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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #8,281
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:22pm Nov 8, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting foto
Although the 20 sma on the 8 hour bar yielded this morning the 20 sma on the daily held against quite the onslaught of the Euro bulls.

For whatever the reason if one looks at the daily going back for 1 year the 1.3840 level has been the demarcation line between an upper and lower trading ranges.

20 sma is 1.3847

Now I cannot blame those who despise the USD for what it has become, but is the Euro so superior?

What is evolving is political chaos descending upon Europe. How that will buttress a solution for sovereign debt is questionable...
yes just looking at the 4h candle and sure enough it opened at 3843 and has only gone lower...
patience is a virtue
  • #8,282
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:27pm Nov 8, 2011 2:27pm
lovepips,
We seem to be at one of those levels where the market will make a choice.
This level has been holding for the last five days.
So if it holds then we go down,(1.3500 is first target) if it fails then we see 1.4200 again.
  • #8,283
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:30pm Nov 8, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting foto
lovepips,
We seem to be at one of those levels where the market will make a choice.
This level has been holding for the last five days.
So if it holds then we go down, if it fails then we see 1.4200 again.
Anything is possible, but I would be flabbergasted if we saw 1.42 again, last time we saw 1.42 Italy wasn't on the brink, Spain to follow suit and the EU thought they could get hundreds of billions for their Special Purpose Vehicle which not one G20 country agreed to invest in, plus, their EFSF bond auction yesterday was pretty much a failure.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #8,284
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:35pm Nov 8, 2011 2:35pm
CNBC TV is calling this the "Bunga Bunga Bounce"
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #8,285
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:36pm Nov 8, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting foto
It will take a political solution to keep Europe together.
A bunch of bureaucrats making decisions about how to go forward is a disaster about to happen. They have book smarts and degrees but no knowledge of how the world works.

To paraphrase a well known businessman, Politics is the art of the deal.
Beauraucrats are good at filling in forms, not putting together lasting deals.
yes I agree... if the politicians can agree to tighter fiscal integration then the euro should be fine (assuming all the required reforms are undertaken)... if they wanted they could 1. print more money or 2. introduce eurobonds

its easy - not sure what all the fuss is about
patience is a virtue
  • #8,286
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:37pm Nov 8, 2011 2:37pm
1.4200 is not so far away. Nor out of reach if liquidity provided by Benny fuels another equities rally.
Since the ECB is not providing it, you can be sure that bubbles Bernanke is thinking it.
  • #8,287
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:38pm Nov 8, 2011 2:38pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45198926

Greek party officials were tight-lipped about why the naming of the new prime minister, which had been expected on Monday, had not yet happened.
  • #8,288
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:40pm Nov 8, 2011 2:40pm
EURUSD short entered just now at 1.3843, wish me luck ;-) The 200 period sma on the 1 hour chart has moved down a lot from when it was at 1.39 that many were looking for the 1.3858 roughly. This pair was looking overbought in some time frames, so I am hoping for a nice swing down overnight into asian session. But I do expect maybe in European session a swing back up so hopefully I can stay awake (since I'm in NY) and profit on the short and then take a long into tomorrow morning for what might be last push higher? and then flip back to short side? ... hmmmm ....
  • #8,289
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:41pm Nov 8, 2011 2:41pm
lovepips the problem in Europe remains the disconnect between the work and save ethic of Northern Europe and the cultures of the peripheral countries.
To date no one is going to convince the Germans to work until they are 70 yrs. of age so as to transfer tax dollars to support the social systems of others.
That is the great flaw in the structure of the Euro.
  • #8,290
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:43pm Nov 8, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting foto
1.4200 is not so far away. Nor out of reach if liquidity provided by Benny fuels another equities rally.
Since the ECB is not providing it, you can be sure that bubbles Bernanke is thinking it.
I just think the fact that Italian bonds might go over 7% this week is the end game. The rate is at 6.769% right now, and Europe doesn't have enough firepower to bailout Greece, there is no way they have $2 trillion to bailout Italy.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #8,291
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:45pm Nov 8, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting nyfx718
EURUSD short entered just now at 1.3843, wish me luck ;-) The 200 period sma on the 1 hour chart has moved down a lot from when it was at 1.39 that many were looking for the 1.3858 roughly. This pair was looking overbought in some time frames, so I am hoping for a nice swing down overnight into asian session. But I do expect maybe in European session a swing back up so hopefully I can stay awake (since I'm in NY) and profit on the short and then take a long into tomorrow morning for what might be last push higher? and then flip back to short side?...
sounds like a good plan, I entered a short at 3840.... SL is now 1 pip above BE not sure how far down this will go so planning to check again in about 10hrs :-)
patience is a virtue
  • #8,292
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:46pm Nov 8, 2011 2:46pm
Quoting foto
lovepips the problem in Europe remains the disconnect between the work and save ethic of Northern Europe and the cultures of the peripheral countries.
To date no one is going to convince the Germans to work until they are 70 yrs. of age so as to transfer tax dollars to support the social systems of others.
That is the great flaw in the structure of the Euro.
Either they become the United States of Europe with a strong central Federal Government, or they won't make it. I think hell will have to freeze over for that to happen, but its how the US works and how we amassed 14 trillion in debt, lol, although 5 trillion of that is for 2 wars that Bush borrowed money to pay for while at the same time giving everyone a huge tax cut that we've had for 10 years now.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #8,293
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:47pm Nov 8, 2011 2:47pm
Good luck!!
I am short for about 2 hours. My target is 1,3795. Sydney sessions is awful, this is time for sleep.

Quoting nyfx718
EURUSD short entered just now at 1.3843, wish me luck ;-) The 200 period sma on the 1 hour chart has moved down a lot from when it was at 1.39 that many were looking for the 1.3858 roughly. This pair was looking overbought in some time frames, so I am hoping for a nice swing down overnight into asian session. But I do expect maybe in European session a swing back up so hopefully I can stay awake (since I'm in NY) and profit on the short and then take a long into tomorrow morning for what might be last push higher? and then flip back to short side?...
  • #8,294
  • Edited 2:54pm Nov 8, 2011 2:47pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting Pipsforall
We truly live in Eurhopia. Not enough money to bail out Italy, yield at 6.797%. 7% is doomsday, lol, gotta love this euro rally though. Talk about a market in total denial.
IMO, it's not a good idea to be too static and unidimensional when analyzing FA. Although your comments on the bond market are completely right you can't dismiss the other factors as in any pair there are 2 sides.

FED was extremely vocal with QE3 today weaking the dollar across the board. On the EZ debt front we still have Greece and Italian politicians to decide (next hours) before we can see the final reaction on bond market short term...for the mid term picture is/will be as blur as ever on that front after...but 1st the 1st...

My 2 cents

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #8,295
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:49pm Nov 8, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting lovepips
sounds like a good plan, I entered a short at 3840.... SL is now 1 pip above BE not sure how far down this will go so planning to check again in about 10hrs :-)
Seriously, I can't believe that the market is rallying on this news and completely ignoring reality, Bersculoni resigning, and he hasn't yet, won't make the Italian bond yield move down tomorrow, nor will it mean that the Italians will be able to cut enough from government expenditures to service their bonds at these rates, the ECB can't even keep the rate down, wait till the vigilantes attack Spain.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #8,296
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:50pm Nov 8, 2011 2:50pm
Pipsforall,
I am with you and have been speaking the Bear growl for quite some time.
But why the Euro is still up at these levels after everything that has been going on, also says that there is something really wrong with the USD.

The charts I watch put the 1.4200 level within reach, only slightly above the 2.5 std deviation from the 20 sma on the daily. So on the dailies it is not too far out there.
  • #8,297
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:54pm Nov 8, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting sisse
IMO, it's not a going a idea to be too static and unidimensional when analyzing FA. Although your comments on the bond market are completely right you can't dismiss the other factors as in any pair there are 2 sides.

FED was extremely vocal with QE3 today weaking the dollar across the board. On the EZ debt front we still have Greece and Italian politicians to decide (next hours) before we can see the final reaction on bond market short term...for the mid term picture is/will be as blur as ever on that front after...but 1st the 1st...

My 2...
I agree, I don't trade on fundamentals, just the technicals, I was short and long on the Euro today, but, still doesn't mean I'm not bewildered by the fact that Europe keeps deteriorating fundamentally, but its currency continues to rally when there is a myriad of factors that is bringing about its downfall, I just think its a market in denial.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #8,298
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:57pm Nov 8, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting foto
Pipsforall,
I am with you and have been speaking the Bear growl for quite some time.
But why the Euro is still up at these levels after everything that has been going on, also says that there is something really wrong with the USD.

The charts I watch put the 1.4200 level within reach, only slightly above the 2.5 std deviation from the 20 sma on the daily. So on the dailies it is not too far out there.
You're 100% correct, Bernanke has made the dollar a worthless investment.
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #8,299
  • Nov 8, 2011 2:59pm Nov 8, 2011 2:59pm
There is the possibility that todays US election will send a message to the Fed that its days of runaway insanity is drawing to a close. But then again Bernanke is starting to foam at the mouth.

edit: have a good one all
  • #8,300
  • Nov 8, 2011 3:11pm Nov 8, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting Pipsforall
I agree, I don't trade on fundamentals, just the technicals, I was short and long on the Euro today, but, still doesn't mean I'm not bewildered by the fact that Europe keeps deteriorating fundamentally, but its currency continues to rally when there is a myriad of factors that is bringing about its downfall, I just think its a market in denial.
I see but well don't overact, euro hasn't gone anywhere and is not rally at all. Its barely +40 ticks up this week (which is statistically insignificantly flat) and still a couple of dozen ticks down this month.... In simple words, this week move hasn't even started, obviously in TA because we haven't test R (1.388x) yet and we are trading air in my books....if they are going to sell, like always only "dumb" money will sell at the lows....we'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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