend line and has also been rejected twice on H4.
Also on H1 you can see the same rejection over multiple candles and it is fading.
For now I am not worried but I will keep my eye on it when the markets open.

.
Is H4 forming a falling wedge pattern? If yes, then it will be bullish, right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,310
  • Nov 12, 2011 7:14pm Nov 12, 2011 7:14pm
Quoting PipKiller
It killed it in demo friday. Going live this week.
Good luck with it
  • #9,311
  • Nov 12, 2011 7:21pm Nov 12, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting Pbh
Good luck with it
Thank you. Worst I can do is lose a little bit of money. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #9,312
  • Nov 12, 2011 7:48pm Nov 12, 2011 7:48pm
Quoting PipKiller
Sneak peak at a 1 minute scalping strategy I'm working on. It killed it in demo friday. Going live this week. I'll put my money where my mouth is before I put more out but to a select few experienced traders.
This I would like to see as at times I will just sit and stare at a 1min chart and well it boggles the mind that people can trade off of this time frame, interesting...
Never been vouched
  • #9,313
  • Nov 12, 2011 11:45pm Nov 12, 2011 11:45pm
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/up.../mwo111111.pdf

There is excellent fundamental analysis here and I suggest we all read it. For those that trade using technicals or price action the reason that you should take the time to read it is that you will understand what lays ahead and be less influenced by fairy tales.

Little Red Riding Hood was about The Three Bear's and the Bear's are hanging around the euro.

The next week should be interesting heading to the deadline in the USA on November 23, 2011 with the final deadline December 23, 2011.

I am off to bed soon. Good Suinday.
  • #9,314
  • Nov 13, 2011 12:08am Nov 13, 2011 12:08am
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0111112153248/

Snippet:

The Week Ahead
News from Italy will be the main focus on Monday, regarding resignation of Berlusconi and naming of new Prime Minister. Also, markets will look into GDP reports from Eurozone countries. A number of important data will be released from US, including CPI, job and retail sales and more importantly, BoE will release it's quarterly inflation report. From US a bunch of growth and inflation data will also be released.

  1. Monday: New Zealand retail sales; Japan GDP; Swiss PPI; Eurozone industrial production
  2. Tuesday: RBA Minutes; French, Germany, Italy, Eurozone GDP, ZEW; UK CPI US retail sales, PPI, Empire State Manufacturing
  3. Wednesday: BoJ rate decision; UK job data, BoE inflation report; Eurozone CPI; US CPI, TIC capital flow, industrial production
  4. Thursday: New Zealand PPI; UK retail sales; Swiss ZEW; US new residential construction, Philly Fed survey
  5. Friday: Canada CPI leading indicator; US leading indicator

  • #9,315
  • Nov 13, 2011 12:25am Nov 13, 2011 12:25am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/up.../mwo111111.pdf

There is excellent fundamental analysis here and I suggest we all read it. For those that trade using technicals or price action the reason that you should take the time to read it is that you will understand what lays ahead and be less influenced by fairy tales.

Little Red Riding Hood was about The Three Bear's and the Bear's are hanging around the euro.

The next week should be interesting heading to the deadline in the USA on November 23, 2011 with the final deadline...
Thanks Kno, that's some very focused and sobering reading.

Very critical news releases this week, too. I think a short or two may prove prudent at this juncture.
  • #9,316
  • Nov 13, 2011 12:36am Nov 13, 2011 12:36am
Quoting knoholygrail
It sounds like democracy has died in both Greece...and heading that way in Italy. One wonders which European nation will be consumed by the dark side of The Force, next.
The time has come. Annikin Skywalker will soon rule Europe and perhaps the world....

.http://geekcentricity.com/wp-content...vader-face.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,317
  • Nov 13, 2011 1:23am Nov 13, 2011 1:23am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/up.../mwo111111.pdf

There is excellent fundamental analysis here and I suggest we all read it. For those that trade using technicals or price action the reason that you should take the time to read it is that you will understand what lays ahead and be less influenced by fairy tales.

Little Red Riding Hood was about The Three Bear's and the Bear's are hanging around the euro.

The next week should be interesting heading to the deadline in the USA on November 23, 2011 with the final deadline...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,318
  • Nov 13, 2011 1:28am Nov 13, 2011 1:28am
Quoting lumesh
(replying to post nr 9271)

Piptrapper,

when i draw trendlines i try to find those so called reference points. What i do is, i find the most recent easy identifiable swing points, connect them and play for a potential channel formation. I know what i just said don't make much sense so i attached a E/U (1H chart) and G/U (4H chart) chart to show what i mean.
Lumesh, I also do that, but I am looking at the bigger picture and trying to incorporate more than one swing cycle in my trend analysis.

I guess Monday will tell the story. At this point one can only speculate. However, as far as what I am seeing right now, it still points down, even if we get a final push up into the supply zone first.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,319
  • Nov 13, 2011 1:50am Nov 13, 2011 1:50am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/up.../mwo111111.pdf

There is excellent fundamental analysis here and I suggest we all read it. For those that trade using technicals or price action the reason that you should take the time to read it is that you will understand what lays ahead and be less influenced by fairy tales.

Little Red Riding Hood was about The Three Bear's and the Bear's are hanging around the euro.

The next week should be interesting heading to the deadline in the USA on November 23, 2011 with the final deadline...
Kno,

This is an outstanding article. Many thanks. PT might even consider placing a link on the front page because this guy, very completely and thoroughly, nails it.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,320
  • Nov 13, 2011 2:17am Nov 13, 2011 2:17am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/up.../mwo111111.pdf

There is excellent fundamental analysis here and I suggest we all read it..
good report indeed, but unfortunatelly biased. i would like to see a more objective one which explores alternative scenarios.

also, no disclaimer that the author does not hold a short position in euro or correlated assets... food for thought
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