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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #7,181
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:47pm Nov 2, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting drtorque
yeah thats smart to be flat..
Too bad I didn't remind myself about it after last Benny's speech. I was in such a nice profit then

Seems 1.375 is resisting tough, but I think your long might make it... + Rod's system seems to be showing some upward potential
  • #7,182
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:50pm Nov 2, 2011 1:50pm
If you are a trader who cares about economy, you MUST listen to this.

Inserted Video
  • #7,183
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:53pm Nov 2, 2011 1:53pm
If the following is true, then it should be Euro positive compared to the unknown.


Referendum will be about the bailout deal not euro membership
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,184
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:57pm Nov 2, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting Blobik
Too bad I didn't remind myself about it after last Benny's speech. I was in such a nice profit then

Seems 1.375 is resisting tough, but I think your long might make it... + Rod's system seems to be showing some upward potential
Be cautious Blobik keep an eye on the 5min the sma's are almost sideways looking for a clear directional breakout but the M15's sma's have crossed maybe hazard a small long I'm staying flat I made a nice few pips from the sell off at 1.38. Be cautious if you do trade though!
  • #7,185
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:59pm Nov 2, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting Blobik
Too bad I didn't remind myself about it after last Benny's speech. I was in such a nice profit then

Seems 1.375 is resisting tough, but I think your long might make it... + Rod's system seems to be showing some upward potential
I dont see how, but if it breaks 3790s maybe...
  • #7,186
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:02pm Nov 2, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If the following is true, then it should be Euro positive compared to the unknown.


Referendum will be about the bailout deal not euro membership
But isn't it like referendum = postponing things, and postponing things - risk that Greece won't get money, no tranche = Greek disorder default?

I think that is the logic market follows, am I right? The disorder (100%) default is still not priced, as there is no possibility to predict consequences (how will it affect the banks and so on, theoretically in worst case it may cause banks falling, France being forced to nationalize it and lose AAA rating, finally tumbling in other PIIS, and potentialy them do default (orderly or not), creating a bank crash chain reaction. But that is faaaaar from being priced in, as we cannot bet on it yet. But if Greece defaulted (100%)... Bear fest?
  • #7,187
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:03pm Nov 2, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting RodMca
Be cautious Blobik keep an eye on the 5min the sma's are almost sideways looking for a clear directional breakout but the M15's sma's have crossed maybe hazard a small long I'm staying flat I made a nice few pips from the sell off at 1.38. Be cautious if you do trade though!
No I am still flat. I think some ppl watch the conference, and until Benny answers all questions, it is a bad idea to trade. Oh, he finished right now.

ADD: Agreed, M5 MA's give a signal they they won't be giving reliable signals for some time. I noticed just the M15 crossing. But without confirmation on other TFs I am not willing to get in.

ADD2: Just noticed that on every TF the 10 and 5 SMA give different signals. this confluence means there is no reliable signal
  • #7,188
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:10pm Nov 2, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting Blobik
No I am still flat. I think some ppl watch the conference, and until Benny answers all questions, it is a bad idea to trade. Oh, he finished right now.

ADD: Agreed, M5 MA's give a signal they they won't be giving reliable signals for some time. I noticed just the M15 crossing. But without confirmation on other TFs I am not willing to get in.

ADD2: Just noticed that on every TF the 10 and 5 SMA give different signals. this confluence means there is no reliable signal
You've got it in one Blobik!!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
  • #7,189
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:13pm Nov 2, 2011 2:13pm
Quoting Blobik
But isn't it like referendum = postponing things, and postponing things - risk that Greece won't get money, no tranche = Greek disorder default?

I think that is the logic market follows, am I right? The disorder (100%) default is still not priced, as there is no possibility to predict consequences (how will it affect the banks and so on, theoretically in worst case it may cause banks falling, France being forced to nationalize it and lose AAA rating, finally tumbling in other PIIS, and potentialy them do default (orderly or not), creating a bank...
If Greece defaults in a disorderly fashion, you can bet your boots that it will be a bear fest.
However, there is no indication that it is a much higher risk now than it was yesterday or the day before.
The market is not going to keep jumping in and out of the sea just because there may be a shark. Either they are in or they are out. The ones who decided there is a high risk of disorderly default already got out in the last 3 trading days and the ones who are optimistic that it will not happen are not going to turn into chickens now.
Remember we still have two more days of market rocking news releases to go.
Risk is ON whether you and I like it or not
Look at equities and commodities
I would not want to be contra that right now.
I remain flat.

Also from a technical perspective, 1.3970 area has not been retested yet. It is like unfinished business. I wold be more comfortable shorting up there than here. Alternatively, I may look to enter on a pullback if I see price break and hold below 1.36 area with strong determination.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,190
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:21pm Nov 2, 2011 2:21pm
Bernanke said he's ready to do more easing, and will be behind our backs to be taking care of the situation.

That means, that they have reconsidered it, and that QE3 has bigger chances to take place.

This is actually bullish too

Pbh
  • #7,191
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:22pm Nov 2, 2011 2:22pm
In this volatile market, I actually see what you mean by speed, but also accuracy in timing tops and bottoms (of course once it aligns with other confirming indicators in larger time frames). I used 10 minute charts for timing in the past, but in this current climate, its just not real time enough and I'l either jump in a little late and not maximize profits or I jump early and have the thing run 30 to 50 pips or more against me before coming back in my favor.

Quoting AaronWard
I would seriously recommend the book by Al Brooks that MLA keeps talking about. And spend a lot of time with the 5 minute charts, at least at first. This is not because the 5 minute charts are better... but because they are faster. And this means your experience in reading chart patterns comes all that much faster.
  • #7,192
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:22pm Nov 2, 2011 2:22pm
Am out. Will not go into Asia long uSD after that presentation.
The man is incapable of saying anything supportive of the currency he is in charge of.
  • #7,193
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:22pm Nov 2, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If Greece defaults in a disorderly fashion, you can bet your boots that it will be a bear fest.
However, there is no indication that it is a much higher risk now than it was yesterday or the day before.
The market is not going to keep jumping in and out of the sea just because there may be a shark. Either they are in or they are out. The ones who decided there is a high risk of disorderly default already got out in the last 3 trading days and the ones who are optimistic that it will not happen are not going to turn into chickens now.
Remember we...
I see. Sounds reasonable.

Oh, and I just figured out why October was so bullish. Spelling mistake, bears went to Oktoberfest thinking it is bear fest, not beer fest
  • #7,194
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:26pm Nov 2, 2011 2:26pm
Quoting foto
Am out. Will not go into Asia long uSD after that presentation.
...and the ensuing results. It seems the market is reacting positively and is continuing to price in a high probability of QE should the poop look like it is going to hit the fan.

Now we see what Draghi has to say about the ECB monetary policy.

Then we have the king of all kings, the NFP
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,195
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:27pm Nov 2, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting Blobik
I see. Sounds reasonable.

Oh, and I just figured out why October was so bullish. Spelling mistake, bears went to Oktoberfest thinking it is bear fest, not beer fest
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,196
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:27pm Nov 2, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting Pbh
Bernanke said he's ready to do more easing, and will be behind our backs to be taking care of the situation.

That means, that they have reconsidered it, and that QE3 has bigger chances to take place.

This is actually bullish too

Pbh
Hmm. Seems i wasn't paying attention too well - when & how did he mention it exactly? I only got that he sees growth, unsatisfactory, but still growth, and some "bad luck" affected this growth. Not doubting or anything, but am I so tired I missed such important thing? Or was it in the last few questions, which I didn't really listen to (got bored )?
  • #7,197
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:30pm Nov 2, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting Blobik
Hmm. Seems i wasn't paying attention too well - when & how did he mention it exactly? I only got that he sees growth, unsatisfactory, but still growth, and some "bad luck" affected this growth. Not doubting or anything, but am I so tired I missed such important thing? Or was it in the last few questions, which I didn't really listen to (got bored )?
Yep
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,198
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:32pm Nov 2, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting Pbh
Bernanke said he's ready to do more easing, and will be behind our backs to be taking care of the situation.

That means, that they have reconsidered it, and that QE3 has bigger chances to take place.

This is actually bullish too

Pbh
You've been paying attention
Keep it up mate. You're doing very well.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,199
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:36pm Nov 2, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting PipTrapper
...and the ensuing results. It seems the market is reacting positively and is continuing to price in a high probability of QE should the poop look like it is going to hit the fan.

Now we see what Draghi has to say about the ECB monetary policy.

Then we have the king of all kings, the NFP
And I start to wonder, would he raise rates if went short before statement

Hmm. I wanted to try one more scalp today... But the price is moving like a zombie... slowly moves lower, but it is not promising enought yet...
  • #7,200
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:40pm Nov 2, 2011 2:40pm
It will have to come from Europe to move this pair.
This guy has no understanding the damage he is doing to the purchasing power of working people.
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