EUR/CHF

SNB in the market?

No it's just some Swiss data

ZURICH, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves dropped in October, data showed on Friday, the second month of its cap on the Swiss franc.
The SNB's forex holdings fell to 243 billion Swiss francs in October from a revised 282 billion francs in September, data prepared by the SNB for the International Monetary Fund showed.
After the franc nearly touched parity with the euro and threatened to tip the country into recession, the SNB on Sept. 6 announced it would cap the franc at 1.20 per euro, using unlimited currency interventions if needed.
(Reporting by Catherine Bosley)

Swiss corporations sell CHF. But how strong are they?

Yesterday's speech of the member of the SNB's governing board:
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id...103_jpd.en.pdf
Read from part II (page 8). They sound pretty committed to holding 1.20 and continue stating that even at 1.20 the franc is still quite high.

ZURICH, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc softened against the euro and the dollar on Friday after a Swiss central bank board member said the previous evening the bank would take steps beyond the franc cap to protect the Swiss economy if deflationary risks increase.
The franc has traded in a range against the euro ever since the Swiss National Bank capped it at a maximum of 1.20 francs to the euro on Sept 6, following the single currency as it trended lower against the dollar as the euro zone debt crisis lingered.
"Even at a rate of 1.20 francs peer euro, the Swiss franc remains high. It should continue to weaken over time," SNB board member Jean-Pierre Danthine said at an event for money market traders in Geneva on Thursday, reiterating comments made by Chairman Philipp Hildebrand last month.

"If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, further measures will be taken."
Danthine's speech followed a surprise European Central Bank interest rate cut on Thursday when new President Mario Draghi said the euro zone could subside into a "mild recession" in the latter part of 2011.
The franc fell 0.7 percent against the euro compared to the New York close to trade at 1.2215 francs to the euro by 0826 GMT.
The franc fell 0.7 percent against the dollar to trade at 0.885 francs to the dollar.
All eyes will be on developments in Greece on Friday for the latest episode of the European debt crisis drama that has bounced single currency buyers between despair and euphoria.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a cliff-hanger confidence vote after his plan for a referendum on an EU/IMF bailout -- supposed to save both Greece and the euro zone from disaster -- backfired spectacularly.

...
Even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc remains high. It should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, further measures will be taken. (page 11)

this text is from http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id...103_jpd.en.pdf

04-11-2011 20:32 *DJ CFTC: Net Euro Short Decreases To 60,060 Contracts As Of Nov 1 http://www.swissquote.ch/gifs/ico_pre_grey.gif
04-11-2011 20:32 *DJ CFTC: Net Swiss Franc Short Increases To 1,746 Contracts As Of Nov 1 http://www.swissquote.ch/gifs/ico_pre_grey.gif
04-11-2011 20:31 *DJ CFTC: Net Swiss Franc Short Position $250 Million, Increases 44%

anybody got any information what may be happening in switzerland during the next week, the general elections effected the price a couple of weeks ago, is there anything else that anybody knows about that may effect the price, thanks.

Live 1.2238 x 1.2247

By Goran Mijuk
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ZURICH (Dow Jones)--Thousands of job cuts in the past few weeks and fears the Swiss economy will come to an abrupt halt are triggering fresh calls for the central bank to act to weaken the franc.
Public concern over the currency's value has increased as Swiss firms such as drugs giant Novartis AG (NVS), elevator maker Schindler Holding AG (SCHN.EB) and technology company Kudelski SA (KUD.EB) recently moved to cut thousands of jobs here.
The staff cuts in the industrial sector come as banks such as Credit Suisse Group (CS), UBS AG (UBS), Julius Baer Group (BAER.VX) and EFG International AG (EFGN.EB) are also axing hundreds of jobs.
Fears are that tens of thousands of jobs could be cut over the next few quarters if the franc fails to weaken, aggravating the situation for the country's export-oriented economy and as the world risks sliding into recession.
One of the first officials to urge the Swiss National Bank to take more action was Swiss foreign trade secretary, Marie-Gabrielle Ineichen-Fleisch, who in early October highlighted the continued plight of the export industry. Her concerns are now echoed by influential Swiss think tank EconomieSuisse and Serge Gaillard, who heads the Labor Directorate at the country's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.
The SNB in September introduced a trading floor to keep the euro from falling below CHF1.2, warning it would do anything needed to protect this level. The rare step was taken after the central bank failed to rein in the franc's rise despite cutting interest rates close to zero and flooding the money market with liquidity.
"The franc is still significantly overvalued, because the fair value stands between CHF1.3 and CHF1.4 against the euro", EconomieSuisse president Gerold Buehrer told Swiss weekly SonntagsZeitung. "I hope the central bank will increase the floor, when they have an opportunity."
Gaillard told NZZ am Sonntag that he expects some 40,000 jobs to go if the franc retains it present strength at 1.2208 against the euro.
During the past few days, SNB President Philipp Hildebrand and central bank board member Jean-Pierre Danthine have both renewed the central bank's pledge to take more action if necessary, but declined to detail their potential steps. Both warned the economy is set to cool markedly this year and next.
While many question the wisdom of an imminent Swiss move, given the euro zone's debt crisis that could spur renewed safe-haven inflows and complicate the central bank's task, some market participants expect a fresh floor at CHF1.25.
Pablo Frei, of Zurich-based Quaesta Capital, said that fears of more layoffs have changed perceptions and that a new floor "seems to be a broadly supported idea."


06-11-2011 12:40 SNB Head: Bank Ready To Take Additional Franc Measures -Report


ZURICH -(Dow Jones)- The head of the Swiss National Bank said it is ready to take "more measures" if needed to weaken the Swiss franc and support the economy, a newspaper reports Sunday.
"We are observing the data and will take more measures if needed," SNB President Philipp Hildebrand tells Swiss weekly NZZ am Sonntag in its weekend edition when asked if the bank is considering to increase the euro/franc floor to CHF1.3.
The SNB in September introduced a euro/franc floor at CHF1.2, a move aimed at weakening the local currency, which earlier this year almost reached parity to the euro and risked hurting the economy. In recent weeks, pressure has increased on the SNB to increase the currency floor.
"The franc's value is still high at the current level," Hildebrand tells the paper. "We expect that the franc will weaken over time." The euro ended trading at 1.2208 against the franc this week.
Hildebrand said that while the European debt crisis was "alarming", he noted that the economic situation in the U.S. and Switzerland was better than in 2008.
However, Hildebrand said that because of the present crisis "growth will stagnate at best" in Switzerland for the remainder of the year. And the best-case scenario for 2012 would be for the economy to achieve very meager growth, Hildebrand said.

Thanks for that Doc.

big gap. changed to buy some usdchf, same thing, no big gap. (already in EURCHF since last week as well)

No time for explanation, just know that on Tuesday we have Phillip Hildebrand SNB Press Conference. You better be in the market BEFORE.

Check FF Calendar.

Weekend Press in Switzeraland was full of SNB articles, all talking about
increading pressure coming from Swiss Companies to weaken the Franc.
(source: NZZ from Sunday)

What is gonna happen:

- Rumours will bring EURCHF to 1.25 in the next 1-3 days
- SNB will intervene again, my best guess is sooner than most expect.
Earliest today or tomorrow, the latest within 14 days.
-Revision of my earlier forecast from 1.25 to 1.30

Two most important pointers to be aware: VERY low inflation in Switzerland, Rate cut of Draghi EZB of .25 to 1.25 which will give the SNB much better chances to succeed, although they do not need it.


Will monitor how far back eurchf will come down again, i am certain it will not be far.

Ps. if you will not invest now, with a position that can hold around 200 pips drawdown, you will most likely miss the move.

It is free money if you calculate right. Take it.

greets Tp

Proud Swiss Citizen.

big gap from 1.2199 to 1.2269
what you say that?

Price is currently trading at 1.2267.


Attached is a link of an Interview with P.Hildebrand (not translated);
http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/wirtsc....13233857.html

Cheers

You are asking the wrong question. Like many do.
Also, we see many long posts in this thread, they do not help at all.
You can always bring enough reasons why not, why yes, why when.

The Gap is coming from smart money, interbank exchange, and
other factors. edit: one of the majors is what is happening in Greece Politics this Sunday. end edit.
My specialty is psychological analysis of market participants and Swiss Politics, not technicals.

greetings tp

look at the 5 min chart, see that little spike? i had a negative drawdown
for a very short time. Now i am in profit already, that can change of course.
I do not care, i will not close this position. No way.

Speculating the SNB move will go against every bone in your body,
it will feel eventually at some stage wrong when you are in minus.
This is the price you must be willing to pay to obtain victory.

long eurchf 1.22782 for the next few hours,
expecting anticipating buying. Little money needed to move price
because volume is very low. My USDCHF position i bought 45 minutes ago
is covering these expenses.

Thanks for the advice.

Just got me some sleep, and took out the luxury to sleep till 10 AM.

Looking back i can say that this was the most accurate call i made.
Several buy stops got triggered while i was asleep. That is what i am watching now. The USDCHF position i bought is now in 4 figure profit and
what is better, pretty save from price to come back anytime soon.

All i want is a cushion of price and anticipated buying b4 P.H SNB President speach tomorrow. So i have my positions already in place and can put some stops. I have not one single stop in my EURCHF positions as of now.
When the day is over, i will analyze how secure my positions are. Eventually i will take some profit on the weak ones, and leave the strong ones.

Did anybody buy some earlier today? Would love to hear from you in case you may have been able to profit in either EURCHF or USDCHF.

greetings and green pips to YOU!

Enjoying my coffee

tp

Today at 17:45/18:45 London/Frankfurt time we have Mr Jordan, who will attend a panel discussion at the europe forum in Lucerne.
Chances are, this could bring some more volatility.

It is also marked in the FF Calendar of today.
Gov Board Member Jordan Speaks

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_upnext.gif 18:45 CHF
Gov Board Member Jordan Speaks

impressive rebound on both pairs EURCHF USDCHF.
Seems like some bigger players do not wanna miss the party