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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #1,281
  • Oct 8, 2011 7:42pm Oct 8, 2011 7:42pm
Hello Wab,

I'm afraid that you are slightly missing my point that the common ground of the most of technical analysis out there is the 19th century's world view that Gaussian or normal distribution curve represents, which is the culprit why we always lose money in the market. According to Bill Williams we need to replace the current paradigm ("brief system") presumed naively with the totally different approach known as Chaos theory. I referred the thread participants to read the Mandelbrot book as I don't think they have much interest in delving into this subject but just keen on superficially acquiring Bill's trading strategy.

However I agree to your conclusion without reservation. Thanks for your comments.
  • #1,282
  • Oct 9, 2011 1:32am Oct 9, 2011 1:32am
Quoting piptastic
wow...i dont know how you guys do this,so many indicators makes me nauseous. Im a firm believer if you still waiting on indicators to tell you when to get in and out, your not ready to trade yet.
everything dont work for everyone...why dont you find what work best for you..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,283
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:38am Oct 9, 2011 4:38am
donfriday,

Here is the chart I overlaid Chikou span on the Trading-Chaos-2nd-edition template in EURUSD, Daily.

Please notice the simple line in gold color (Close price plotted 26 time periods behind counted from the most current candle, i.e., Close[25]) disqualifies many reckless Wiseman 3 (Fractal Breakout) signals in the choppy market.

Second, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo doesn't have an exit strategy as you might be aware of. Thus I'll scrap my idea to apply Chikou span to it. It should be employed as the confirmation tool of (initial and add-on) Wiseman 3 entry only.

Finally, you may find it lagging a bit behind, however which is the cost to save our hard-earned money.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,284
  • Oct 9, 2011 4:47am Oct 9, 2011 4:47am
Quoting poyais
donfriday,

here is the chart i overlaid chikou span on the trading-chaos-2nd-edition template in eurusd, daily.

Please notice the simple line in gold color (close price plotted 26 time periods behind counted from the most current candle, i.e., close[25]) disqualifies many reckless wiseman 3 (fractal breakout) signals in the choppy market.

Second, ichimoku kinko hyo doesn't have an exit strategy as you might be aware of. Thus i'll scrap my idea to apply chikou span to it. It should be employed as the confirmation tool of (initial...

sorry none of bill williams book talk about ichimoku which i have no clue about how it work....millions of strategy work in this market it all depend on how you interpret it with your mm....
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,285
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:13am Oct 19, 2011 10:13am
Hi, I need some idea how to put the first stop loss when you opened a new position. Should we use red line or use the opposite fractal for that one.
  • #1,286
  • Oct 20, 2011 9:52am Oct 20, 2011 9:52am
Quoting nightingale
Hi, I need some idea how to put the first stop loss when you opened a new position. Should we use red line or use the opposite fractal for that one.
i guess either way is fine, it all depends on our own risk profile..
  • #1,287
  • Oct 24, 2011 2:29am Oct 24, 2011 2:29am
Quoting nightingale
hi, i need some idea how to put the first stop loss when you opened a new position. Should we use red line or use the opposite fractal for that one.



there are 3 signal for entries on this system ...if you are trading on the fractal then your entry should base on start and signal...sell or buy signal and sl at start sometime the risk is too high to take so i wait for pull back for lower risk of entries..
Bill talk about start and signal on how to use the fractal, i suggest you read it over again for better understanding..
Good luck..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,288
  • Oct 28, 2011 6:24am Oct 28, 2011 6:24am
Alligator is sleeping now after huge meal of pips yesterday! My ADR says 382, is that a record?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_002.png Size: 33 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,289
  • Oct 29, 2011 8:30am Oct 29, 2011 8:30am
Hi guys,i am happy to be here and see there is an active thread about Bill Williams.I basically used ichimoku charting system so far but i always had fractals on board also to see the swings.

So last week i got very interested in williams aproach and read almost anything about it,but i still have 2 very basic questions about it.

1)if the alligator sleeps, it wakes up after a fractal is hitted and the ''train'' starts .so by the time your order is hitted you dont know if it will really wake up.the whipsaw might continue
how alligator helps us if we set a pending order in a sleeping alligator then?

2)if the fractal is formed under the balance line(red) but hitted above is it a valid BUY fractal?Bill says it is,but different souces say that the fractal must be formed above and hitted above to be a valid one.which one is the correct one??

thanks for your feedback
Never again will fade the trend
  • #1,290
  • Oct 29, 2011 2:00pm Oct 29, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting swingfiddle
hi guys,i am happy to be here and see there is an active thread about bill williams.i basically used ichimoku charting system so far but i always had fractals on board also to see the swings.

So last week i got very interested in williams aproach and read almost anything about it,but i still have 2 very basic questions about it.

1)if the alligator sleeps, it wakes up after a fractal is hitted and the ''train'' starts .so by the time your order is hitted you dont know if it will really wake up.the whipsaw might continue
how alligator helps...
the answer is simple/// if all alligator is sleeping after a hungry day you have to wait for it to awake but before that your fractal entry will be start and signal...make sure that entry fractal you are taking have start and signal with 5 consecutive bars preceding lows and preceding lower 5 that the middle bar form fractal and sl will be at start but dont forget it depend on your risk...THE ONLY THING ALLIGATOR DOES IS CHANGE OF MOMENTUM, VOLUME AND PRICE AND TELL IF BUY ABOVE OR SELL BELOW...good luck
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,291
  • Edited 7:29pm Nov 1, 2011 7:03pm | Edited 7:29pm
Wow, big day yesterday, best day ever, but not to confuse bull market with brains! Couldn't post chart and this may be only one today.

Here is what I am watching today, will the trend continue or more "news" to reverse everything again. Currencies are all like the train in the shunt yard, back & forth, just get out of the station and go in one direction I say!

Japan is open, long time till Europe open, maybe direction will show early, or alligator will sleep longer? waiting for break of fractal, all the best.

** Attachments not working, will have to reboot.... standby

Something wrong with Chrome browser lately, try IE, price still consolidating anyway
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,292
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:08am Nov 2, 2011 3:08am
Hi Erebous,what timeframe your chart is?cant figure out..lol
Never again will fade the trend
  • #1,293
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:38am Nov 2, 2011 3:38am
That is because.... there is NO time, they are RANGE BARS

Great as they show price only
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,294
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:42am Nov 2, 2011 3:42am
Quoting Erebus
That is because.... there is NO time, they are RANGE BARS

Great as they show price only
why complicate thing, just mention the time frame of the chart ..does it hurt ur pips.....
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,295
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:43am Nov 2, 2011 3:43am
Hello guysNew to chaos theory and very enthousiastic about it.
I am posting a EUR/USD analysis on H1 Chart,i would be glad to hear your opinion on it as i am new and would like to be sure i have understand things properly.

I have some comments on chart,and the conclusion is that i ll wait first for alligator to take a nap.It starts talking a nap now but the price is going up so this might be a sign of a bad whipsaw which i hate so much lol...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 36 KB
Never again will fade the trend
  • #1,296
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:54am Nov 2, 2011 3:54am
Quoting donfriday
why complicate thing, just mention the time frame of the chart ..does it hurt ur pips.....
Just curious, what part of RANGE BARS did you not understand?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#axzz1cXIwm3T3

Range Bars to take only price into consideration, thereby eliminating time from the equation.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#ixzz1cXJiagvy
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
  • #1,297
  • Nov 2, 2011 3:55am Nov 2, 2011 3:55am
Quoting swingfiddle
Hello guysNew to chaos theory and very enthousiastic about it.
I am posting a EUR/USD analysis on H1 Chart,i would be glad to hear your opinion on it as i am new and would like to be sure i have understand things properly.

I have some comments on chart,and the conclusion is that i ll wait first for alligator to take a nap.It starts talking a nap now but the price is going up so this might be a sign of a bad whipsaw which i hate so much lol...


i cannot even analys your chart.. all i see is confusion because price action is totally lost on your chart ...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #1,298
  • Nov 2, 2011 4:21am Nov 2, 2011 4:21am
Quoting swingfiddle
Hello guysNew to chaos theory and very enthousiastic about it.
I am posting a EUR/USD analysis on H1 Chart,i would be glad to hear your opinion on it as i am new and would like to be sure i have understand things properly.

I have some comments on chart,and the conclusion is that i ll wait first for alligator to take a nap.It starts talking a nap now but the price is going up so this might be a sign of a bad whipsaw which i hate so much lol...
My thoughts? have you seen this thread?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post5094209
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
  • #1,299
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:45am Nov 2, 2011 10:45am
Quoting Callisto
My thoughts? have you seen this thread?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post5094209
lolthat was really funny hehehehe...

but guys i only have S/R lines and murray math lines as extra indies...anything else is williams indies
Never again will fade the trend
  • #1,300
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:48am Nov 2, 2011 10:48am
Quoting swingfiddle
lolthat was really funny hehehehe...

But guys i only have s/r lines and murray math lines as extra indies...anything else is williams indies
i am not confused that you have read nothing about this system..your chart says it all but i will advice you to take time to read it before you will know what to do...good luck
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
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