EurAnalysis | Page 361 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #7,201
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:41pm Nov 2, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep
already answered
  • #7,202
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:42pm Nov 2, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting Blobik
And I start to wonder, would he raise rates if went short before statement

Hmm. I wanted to try one more scalp today... But the price is moving like a zombie... slowly moves lower, but it is not promising enought yet...


The question you want to ask is...
"Will the Euro go down if Draghi cut rates?"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,203
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:43pm Nov 2, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
You've been paying attention
Keep it up mate. You're doing very well.
Thanks , for this kind of situations my perfect asset is gold... having in mind possible risk in ECB "possible rate cut"... Please remember I said possible twice and with this it's a third one.

And if market is risk on... it also helps

Pbh
  • #7,204
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:44pm Nov 2, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
"Will the Euro go down if Draghi cut rates?"
For the first time in few months, they'd be helping the economy.. so I don't know, "price action never lies" some say...

Will see
  • #7,205
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:49pm Nov 2, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper


The question you want to ask is...
"Will the Euro go down if Draghi cut rates?"
PT there was an article at the weekend stating that if Draghi leaves rates unchanged it signifies that they are leaving the peripheries to fend for themselves i.e a gradual euro breakup! For me what has added to this is Papendreou allowing his citizens to determine the short term and well inevitably long term life of Greece. I believe politicians are slowly breaking up the euro! and well I feel its only a matter of time before France comes under scrutiny by bond investors(it already has began) 16%cds and a AAA rating?? How long can this BS last?? Not very in my opinion expect some major market movers early next year.. Possibly march
  • #7,206
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:56pm Nov 2, 2011 2:56pm
Quoting PipTrapper
"Will the Euro go down if Draghi cut rates?"
I'd have to say ecb cut will be usd positive. Further uncertainty re: Greece (now we wait for a referendum in December, or no ok prolly it is postponed til January, etc) is euro negative. No new QE from Ben was usd positive. ADP was pos. so NFP most of the time follows, and if it does, that'd be pro usd.

Take it all with a grain of salt if CB's continue to intervene, pump usd liquidity to hobbled eurozone banks, etc - in that case, anything can happen and usual chickenbone indicators will not work.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,207
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:56pm Nov 2, 2011 2:56pm
it seems like there is something going on s & p was up big with dow and euro barely moved.
  • #7,208
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:58pm Nov 2, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting RodMca
PT there was an article at the weekend stating that if Draghi leaves rates unchanged it signifies that they are leaving the peripheries to fend for themselves i.e a gradual euro breakup! For me what has added to this is Papendreou allowing his citizens to determine the short term and well inevitably long term life of Greece. I believe politicians are slowly breaking up the euro! and well I feel its only a matter of time before France comes under scrutiny by bond investors(it already has began) 16%cds and a AAA rating?? How long can this BS last??...
I would love to comment on all the above but I'm going to remain tight lipped about what I think right now. I would rather see how the G20 meetings go first.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,209
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:59pm Nov 2, 2011 2:59pm
Hmm, speaking of risk on... I just looked at EURPLN and USDPLN for a sec... during first EUR wave, PLN dropped like a stone and the same in previous 2 days, but today it strengtened and took back almost everything it lost yesterday. I was thinking to short some EUR or USDs against PLN, as the price right now is a bit overvalued, but I am still waiting for a higher level (to enter a long-term position trade). But it seems a powerful risk on, so the PLN strenghtened so much even though polish rate cut is possible in near future. In fact, it didn't show such good recovery in last few weeks (or even months). So even 'exotic' currencies do well... only EUR is unable to go up...

Oil skyrocketed back to the level it dropped from previously... (why oh why didn't I set wider SLs on oil longs... Nah, forget it, it happened and won't get changed now). So indeed, I started to focus too much on EUR...

ADD: ... which seems to be going for tripple/double bottom.
  • #7,210
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:02pm Nov 2, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting greg2514
it seems like there is something going on s & p was up big with dow and euro barely moved.
It's not always 100% correlated. You have to expect some divergence here and there.
Many times I have seen the SP500 and the USD Index rise concurrently and the Euro stays flat.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,211
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:04pm Nov 2, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting The Fool
I'd have to say ecb cut will be usd positive. Further uncertainty re: Greece (now we wait for a referendum in December, or no ok prolly it is postponed til January, etc) is euro negative. No new QE from Ben was usd positive. ADP was pos. so NFP most of the time follows, and if it does, that'd be pro usd.

Take it all with a grain of salt if CB's continue to intervene, pump usd liquidity to hobbled eurozone banks, etc - in that case, anything can happen and usual chickenbone indicators will not work.
It's a mad mad mad mad world
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,212
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:12pm Nov 2, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting PipTrapper
It's not always 100% correlated. You have to expect some divergence here and there.
Many times I have seen the SP500 and the USD Index rise concurrently and the Euro stays flat.
If ecb cuts and starts on the QE trail then the usd/risk inv. correlation could be eroded somewhat. Then if the eurozone crisis mellows out while the ECB & Fed rates tend to equalize the paradigm could be out the window. We could have a more balanced e/u where the rate would actually move in relation to the day-to-day fundies. Wow, what a concept.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,213
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:12pm Nov 2, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting Blobik
Hmm, speaking of risk on... I just looked at EURPLN and USDPLN for a sec... during first EUR wave, PLN dropped like a stone and the same in previous 2 days, but today it strengtened and took back almost everything it lost yesterday. I was thinking to short some EUR or USDs against PLN, as the price right now is a bit overvalued, but I am still waiting for a higher level (to enter a long-term position trade). But it seems a powerful risk on, so the PLN strenghtened so much even though polish rate cut is possible in near future. In fact, it didn't...
I think everybody realizes that the Euro is FUBAR, but as long as the ECB and the Fed keep propping it up, the downside risk is significantly mitigated. Therefore I don't feel comfy shorting while price is below the 1.39/1.40 level right now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,214
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:19pm Nov 2, 2011 3:19pm
All aid to Greece frozen until referendum!

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=323764
  • #7,215
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:20pm Nov 2, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting The Fool
If ecb cuts and starts on the QE trail then the usd/risk inv. correlation could be eroded somewhat. Then if the eurozone crisis mellows out while the ECB & Fed rates tend to equalize the paradigm could be out the window. We could have a more balanced e/u where the rate would actually move in relation to the day-to-day fundies. Wow, what a concept.
I remember those days (pre 2008)
It was far easi8er to pull loads of green pips back then
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,216
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:23pm Nov 2, 2011 3:23pm
Quoting nyfx718
All aid to Greece frozen until referendum!

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=323764
This is possibly more Euro positive than negative because it gives the Greek gov an incentive to do a much better job at convincing the people to support its mandate... or else
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,217
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:25pm Nov 2, 2011 3:25pm
And EURUSD got "turned off"... no movement... Seems FOMC and Bennys info is quite undigestable for the market. Or it is "I completely dunno what to tell about this" info.
  • #7,218
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:25pm Nov 2, 2011 3:25pm
When is the referendum? Wasn't someone saying that if they froze aid, greece might not have enough funds to make it to referendum and go bankrupt. Though that could be the best thing for EU in long run, wouldn't it add much uncertainty sourronding their currency causing it to drop, i.e. risk off.

Quoting PipTrapper
This is possibly more Euro positive than negative because it gives the Greek gov an incentive to do a much better job at convincing the people to support its mandate... or else
  • #7,219
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:26pm Nov 2, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
This is possibly more Euro positive than negative because it gives the Greek gov an incentive to do a much better job at convincing the people to support its mandate... or else
PT - man you're really good..
NO BIAS!

showing the finger to Pappandreu hahaha
  • #7,220
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:31pm Nov 2, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I remember those days (pre 2008)
It was far easi8er to pull loads of green pips back then
very lovelly nights and days... i wanna their come back....
Let us be green
40 traders viewing now