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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #6,421
  • Oct 31, 2011 12:08am Oct 31, 2011 12:08am
today... I checked the news expectations for this week and damn.... I inmediately said, sell.

I didn't mind if the BoJ was going to intervene or something... I just knew that it was a sure sell.

Why?

Profit taking

Why would people want to take profits if everybody expects the ECB to keep on "helping" to boost the economy?

Because it's the end of the month, and this is the most important and volatile week of the month... we got 14 high impact news releases coming out this week with poor or unchanged expectations:

 

  1. Mon October 31, 2011 – 8:30am EST - CA GDP m/m
  2. Mon October 31, 2011 – 11:30pm EST – AU RBA Interest Rate
  3. Tue November 1, 2011 – 5:30am EST – UK Manufacturing PMI & Prelim GDP q/q (15th)
  4. Tue November 1, 2011 – 10:00am EST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
  5. Wed November 2, 2011 – 8:15am EST – US ADP NFP
  6. Wed November 2, 2011 – 12:30pm EST – US FOMC Statement
  7. Wed Novemebr 2, 2011 – 2:15pm EST – US FOMC Press Conference
  8. Wed November 2, 2011 – 8:30pm EST – AU Retail Sales
  9. Thu November 3, 2011 – 5:30am EST – UK Services PMI
  10. Thu November 3, 2011 – 8:45am EST – EU ECB Interest Rate
  11. Thu November 3, 2011 – 9:30am EST – EU Press Conference
  12. Thu November 3, 2011 – 10:00am EST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
  13. Fri November 4, 2011 – 7:00am EST – CA Employment Change
  14. Fri November 4, 2011 – 8:30am EST – US Nonfarm Payroll Change

Nobody wants to be gambling their money while knowing there are no longer BETTER expectations (because the markets look up to the future).

Okay...

and after the BoJ intervention, we don't want to counter trend right?

In the picture, I show what could be tomorrow's scenario... basically, what I'm expecting. I normally don't trade the market cycle on sundays so this is just a heads up.

Any news can make me change my point of view since I'm talking about the short, short-term sentiment.

Pbh

EDIT: they're actually 15

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  • #6,422
  • Oct 31, 2011 1:46am Oct 31, 2011 1:46am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Well, Good morning my fellow trades. I've read morning review of markets and all seems to go the way it was expected. Technical analysis over run by fundamental study.

There is still no proof of long term bull to turn but signs are in the air.

Italy's bond auction at last week was failure and that had to sell bond with over 6% interest, which is crucial to economy - it is a limit of how much they can pay for their loans. Overall they couldn't raise capital what they expected. Bad news for Italy, which was "saved" at last weeks summit. This was good way to test investors confidence, which was surely poor.

Good sign is that EU leaders are actually trying to solve problem.

Now key element to solve crises is ESFS. It is not a resolution, but backup. Current solution is throwing fuel to flames. Instead of taking a fact of poor times coming up and cutting costs, countries borrow even more. Since there is no money in Old Continent to spend, they took a look at China as a savior.

But:
China says -Haa haa, you can take care of your own s..t - Same what Europe should have said in first place to Greece: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...bt-crisis.html

Anyway long term trend has been up and now today we're gone down after fast bull last week. Many big investors stopped shorts last week and are now waiting for signs where trend will go - since they are actual movers of pair, all bad news may turn long term trend once they make decisions of how to invest.

I believe this day will be crucial to show becoming trend. I wouldn't short till I get proof that this is really a bear. I stay flat for today.
  • #6,423
  • Edited 3:26am Oct 31, 2011 1:50am | Edited 3:26am
Good morning ladies and gentlemen,

we have touched low zone, which actually corresponds with weekly R1 now. PA was completely ignoring daily R1 and R2, only Pivot served as kind of a weak top.

Bull aint dead yet, this correction down has strenght of @ 44%, if compared with lows from 366x zone arount 18th Oct. That is still a weak one correction.

I still suspect ranging in the zone.

Going to work, so this is last MT4 chart.

T.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,424
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:36am Oct 31, 2011 2:36am
Quoting bumapatria
90 pips profit. can someone give me a sit-rep on what goes on?
what did the yen do?
Ring-a-Ring o'Rosies
A Pocket full of Posies
"A-tishoo! A-tishoo!"
The Yen fell down
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,425
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:37am Oct 31, 2011 2:37am
Quoting jeff_b
Bahahaha 100+ E/U pips in the bag. G/U 200 pips negative now to break even. Best lunch break I've had in a while. Thanks PT for the heads up on shorting E/U @ 1.4160. Cheers.
Congrats Jeff
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,426
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:45am Oct 31, 2011 2:45am
Seems like I slept all the fun But hey, it should recover a little so I can enter a short later during the day.

Certainly at least the raising trendline will provide some bounce to enter.
  • #6,427
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:48am Oct 31, 2011 2:48am
So guys, what do you make of the fact that she is dancing both sides of the magic 1.40 line?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,428
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:55am Oct 31, 2011 2:55am
Hmm, I hope she will wait for me, but data don't support it:

German Retail Sales m/m

0.4%
expected 1.1%
previous-2.7%http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif
  • #6,429
  • Oct 31, 2011 2:58am Oct 31, 2011 2:58am
Quoting AaronWard
So guys, what do you make of the fact that she is dancing both sides of the magic 1.40 line?
I haven't a clue. Long at the moment, in profit and thats all that matters for me. Having said that, one can never know enough in this game and I suspect that I would probably be the wiser for knowing, so I am all ears.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #6,430
  • Edited 5:43am Oct 31, 2011 3:01am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting Blobik
Still expect sideway trading on Monday... And cannot wait, that will happen on Nov 2nd. If we got poor ADP and strong "no" for QE (yes, this mix looks a bit... impossible?)
I think FOMC will have a very high impact on the markets, since it seems they kinda ignored Rompuys Press Conference on last wednesday (thursday).

It seems investors fear crisis so much they look away and FOMC is going to remind them once more.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,431
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:04am Oct 31, 2011 3:04am
Quoting AaronWard
So guys, what do you make of the fact that she is dancing both sides of the magic 1.40 line?
Very normal for price to dance around the 61.8 fibo after coming back from 78.6
IMO it means nothing. I need to see a drop and hold below 1.40 before I declare this anything more than a correction which was probably induced more so by the Yen intervention.
I think this move has given the USD bears a better entry.
We'll see

Anyway, I got myself a nice sleep and woke up to see all my trades in profit including two small U/J longs I had which were underwater all last week. Took profit on them this morning... Finally

U/J Long @ 76.243 Closed @ 79.001 for +275.8 pips
U/J Long @ 76.699 Closed @ 79.001 for +230.2 pips

Total = +506 pips (Thanks Yoda )

As for the E/U trade, I am holding it for now. My entry was 1.41601 so despite this little upwards retrace, I am still floating at +130 pips
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,432
  • Edited 3:29am Oct 31, 2011 3:12am | Edited 3:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
From "Things That Make You Go Hmmmm" by Grant Williams

Please take the time to download and read the attached PDF document.
It is a "must read" and will answer all your questions.
I´m on it, sir yes sir!


DIET: GZ to your pips man!

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,433
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:17am Oct 31, 2011 3:17am
Quoting traider
I haven't a clue. Long at the moment, in profit and thats all that matters for me. Having said that, one can never know enough in this game and I suspect that I would probably be the wiser for knowing, so I am all ears.
1.40 is pretty much the median line of the last 5 years. I was surprised at how easily it broke through on the way down. That means that support is pretty weak. Nothing conclusive yet, but if the daily closes on or below 1.40 I am probably going short. And if today closes down there, the daily chart will form a bear railroad tracks -- with Friday wedged in between.

As for today...I have been shorting at what looks like opportune moments for 20 pip scalps.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,434
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:18am Oct 31, 2011 3:18am
Collapsing Pattern H4 looks good so far
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #6,435
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:19am Oct 31, 2011 3:19am
Quoting bumapatria
hmm can i have a simple summary on boj style?
Summary? I will give it a try, thou it is much more complex subject.

One sentence:

Heavily proexporting economy, constantly selling yen, constantly in loss.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,436
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:24am Oct 31, 2011 3:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Anyway, I got myself a nice sleep and woke up to see all my trades in profit including two small U/J longs I had which were underwater all last week. Took profit on them this morning... Finally

U/J Long @ 76.243 Closed @ 79.001 for +275.8 pips
U/J Long @ 76.699 Closed @ 79.001 for +230.2 pips

Total = +506 pips (Thanks Yoda )

As for the E/U trade, I am holding it for now. My entry was 1.41601 so despite this little upwards retrace, I am still floating at +130 pips
I had some on similar level but they were killed by SL when USDJPY was falling Well, need to work on a good entry on EURUSD then. I agree that it should recover. Maybe even to a double top Or at least to nice lower high. And the "decisive strike" will or will not occur on Wednesday, rest of the week would be insignificant if not for Yoda. But still, it was plain intervention, not floor setting, this means, that right now shorting USDJPY may be profitable, unless Yoda decides to use chaingun instead of a shotgun, and keep intervening every night.
  • #6,437
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:31am Oct 31, 2011 3:31am
Quoting Blobik
I had some on similar level but they were killed by SL when USDJPY was falling Well, need to work on a good entry on EURUSD then. I agree that it should recover. Maybe even to a double top Or at least to nice lower high. And the "decisive strike" will or will not occur on Wednesday, rest of the week would be insignificant if not for Yoda. But still, it was plain intervention, not floor setting, this means, that right now shorting USDJPY may be profitable, unless Yoda decides to use chaingun instead of a shotgun, and keep intervening...
If the E/U breaks the fresh low it already made this morning, then I don't see any double tops today or tomorrow but rather a challenge of the H4 rising challenge and a possible break below that.

As for U/J, I am sure it will re-visit the low 76.xx area again at which point I might consider some fresh long positions. Not sure yet. Will cross that bridge when we come to it.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #6,438
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:40am Oct 31, 2011 3:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
If the E/U breaks the fresh low it already made this morning, then I don't see any double tops today or tomorrow but rather a challenge of the H4 rising challenge and a possible break below that.
In this case decision seems simple - sell on pullback to the trendline. I think this line failure should trigger bearishness. But still such a powerfull drop so quickly before Wednesday - I think many will hesitate fearing the QE horn
  • #6,439
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:42am Oct 31, 2011 3:42am
Dollar Bear outlook for today.

Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #6,440
  • Oct 31, 2011 3:57am Oct 31, 2011 3:57am
Quoting AaronWard
1.40 is pretty much the median line of the last 5 years. I was surprised at how easily it broke through on the way down. That means that support is pretty weak.
this thing is a freakin meatgrinder
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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