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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #8,301
  • Nov 8, 2011 3:19pm Nov 8, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting foto
lovepips the problem in Europe remains the disconnect between the work and save ethic of Northern Europe and the cultures of the peripheral countries.
To date no one is going to convince the Germans to work until they are 70 yrs. of age so as to transfer tax dollars to support the social systems of others.
That is the great flaw in the structure of the Euro.
For sure, that is a flaw, but I'm not sure if it is the 'GREAT flaw'...

I believe the main difference between the germans and the greeks, comes down to management and government. The greeks could be managed and governed better...

The average Greek is not lazy and unwilling to work. Their issue is that successive governments have failed to tackle the 'black market'. The average greek, does want to be part of the euro and they do want reform. It's the same thing in Italy. The average Italian hates Berlo and wants him out, but they feel powerless.

One other thing that's worth mentioning about Greece. The greeks are the largest importers of arms in Europe. They have compulsory military for all males over 18 and one of the largest infantries. They are not a country of layabouts.

Finally with regard to social systems, the Germans have a great social system and so do the French.
patience is a virtue
  • #8,302
  • Nov 8, 2011 3:21pm Nov 8, 2011 3:21pm
Short on 1.3839.. hoping the resistance hold. But if it doesn't I have another order on 1.39.
  • #8,303
  • Nov 8, 2011 3:34pm Nov 8, 2011 3:34pm
Lovepips, I don't think the Greeks are lazy, (I am 50% Greek) but the peripheral countries have different cultural values then Northern Europeans.
In the North winter comes and with that they must live on savings until spring. That is the heritage of the North, since the beginning of human occupation that is what has come down through the generations.
The Peripheral contries have a gentler climate and are more agrarian so they value time differently. The social structures are different then Northern Europe.
The financial union that was to be the Euro has not overcome this. Greeks are not going to become Germans or vis versa Nor are Italians going to become Irish.

This is a continental dislocate that the Bears do not believe can be overcome.

edit: as to the black market. When people who work believe that their government is oppressive and scheming then Black markets will arise.
  • #8,304
  • Edited 4:44pm Nov 8, 2011 4:18pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting sisse
In simple words, this week move hasn't even started, obviously in TA because we haven't test R (1.388x) yet and we are trading air in my books....if they are going to sell, like always only "dumb" money will sell at the lows....we'll see
agree 100%.. i think unless something really big comes out FA-wise, we have at least one bounce left in this almost perfect hourly channel before the inevitable breakout.. if asia or frankie pops there with a spike (3920..it's just 90 pips from current price), without some 'revolutionary' headline beneath, it could be a nice fade.. but if we go down first i'll buy the reject of green channel LTL (could play with a spike retest of broken red channel) with a hope for a break up to the 4000s. don't tell something like that will happen but it does sometimes .-)

this is h1 (i don't like h4 because of diff closes w/diff borkers).
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  • #8,305
  • Nov 8, 2011 4:35pm Nov 8, 2011 4:35pm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wan...dist=afterbell
  • #8,306
  • Nov 8, 2011 4:43pm Nov 8, 2011 4:43pm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pri...W_story_insert
  • #8,307
  • Nov 8, 2011 4:51pm Nov 8, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting foto
Lovepips, I don't think the Greeks are lazy, (I am 50% Greek) but the peripheral countries have different cultural values then Northern Europeans.
In the North winter comes and with that they must live on savings until spring. That is the heritage of the North, since the beginning of human occupation that is what has come down through the generations.
The Peripheral contries have a gentler climate and are more agrarian so they value time differently. The social structures are different then Northern Europe.
The financial union that was to be...
foto, I agree with everything you've said, however I believe that no matter where in the world anyone is from, if they have a willingness to work, then a successful economic union can be formed. Differing social environments should be used as a way to take the best aspects from each and try to apply it to all (within reason of course). e.g. use nordic diligence and process to eliminate the black market in greece.

The euro has not been going that long and the problems of integration were always going to be a challenge.... I hope over time that the bears are proved wrong as a successful euro area will be beneficial for all.

in the meantime, I'm just planning on taking more pips and I went short again after my SL was hit with a +1 profit :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #8,308
  • Nov 8, 2011 4:58pm Nov 8, 2011 4:58pm
I think she will go up in the asian, or at least should not decline. Unless some super-duper news come out. Like, Germany reveals officialy that EFSF is empty. Oh, and the box itself was borrowed and they want us to give it back.
1) It is Asian, USD usually does not get stronger then. Sometimes, but usually not.
2) When I look ad Rod's MA's they act very funny - 10SMA and 5SMA on lower TFs almost exactly the same. So even though we are bouncing of the resistance, it is not a normal bounce. Too flat.
3) This resistance was pierced over and over in few days. It has to give up eventually...
4) Bunga Bunga Rally
5) Many, many bears await at least 1.39-1.395. We may not reach 1.39 (cause as many await so much, many may jump before not to miss the train), but above 1.388 should finally get tested.
6) My magic capabilities, I am going to sleep so she will go up asap and head back down so I won't get my short opportunity
  • #8,309
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:06pm Nov 8, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting Blobik
I think she will go up in the asian, or at least should not decline. Unless some super-duper news come out. Like, Germany reveals officialy that EFSF is empty. Oh, and the box itself was borrowed and they want us to give it back.
1) It is Asian, USD usually does not get stronger then. Sometimes, but usually not.
2) When I look ad Rod's MA's they act very funny - 10SMA and 5SMA on lower TFs almost exactly the same. So even though we are bouncing of the resistance, it is not a normal bounce. Too flat.
3) This resistance was pierced over and over...
I'll be happy if it gets to 3800. I'm already at BE +1 :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #8,310
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:13pm Nov 8, 2011 5:13pm
Lovepips,
Always good to have discourse and exchange ideas.

The strains in the Euro members remain very great. Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland have only just started down the road.

It will not take much more to spark a rebellion against the costs that being Euro members imposes. It is one thing to pass austerity budgets and live with a sword dangling over ones head. But for it to be sustained over the next five years, without having growth return and some vision that the hard times are behind, that I think is the end of the union.

We have Europe officialy being acknowledged as entering a "mild recession" last ECB press conference.
This is far from a path to recovery. People who are in economic trouble have short fuses. More and greater social unrest is my forecast.

I wish this was not the case, but it appears to be what is to come.
  • #8,311
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:29pm Nov 8, 2011 5:29pm
Phew!!

Just finished catching up on all the posts I missed while I was out at Berlusconi's pre-resignation bunga bunga party.

Jokes aside, Europe is in a fine mess right now. It was not supposed to come to this. All the plans to make plans to make a deal have backfired in Mer-k-ozy's face. Nobody is interested in boosting the EFSF and nobody else wants to even talk about the SPIV (recently renamed to SIV, which is exactly what it is as it cannot hold water). It looks like Germany is going to have to boost the EFSF all by themselves if they truly want to keep the EZ intact, but Merkel does not have the backing of her own people to do this. All the possible solutions (Leveraging the EFSF, Using SDRs, Mandating the ECB as a backstop) have all failed because Germany have vetoed the ideas. So what's next? A bailout for Italy? Good luck with that.

Tomorrow and Thursday I believe we may still have one last hopium fueled push to the upside, but if nothing concrete comes out by end of day Thursday, I believe the Southbound train will be departing for BearVille without warning on Friday.

Have a good night all.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #8,312
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:38pm Nov 8, 2011 5:38pm
Excellent! I am thinking too that we have one more push north, there are plenty of big boy orders left sitting and waiting for them at those supply zones, and you know as well as I do that the bigs don't give up easily. It makes sense technically and it makes sense with all that is happening in the Euro and USD, the USD is weak and the bulls are taking full advantage of that right now. Lots of uncertainty on all sides, so no real threshold break until this mess is resolved, as best it can be. Until then I am playing the side that moves, maybe I am wrong and we fall like a rock, but for now that is my humble opinion.

Quoting PipTrapper
Phew!!

Just finished catching up on all the posts I missed while I was out at Berlusconi's pre-resignation bunga bunga party.

Jokes aside, Europe is in a fine mess right now. It was not supposed to come to this. All the plans to make plans to make a deal have backfired in Mer-k-ozy's face. Nobody is interested in boosting the EFSF and nobody else wants to even talk about the SPIV (recently renamed to SIV, which is exactly what it is as it cannot hold water). It looks like Germany is going to have to boost the EFSF all by themselves if they...
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #8,313
  • Nov 8, 2011 5:45pm Nov 8, 2011 5:45pm
Quoting foto
Lovepips,
Always good to have discourse and exchange ideas.

The strains in the Euro members remain very great. Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland have only just started down the road.

It will not take much more to spark a rebellion against the costs that being Euro members imposes. It is one thing to pass austerity budgets and live with a sword dangling over ones head. But for it to be sustained over the next five years, without having growth return and some vision that the hard times are behind, that I think is the end of the union....
yes unfortunately, there probably will be more unrest - however if REAL political leadership is shown and IF people believe they are being treated fairly. Then perhaps we may not see 'blood on the streets'.

I know that's 2 big IFs', but as Mr. Papendreou has shown when people are faced with a stark choice - IN or OUT of the euro - people tend to choose IN. What's the alternative......?? back to local currencies? the world has moved on, things are too integrated and the option of getting out of the EURO raises to many unanswerable questions for most people.

Looks like euro is turning up and won't get to 3800
patience is a virtue
  • #8,314
  • Nov 8, 2011 8:12pm Nov 8, 2011 8:12pm
missed 3850's busy w work
shorted at 3840+

and on positive instantly.. hoping to move SL to BE soon...
  • #8,315
  • Edited 8:54pm Nov 8, 2011 8:18pm | Edited 8:54pm
Quoting drtorque
missed 3850's busy w work
shorted at 3840+

and on positive instantly.. hoping to move SL to BE soon...
The rising trend line on the 4 hour chart and the 1.3850 ceiling both generate really good signals for scalping. And they should continue to work wonders every time but the last time.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,316
  • Nov 8, 2011 8:21pm Nov 8, 2011 8:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Phew!!

Just finished catching up on all the posts I missed while I was out at Berlusconi's pre-resignation bunga bunga party.

Jokes aside, Europe is in a fine mess right now. It was not supposed to come to this. All the plans to make plans to make a deal have backfired in Mer-k-ozy's face. Nobody is interested in boosting the EFSF and nobody else wants to even talk about the SPIV (recently renamed to SIV, which is exactly what it is as it cannot hold water). It looks like Germany is going to have to boost the EFSF all by themselves if they...
Things have gone from problematic to really, really bad. Governments and bond markets are collapsing at the same time.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,317
  • Nov 8, 2011 8:34pm Nov 8, 2011 8:34pm
Quoting AaronWard
Things have gone from problematic to really, really bad. Governments and bond markets are collapsing at the same time.
its ok, its all floating on a giant sea of debased usd.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,318
  • Nov 8, 2011 8:35pm Nov 8, 2011 8:35pm
I just read a report that Germany's debt numbers, which include govt. corp. and personal total debt % is not that far behind the USA. In other words the last two years Germany has been building its debt under the radar and now that they are needed to bail out the system they really dont have the room to do it anymore. By themselves they are not in real serious shape but they no longer have the room to help as much as people think. Also China, though not as bad as USA and Germany in the govt. and personal debt dept. are really behind the 8 ball in corp. debt. Their corp. debt ratios are actually higher than Germany and USA. The worldwide slowdown has affected them more than what was known and companies have been borrowing heavily to keep the party going. They may not be able to do it much longer. Not very pretty. Anyway my point would be Germany and China are not able to help out as much as others may think they can.

I floated this idea once before and I wonder if it would be worth serious consideration. No haircuts but all payments go to principal and we have a world wide suspension of interest payments. In other words bond holders get their money back and govt get a chance to de-leverage. If we dont do something soon I am afraid this whole thing will blow. I would think bond holders having a chance to get 100% of their principal back would be better than massive defaults. I dont know is that a no can do idea??
  • #8,319
  • Edited 9:28pm Nov 8, 2011 8:53pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting nanningbob
I just read a report that Germany's debt numbers, which include govt. corp. and personal total debt % is not that far behind the USA.

. No haircuts but all payments go to principal and we have a world wide suspension of interest payments.

Hey Bob.

The first key problem is rate of debt increase. I haven't seen the numbers, but from this aspect the US debt worries me the most. However, the US also has the best tools to deal with their debt.

The second key problem is that all the economic models are based upon the idea of a "temporary" recession followed by a continued period of growth. What seems far more likely is that we are facing a long flat period.

As for suspending interest payments on a global basis...I kind of like the idea but see a few immediate problems. First, it would crash the global bond markets. Second, it would trigger a world wide credit event as everybody would be in default all at the same time and that would be really bad for the CDS guys. Third, it would create a crisis of confidence when everybody says "today they are not paying me interest, tomorrow they wont pay me my principle". Fourth, it still won't solve the problem that governments are not able to balance their budgets. Fifth, these governments would now be living in a world without bond markets and so would have some trouble financing their spending problem.

However, this is still an "orderly" event and so is better than some of the other "disorderly" possibilities.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #8,320
  • Nov 8, 2011 9:15pm Nov 8, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hey Bob.

The first key problem is rate of debt increase. I haven't seen the numbers, but from this aspect the US debt worries me the most. However, the US also has the best tools to deal with their debt.

The second key problem is that all the economic models are based upon the idea of a "temporary" recession followed by a continued period of growth. What seems far more likely is that we are facing a long flat period.

As for suspending interest payments on a global basis...I kind of like the idea but see a few immediate problems. First,...
Well, I believe the flat area will continue because of the debt load. Without deleveraging there will be no real growth. Govt. cant deleverage because of no growth. Some where somehow there has to be a deleveraging and someone has to take a hit. At this point if I have money out there, (like my SS fund, over 40% of US govt. debt is financed by the SS fund) and I want to protect it, I would be more than happy to take principal payments so it is still there for another day. I would think the bond market would feel the same. I get my money back versus dang I think it is a goner. I dont know enough about those markets to know what would really happen but the alternative seems much worse.
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