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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #9,241
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:21pm Nov 11, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting Pipsforall
The Euro/usd will definitely see those prices again, probably next week, I do think we're going up early next week, I think the US markets will rally on the Italian and Greek news and that will cause a Euro rise, then I think when we hit some major supply areas it will get sold down. Ultimately, I think the Euro is going to 1.30 and 1.20, but because the Euro still is higher yielding than the worthless USD, its a real fight between the Eurozone's continuing deteriorating fundamentals v. the fact the interest rate is 1.25 and there has been no money...
Great response...seriously though, who is buying this? Those folks must have a gun to their heads. Makes no sense.
  • #9,242
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:30pm Nov 11, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting chodd22
Great response...seriously though, who is buying this? Those folks must have a gun to their heads. Makes no sense.
There is someone who has on their signature on this forum, "The markets can stay irrational, a lot longer than you can stay solvent." It couldn't be more true, I was long the euro until 3 AM last night, I got out of my longs at 1.3650 because I didn't want to be in the market for today's circus, of course, kicking myself in the ass now for it, I left a lot of pips on the table after painfully holding for a couple of days, but there is always another train leaving the station, that said, while I love to pay attention to the fundamentals, I trade based on the technicals, so when I get to an area of support I buy and when I get to areas of resistance I sell, I sell it up and down no matter what the fundamentals and most of the time it works, sure, can't win every trade, but if you're patient, and wait for price to come to you, most of the time you can, and its also great to have a headline in your favor when your buying or selling as well. lol
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #9,243
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:38pm Nov 11, 2011 4:38pm
Quoting chodd22
Great response...seriously though, who is buying this? Those folks must have a gun to their heads. Makes no sense.
Nobody is buying the Euro
There is an inverse correlation between the USD and the equity markets.
This pair rises in a risk-on environment only because the USD loses as traders and investors swap it for higher yielding foreign risk assets... not the Euro.
That correlation has been slowly diverging and eventually it will break. Equity indices will still rally into the year end but you will see the Euro slide as the correlation starts to break down. Another quarter point off the ECB rate will accelerate that breakdown, as will further realization that Europe is heading into a mild recession and the US is heading into a 3% growth period for 2012. As soon as the US QE3 fear subsides after a few more good econ indicators, you will see more capital flowing to US assets. Obviously not fixed income such as bonds, but riskier assets such as equities. This will break the correlation between the Euro and equity markets just like it did in late 2009 / Early 2010 when the Euro hit a low of 1.1875 and the Dow kept rallying.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,244
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:42pm Nov 11, 2011 4:42pm
Well, I'm done for today.
Good night and happy weekend everybody.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,245
  • Nov 11, 2011 4:54pm Nov 11, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I added something to the post with the charts. Take a look --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post5126722

I read your post more than once. Thanks for your detailed answer and analysis. I attached my 4H chart, the blue line is the 40 SMA, the yellow line is the 1200 SMA which is equivalent to the 40 SMA on the weekly chart (the top of the daily candle shadows just touches that moving average if you see the weekly chart - I think this is the reason of the consolidation here).

My assumption was that the sideways phase is over and the market will continue falling. I assumed that the 40 SMA on H4 is the polarity and will send back the price immediately if touched (or goes above a bit). I am also checking the 5-15-30-60M charts when the price is near the trigger and I would cancel this trade if I see the situation today. I was not in the computer at the moment of the order - big mistake.

I understand your point of view but some things make me nervous. I don't think it is a downtrend, rather it is a sideways phase (up and down, up and down). The U shape of the last 3 days, and the power of the recovery today's PA means for me that it was able to recover from that low, it has power to resume the uptrend. 2.) If you see 40 SMA on the daily chart, it is rising. Other reason for the uptrend resume on the daily. 3.) If I see the 1H chart, it is so steppy trend that I become dizzy.

I will sleep bad over the weekend but I agree with the stop is above 1.6170 (with 20-30 pip, that is safe), unfortunately I cannot do anything better now. But the question is to put the t/p at zero or to wait for some profit if it turns back.
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  • #9,246
  • Nov 11, 2011 5:10pm Nov 11, 2011 5:10pm
Quoting w1nner
I don't think it is a downtrend, rather it is a sideways phase (up and down, up and down) ...

the question is to put the t/p at zero or to wait for some profit if it turns back.
I see a downtrend because the higher time frames are more important to see the big picture. Smaller time frames will always show up down movement because your screen is not big enough to see the whole picture. Look at the daily chart again (The one I posted) and you will see what I mean.

As for whether to take profit at zero or let it go positive, that depends on you and your comfort level. If it was me, I would take another short position from the current price on Monday and average it all out so I can take a total profit before the price reaches the original entry. But that's me. What you do has to come from you.

Don't lose sleep over this. You are hardly underwater. It is only about 60 pips. With proper money management, based on the usual volatility of the GBP pair, 60 pips should be no more than 0.3% of your account capital per position. This way you can take a second position to rescue a bad one without over leveraging yourself or add a second position to maximize profit while on a good run and/or to take and lock partial profit when you reach a target but believe it may go further. If you are not familiar with the terms scale-in and scale-out, I suggest you Google them.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,247
  • Nov 11, 2011 5:23pm Nov 11, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
ADD: I have added the daily chart to show you something. I drew a fibo tool from the August high to the October low. Since the end of October, it has been drawing a possible 5 wave bull flag in a falling channel just below the 61.8% line. I doubt it is a bull flag but for argument's sake, let's say it is. Today's move up would be wave # 4. Therefore Monday would be a move down to complete wave 5.
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Another important thing to note about flags, which we experienced before, is that wave 5 is not necessarily going to the trendline. Sometimes it is unable to chew through previous S/R level (the one that finished wave 3).

And, about bullishness in GBPUSD... As it goes similar to EURUSD, some analysts point that GBP declined more against USD than other currencies in past, therefore it might be a bit undervalued. Some even claim it to go up and EURUSD down simultaneously. Not that I believe that strongly, neither recommend to rely too much on analyst blah-blah, but I thought this might be interesting for somebody. As I don't trade GBP, I have no idea if this babbling is worth anything, so you need to make research yourself.

If you want to know, MigBank analysts are ones that claim GBP strenght - as they repeat it over and over again, you can check their arguments and decide if they are convincing for you in longer term.

But, again, I personally claim the fall of the EUR. I don't make any predictions for GBP. And even if I made, I remind that I am a noob that lost half his account already, so I am not reliable.
  • #9,248
  • Nov 11, 2011 5:31pm Nov 11, 2011 5:31pm
Closing price per forex.com is 1.37451
  • #9,249
  • Nov 11, 2011 5:35pm Nov 11, 2011 5:35pm
Quoting Blobik
Another important thing to note about flags, which we experienced before, is that wave 5 is not necessarily going to the trendline. Sometimes it is unable to chew through previous S/R level (the one that finished wave 3).

And, about bullishness in GBPUSD... As it goes similar to EURUSD, some analysts point that GBP declined more against USD than other currencies in past, therefore it might be a bit undervalued. Some even claim it to go up and EURUSD down simultaneously. Not that I believe that strongly, neither recommend to rely too much on...

Here is a different view based on a lot more than what MigBank considers significant. Like all analysis, it is subjective but nobody knows with 100% certainty what will happen. The only certainty in life is uncertainty itself.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...er_Growth.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,250
  • Nov 11, 2011 5:38pm Nov 11, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting nyfx718
Closing price per forex.com is 1.37451
excellent
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,251
  • Nov 11, 2011 6:13pm Nov 11, 2011 6:13pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Here is a different view based on a lot more than what MigBank considers significant. Like all analysis, it is subjective but nobody knows with 100% certainty what will happen. The only certainty in life is uncertainty itself.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...er_Growth.html
Well, I was just providing other point of the view. And now hope to provide some entertainment:

http://i1.kwejk.pl/site_media/obrazk...gif?1320859096
  • #9,252
  • Nov 11, 2011 7:12pm Nov 11, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting dsugums
I see EU back to 3830 by Friday close

I will be the first one to mention this and it is copy righted

Almost there (if not for the bank holidays). We will see this level by US open on Monday. After that we can start looking at 1.3580 by next Friday (or sooner)

Never under estimate the PA
  • #9,253
  • Nov 11, 2011 7:49pm Nov 11, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If we do get it, I'll be the first to slap a big short for over the weekend.

I personally do not see it. Too many technical and political obstacles in the way. Of course that could change but unless you know something the rest of the world doesn't, I say the current indicators prove you wrong.

Some rationale behind your call (according to the rules of this thread... see page 1) would be appreciated.
Probably you need to load up soon
  • #9,254
  • Nov 11, 2011 7:59pm Nov 11, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting Pipsforall
There is someone who has on their signature on this forum, "The markets can stay irrational, a lot longer than you can stay solvent." It couldn't be more true, I was long the euro until 3 AM last night, I got out of my longs at 1.3650 because I didn't want to be in the market for today's circus, of course, kicking myself in the ass now for it, I left a lot of pips on the table after painfully holding for a couple of days, but there is always another train leaving the station, that said, while I love to pay attention to the fundamentals, I trade...
Before the trading day startedyour charts showed what it showed.

Nothing new there. Did you know the Dow would go up 260 today ?

No one did however as it did it brought up EUR/USD.

My point with respect and wanting you to win is that you must factor in other things to get that winning edge.

Have a good weekend.
  • #9,255
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:06pm Nov 11, 2011 11:06pm
December 23, 2013 which is the 100 Year Anniversary of The Federal Reserve...

http://p4tre.emv3.com/HM?a=ENX7Cqm6D...Vsje_HhdBNhlFa

Wake Up America ... Go Ron Paul
  • #9,256
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:11pm Nov 11, 2011 11:11pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Wake Up America ... Go Ron Paul
Inserted Video


, I think I will never get tired of this video.
  • #9,257
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:56pm Nov 11, 2011 11:56pm
one week .. not to log in in FF threads :
1800 $ from 1009 $
about 80% profit ...
u need just to be with ur self...
nice week end for all
  • #9,258
  • Edited 1:25am Nov 12, 2011 12:46am | Edited 1:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
It is only about 60 pips. With proper money management, based on the usual volatility of the GBP pair, 60 pips should be no more than 0.3% of your account capital per position.
PT--

This is a new idea for me... to base your level risk on the volatility of the pair instead of the pair instead of some artificial 3:1 RR. Many thanks.

I have always hated the idea of 3:1 RR with a tight stoploss. I know that random entries will be at least 3x more likely to hit your stoploss so it probably leaves you at just a little worse than break even. And then you pay the commission or spread. So mathematically the odds are exactly same as playing the roulette table.

BTW I am going to have to respectfully disagree with this Nobody is buying the Euro. Over the last two days the Euro has risen against all the currency pair on my MT4.

I see you have changed your tagline.

Blobik -- your video was absolutely hysterical. Many thanks.

Kno -- I used to think that while Ron Paul had a few dubious ideas on the economy, he was a good and intelligent politician. But then I got hit on the head a few times by Ron Paul supporters (not you, you are very gentlemanly in your support, many kudos to you). So I actually read what he has to say and then pulled up the constitution to double check what he claims. What an eye opener. The guy totally butchers the constitution and with that single act he loses, in my mind, right to the adjectives of good and intelligent. Misrepresenting the constitution is an unforgivable act on the part of any American politician.

Kno & Phd -- that video is amazing. Definitely a best of breed. Thanks for sharing and resharing it. And I watched it more than once.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #9,259
  • Nov 12, 2011 1:56am Nov 12, 2011 1:56am
Quoting AaronWard
BTW I am going to have to respectfully disagree with this Nobody is buying the Euro. Over the last two days the Euro has risen against all the currency pair on my MT4.
You are correct. The Euro has risen against all pairs. When I said "nobody is buying the Euro", it was not meant literally. Of course somebody is buying the Euro, however, most of the Euro gains vs other currencies are related to unwinding of previously held short positions rather than a buying interest in the single currency. It is more like a reduction of selling interest. The rest of the gains are related to losses in the USD.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #9,260
  • Nov 12, 2011 2:44am Nov 12, 2011 2:44am
the tendency : people love cheap and cheapest item.... whatever it is ( car , food, clothes .... and stock / currency ) ..... so once they think it's cheap........ they buy it "wants,need and demand law".

make it simple



Quoting PipTrapper
You are correct. The Euro has risen against all pairs. When I said "nobody is buying the Euro", it was not meant literally. Of course somebody is buying the Euro, however, most of the Euro gains vs other currencies are related to unwinding of previously held short positions rather than a buying interest in the single currency. It is more like a reduction of selling interest. The rest of the gains are related to losses in the USD.
not euphoria follower
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