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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #9,281
  • Nov 12, 2011 5:06am Nov 12, 2011 5:06am
Quoting dsugums
I hope I am a physhic, lol. Its all based on numbers/mathematics. Fibonacci is based on numbers also
That's great. Can you explain it on this thread? Or have you explained it somewhere else already and can provide us with a link?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,282
  • Nov 12, 2011 5:23am Nov 12, 2011 5:23am
Quoting knoholygrail
Who Cares ?

Well I care since I will have the pleasure of meeting the man in person who has written this great article for November 11, 2011.

You can subscribe to his daily email and it is free. I have learned so much over the years reading his analysis.

Here is the PDF file for Friday, November 11, 2011.

http://www.discoveryinvesting.com/up...er_11_2011.pdf


Everyone here enjoy your weekend and keep in mind November 23, 2011 will put more focus on the USA again.
Thanks Kno. Great article

I still think it's a bubble unless you have physical possession of the bullion

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,283
  • Nov 12, 2011 5:25am Nov 12, 2011 5:25am
Quoting AaronWard
Not so hard... for a forex addict. About the first question we ask ourselves every morning is "Are the highs lower highs or higher highs?". And that question is yet another way a forex addict is similar to a drug addict.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,284
  • Nov 12, 2011 5:35am Nov 12, 2011 5:35am
Quoting dsugums
I hope I am a physhic, lol. Its all based on numbers/mathematics. Fibonacci is based on numbers also
Interesting - I am sure you dont mind to show us how the calculation ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,285
  • Nov 12, 2011 6:46am Nov 12, 2011 6:46am
I was thinking a lot of the current situation. Yesterday was a bank holiday but I'm not sure that yesterday's recovery was lead only by retail traders and the big boys were completely away. Although I know it is fundamentally bearish, technically bearish (questionable because my indicators show a broken downtrend), looking at the power of yesterday's recovery (U shape) and adding my subjectivity to it, I think it is bullish for the short term. Everybody says the EUR will collapse, too obvious. It is an assumption from what the big boys can make the profit driving the market to the opposite direction. Am I wrong? I hope there will be a retrace where I can get out of my "bad" trade with a small profit..
  • #9,286
  • Nov 12, 2011 8:01am Nov 12, 2011 8:01am
Quoting sailmailman
I going to jump in ....
Hi man, welcome here,

I noticed the same thing with those news.

I think it is because they actually dont have nothing to cry about, since there is nothing happening . But that is actually the main problem. They are making new parliament in Greece and in Italy as well.

Since markets are partially driven by market expectations (which are partially driven by headlines) they dont see problems at Europe now. It seems to me headlines actually focus at US, which aint healthy either.

But to me, it doesnt change the underlying fundamentals, which is very bad in Europe. Maybe people just dont see it now and are looking away hoping it will be all ok. It will not.

Well, that was from psychological point of view. Technical will come tomorrow and my technicals point heavily down to 1,25 area @ end of the year.

Anyway, I dont expect retest of 384 area. I assume there will be sellof at monday, since fridays correction was possible only because US markets were closed.

Again, welcome here,

Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #9,287
  • Nov 12, 2011 8:54am Nov 12, 2011 8:54am
It may look something like this, seriously I would like to see such a calculation.

f(x,y) = sin(x)cos(y), g(x,y) = sin(y)cos(x)

Quoting FXMindset
Interesting - I am sure you dont mind to show us how the calculation ?
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #9,288
  • Nov 12, 2011 9:18am Nov 12, 2011 9:18am
Quoting fxrising
It may look something like this, seriously I would like to see such a calculation.

f(x,y) = sin(x)cos(y), g(x,y) = sin(y)cos(x)
Seriouslly - Give me the example - Cant Understand

Btw - PT - I'm Just added you
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,289
  • Nov 12, 2011 9:24am Nov 12, 2011 9:24am
EUR/USD Recovers From One Month Low – Range bound Price Action On Higher Timeframe

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced the biggest daily timeframe rally in the last couple of weeks, moving higher from a one-month low versus the U.S. dollar on Friday, and pulled back most of the weeks earlier losses. The 375 pip weekly range, which is closely aligned with the 26 week average of 385 pips, does not tell the full story as the pair actually moved over 300 pips lower from the open, hitting the 1.3500 psych level combined with Fib confluence, and subsequently closed the week near the open after Fridays rally. The EUR/USD pair may want to test the key 1.4000 level once again before deciding on longer term direction. This could potentially see a squeeze on weaker shorts as the new week begins.

Dollar Index Update 12th November

Price is once again close to the 76.70 support level which has held on numerous attempts to move lower. A solid close below this level would encourage USDX bears but another rejection could see dollar index bulls re-focus on the 10/11/11 78.16 swing high area.
Consolidation between the 76.70 > 77.50 pivot levels is a common scenario at present and may continue into next week if the recent range bound action resumes. The 77.50 resistance was actually taken out as yields on the Italian 10-year bonds spiked to euro-era highs, above 7%, last week but subsequent political developments have seen a move back into the range as the EUR/USD and other majors retraced earlier moves.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,290
  • Nov 12, 2011 9:26am Nov 12, 2011 9:26am
Quoting fxrising
It may look something like this, seriously I would like to see such a calculation.

f(x,y) = sin(x)cos(y), g(x,y) = sin(y)cos(x)
No I thank it is: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...2b6ae5dab2.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,291
  • Nov 12, 2011 9:34am Nov 12, 2011 9:34am
Italy vote clears way for Berlusconi resignation

Italy's parliament gave final approval to a financial stability law on Saturday, paving the way for Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to resign and make way for an emergency government headed by former European Commissioner Mario Monti. Once he resigns, it is said that he will be hosting a Bunga Bunga party and has invited his friend Mr. Pip Trapper as guest of honor.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,292
  • Nov 12, 2011 9:40am Nov 12, 2011 9:40am
Quoting w1nner
I was thinking a lot of the current situation. Yesterday was a bank holiday but I'm not sure that yesterday's recovery was lead only by retail traders and the big boys were completely away. Although I know it is fundamentally bearish, technically bearish (questionable because my indicators show a broken downtrend), looking at the power of yesterday's recovery (U shape) and adding my subjectivity to it, I think it is bullish for the short term. Everybody says the EUR will collapse, too obvious. It is an assumption from what the big boys can make...
Well, on EURUSD I will be looking to move my trade higher if we don't get proper selloff. I mean, trying to put SL at BE asap, and then bringing sell limits higher. Unless she drops like a stone, so I have assumptions confirmed. If she gaps up, I will put small short position, if she gaps down below my underwater shorts (and won't show mad selloff signs) I will close/ scale out position, and try to reenter higher. In other words, if there will be a possibility for a clean exit and reentry higher I will try to use it. If we somehow shoot up abowe daily trend line and close there... ouch, will get forced to kill the trade with loss. But after the jump up we didn't even retrace to nearest fibo level, so I think we should try to get lower. The only problem is that during Asian session USD does not rally up too often. Unless Noda-Yoda-Azumi magic takes place, but that would surprise me. A lot.
  • #9,293
  • Nov 12, 2011 9:41am Nov 12, 2011 9:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
Italy vote clears way for Berlusconi resignation

Italy's parliament gave final approval to a financial stability law on Saturday, paving the way for Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to resign and make way for an emergency government headed by former European Commissioner Mario Monti. Once he resigns, it is said that he will be hosting a Bunga Bunga party and has invited his friend Mr. Pip Trapper as guest of honor.
Does your wife know about it?
  • #9,294
  • Nov 12, 2011 9:45am Nov 12, 2011 9:45am
Quoting Blobik
Well, on EURUSD I will be looking to move my trade higher if we don't get proper selloff. I mean, trying to put SL at BE asap, and then bringing sell limits higher. Unless she drops like a stone, so I have assumptions confirmed. If she gaps up, I will put small short position, if she gaps down below my underwater shorts (and won't show mad selloff signs) I will close/ scale out position, and try to reenter higher. In other words, if there will be a possibility for a clean exit and reentry higher I will try to use it. If we somehow shoot up abowe...
Hmm, for the force, it's too early
Not now, but come it will
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,295
  • Nov 12, 2011 9:46am Nov 12, 2011 9:46am
Quoting Blobik
Does your wife know about it?
Of course. I don't do anything without her.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,296
  • Nov 12, 2011 10:14am Nov 12, 2011 10:14am
I'm really thinking 1.3950ish is a real possibility early next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.3950.jpg Size: 127 KB
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #9,297
  • Nov 12, 2011 10:26am Nov 12, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Pipsforall
I'm really thinking 1.3950ish is a real possibility early next week.
As long you trade based on your chart - your analysis - your effort - Just go for it
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,298
  • Nov 12, 2011 10:29am Nov 12, 2011 10:29am
Pipsforall, I'm thinking the same I opened two shorts on friday at 1.3750 and 1.3765 will gladly take small profit on both of them! I'm thinking the neckline(1.3580) won't be tested for another while I'd gladly close out shorts at 1.37 if we break that and hold great but I dont see any lower than 1.3650.. Especially with Goldman coming out and saying buy the euro until 1.40 and Morgan Stanley saying sell but close out if we see 1.3950. I'll hold my nerve with the two shorts but I dont think we'll see the 1.3380 level any time soon! I'm sure we'd all love to see it!
  • #9,299
  • Nov 12, 2011 10:32am Nov 12, 2011 10:32am
Quoting RodMca
Pipsforall, I'm thinking the same I opened two shorts on friday at 1.3750 and 1.3765 will gladly take small profit on both of them! I'm thinking the neckline(1.3580) won't be tested for another while I'd gladly close out shorts at 1.37 if we break that and hold great but I dont see any lower than 1.3650.. Especially with Goldman coming out and saying buy the euro until 1.40 and Morgan Stanley saying sell but close out if we see 1.3950. I'll hold my nerve with the two shorts but I dont think we'll see the 1.3380 level any time soon! I'm sure we'd...
Dont need care what Big Company Doing - But Care what your Chart Saying
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #9,300
  • Nov 12, 2011 11:07am Nov 12, 2011 11:07am
True that mindset.I'm not letting them influence my decisions i just take on board what theyre saying and try figure out their reasoning.. But like PT has been saying stocks are being bought up by institutions to meet end of year predictions to keep their clients happy. So with that in mind and most analysts saying sp500 will close at 1350 risk will pick up and although there may not be much buying of the euro there will be selling of the dollar and investors putting their money into riskier assets. Bearing in mind we saw a close below the 200sma on sp500 on friday I do feel we will see some bearish activity early next week but not to the same extent as we saw last week.. I remain bearish for the very short term but if my system tells me to buy I certainly will and vice versa..
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