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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #6,401
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:01pm Oct 30, 2011 9:01pm
after checking the expectations... I think it's as easy as this: No longer good data is expected, so we should see strong profit taking, perhaps to 1.4000 (EURUSD) before tuesday, and from there ranging...
  • #6,402
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:04pm Oct 30, 2011 9:04pm
Nice yen spike. Was well signposted as well.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #6,403
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:05pm Oct 30, 2011 9:05pm
Quoting AaronWard
BOJ will intervene when they think the USD is reaching a bottom.
sounds plausible. only, they could be wrong. also, a CBanker's "bottom" and mine or yours might be 100's of pips apart...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,404
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:11pm Oct 30, 2011 9:11pm
Quoting The Fool
sounds plausible. only, they could be wrong. also, a CBanker's "bottom" and mine or yours might be 100's of pips apart...
Yup, thats why it is a theory.

Actually, a better theory is that the strength in the Yen was beginning to lose credibility and speculators in ever increasing numbers were long in the Yen. It was only a matter of time before it took a swan dive into the low seventies without an intervention.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,405
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:14pm Oct 30, 2011 9:14pm
Quoting traider
Nice yen spike. Was well signposted as well.
Hey traider, do you want to share your opinions on the control central banks can exercise over the currency markets?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,406
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:23pm Oct 30, 2011 9:23pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hey traider, do you want to share your opinions on the control central banks can exercise over the currency markets?
Hiya Aaron

Just the usual Jap CB export driven currency manipulation. With capitalism in the midst of an as yet unresolved bubble, there will be the temptation to race to the bottom in a bid preserve export advantage (the Euro will be next I suspect, IMHO). Having said that, I try not to prejudge issues and just trade with the candles. I use complex readings of candles and there were ample signals this was going to happen...down to the very support candle.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #6,407
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:26pm Oct 30, 2011 9:26pm
90 pips profit. can someone give me a sit-rep on what goes on?
what did the yen do?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,408
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:28pm Oct 30, 2011 9:28pm
Bahahaha 100+ E/U pips in the bag. G/U 200 pips negative now to break even. Best lunch break I've had in a while. Thanks PT for the heads up on shorting E/U @ 1.4160. Cheers.
  • #6,409
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:28pm Oct 30, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting traider
Hiya Aaron

Just the usual Jap CB export driven currency manipulation. With capitalism in the midst of an as yet unresolved bubble, there will be the temptation to race to the bottom in a bid preserve export advantage (the Euro will be next I suspect, IMHO). Having said that, I try not to prejudge issues and just trade with the candles. I use complex readings of candles and there were ample signals this was going to happen...down to the very support candle.
Hi Trader,

I have to think that the German exporters are not very happy with the new found faith in their currency union.

Any chance I could get you to post a chart? I have learned a lot from you conceptually so I am sure there is also a lot there technically if you feel comfortable sharing. But of course everybody has very different parameters about what they feel comfortable with.

Aaron
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,410
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:32pm Oct 30, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting bumapatria
90 pips profit. can someone give me a sit-rep on what goes on?
what did the yen do?
BOJ dumped a bucket full of yen on the market, driving the yen down. They do this from time to time to keep speculators scared (preventing attacks) and to keep stay competitive in the global market with a cheap yen.

When it comes to fundamentals, the single best place to spend you time is studying the what, why and how of central banks.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,411
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:49pm Oct 30, 2011 9:49pm
Quoting AaronWard
BOJ dumped a bucket full of yen on the market, driving the yen down. They do this from time to time to keep speculators scared (preventing attacks) and to keep stay competitive in the global market with a cheap yen.

When it comes to fundamentals, the single best place to spend you time is studying the what, why and how of central banks.
damn you guys are good!
hmm can i have a simple summary on boj style? i can get sort of feel to ecb and fed, but boj is something else....

well i saw busted demand cycle and technically it was very posible. with lowest risk.

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,412
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:54pm Oct 30, 2011 9:54pm
Booked 1/2 position each E$ +101 pips Kiwi$ +97 pips and left the other half of each position to run w/ stops @ BE+3..... Best position you can be in is a FREE trade. No risk. Let her rip.


Fading $J now with basis of 78.94
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #6,413
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:00pm Oct 30, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hi Trader,

I have to think that the German exporters are not very happy with the new found faith in their currency union.

Any chance I could get you to post a chart? I have learned a lot from you conceptually so I am sure there is also a lot there technically if you feel comfortable sharing. But of course everybody has very different parameters about what they feel comfortable with.

Aaron
My style is a little too discretionary to teach Aaron. It can be downright dangerous. This much I will say. Get to grips with support and resistance and then watch how the market behaves at these levels. There is the expectation that every candle is capable of speaking to you. Sometimes a candle will be indifferent, at others, it will speak of a determination to go in one direction or another. Mney management then slots in nicely as you should at that point be in a position to determine exactly what your risk is to the pip and whether the trade is worth the outlay. I use stop losses as a defence against the unexpected geo-political event such as war.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #6,414
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:23pm Oct 30, 2011 10:23pm
Traider,

Thanks. I'll put forward what I am doing to see if I have missed any of the key elements.

My conclusions that the single most important element is PA at support and resistance. This will help you determine direction. Once you have that then entry becomes all important. The two key styles are aggressive and conservative. Aggressive takes the signal, conservative takes the confirmation signal.

Then it becomes an issue of exit. This seems more complex and is as much an issue of money management as anything. I have been using different targets, but S/R and trendlines seem to work well.

The other key issues are time frames and trend/range. Higher time frames trump lower timeframes while trend/range for me is still more guesswork than anything. These days it seems gauging volatility is more important than picking the trend correctly.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,415
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:26pm Oct 30, 2011 10:26pm
Quoting bumapatria
damn you guys are good!
hmm can i have a simple summary on boj style? i can get sort of feel to ecb and fed, but boj is something else....

well i saw busted demand cycle and technically it was very posible. with lowest risk.

Buma

BOJ is Big mouth + ninja. They bluster and boast for months at a time and then they do a sneak attack at about 10-11 AM their time. This ensures that all the European and US speculators get roasted alive as they are in bed.

SNB is a straight shooter. They try to give clarity to the markets and they do what they say. And if you want to read any central bank reports, the SNB reports are the best.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,416
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:53pm Oct 30, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting AaronWard
Traider,

Thanks. I'll put forward what I am doing to see if I have missed any of the key elements.

My conclusions that the single most important element is PA at support and resistance. This will help you determine direction. Once you have that then entry becomes all important. The two key styles are aggressive and conservative. Aggressive takes the signal, conservative takes the confirmation signal.

Then it becomes an issue of exit. This seems more complex and is as much an issue of money management as anything. I have been using different...
It's less of it being a confirmation signal for me, and more one of where I look to see how the market is relating to an earlier expression of direction. This for me is usually where the fighting takes place. I trade 5 and 15 minutes as I also tend to find them, for me anyways, a lot more direct in terms of market agitation. Whether volatile or trending, the market tends to convulse at these inflexion points...although during times of trending, less so with the bonus being candles that tend to be clearly one or the other.

I follow a reverse logic for exits, depending on how long I intend to stay in.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #6,417
  • Oct 30, 2011 10:55pm Oct 30, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting AaronWard
Buma

BOJ is Big mouth + ninja. They bluster and boast for months at a time and then they do a sneak attack at about 10-11 AM their time. This ensures that all the European and US speculators get roasted alive as they are in bed.

SNB is a straight shooter. They try to give clarity to the markets and they do what they say. And if you want to read any central bank reports, the SNB reports are the best.
thank you so much that is why i dont trade yen pairs. get blown like hell if i am wrong.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #6,418
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:02pm Oct 30, 2011 11:02pm
So gang, watching the EURUSD pass the 50.0 fib, where do you guys see this thing landing.

Love the "buy the rumor, sell the news"

I am seeing next support at 1.397

What about you all?
  • #6,419
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:13pm Oct 30, 2011 11:13pm
Quoting bumapatria
thank you so much that is why i dont trade yen pairs. get blown like hell if i am wrong.
Seriously Buma, if you want to understand the forces driving the market and the economy probably the single best thing you can do is read a few of the central bank reports. I am sure there will be a lot you don't understand, but you can always ask. And you will find that what you learn will give you a first rate grounding in practical economics.

FA works in two time frames. One is the news bump. I hate it as it seems more like a crapshoot than anything. But I use the reaction to judge the market as oversold or undersold. This works as well (or better than) any indicator I know.

The second time frame is the weekly or the monthly. When you pull out the weekly or the monthly charts you will typically see a very clear trend. This is driven by fundamentals.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #6,420
  • Oct 30, 2011 11:18pm Oct 30, 2011 11:18pm
I killed my small $J short -26 pips. Acting like they are putting in a floor @ 79.20 and it ain't budging yet.

second half of E$ and Kiwi$ doing very nicely so far

They harp most on $yen as their biggest thorn so I switched to short small position EurJPY which is starting to drift south with $J not moving at all.

Entry 111.05
SL 111.64
Target 107.30
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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