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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,621
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:57am Oct 27, 2011 6:57am
Quoting SIgurs
Assume that your comment was meant as a joke, right ?

Japan lost massive amounts of money during previous interventions. Each and every time interventions were sold within the next few days.

Latest measures are more focussed on helping companies struck by Jpy appreciation and monetary easing as they know very well that Forex intervention doesn't work.

Why would they throw good money after bad ?
Are you suggesting to go short on the pair then?
Unlike CHF, BoJ has BALLZ when it comes to intervention
  • #28,622
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:59am Oct 27, 2011 6:59am
Quoting FXMindset
Wont be a problem as long you trade with reasonable MM,Unless u bet big with expect BOJ intervention then would be dangerous
yup i knew that was not a good pivot point, made mistake,,,,,,,
but i just entered to take 20-30 pips.
"Sensible Trader"
  • #28,623
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:02am Oct 27, 2011 7:02am
Quoting SIgurs
Assume that your comment was meant as a joke, right ?

Japan lost massive amounts of money during previous interventions. Each and every time interventions were sold within the next few days.

Latest measures are more focussed on helping companies struck by Jpy appreciation and monetary easing as they know very well that Forex intervention doesn't work.

Why would they throw good money after bad ? Also bear in mind that Boj/Mof lost tons of credibility due to poor communication, so yeah, I believe that markets would keep on shorting any bounce...
Buddy! the below link well explains why BOJ needs to intervene...

http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...ervention.html
  • #28,624
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:03am Oct 27, 2011 7:03am
i personally think that BoJ will do an intervention when it's least expected.
they might do an intervention when the dollar is bulling, hence doubling the effect.
  • #28,625
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:05am Oct 27, 2011 7:05am
Asia central banks wont intervene... all are pointing to europe's horrible situation...

On your mark get set go.... make a new low !!
  • #28,626
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:08am Oct 27, 2011 7:08am
Quoting lambergino
Are you suggesting to go short on the pair then?
Unlike CHF, BoJ has BALLZ when it comes to intervention
I've been shorting bounces and have been bearish this pair for months, just go back in the archive, and will continue to do so. Why ?

- massive downtrend dating back years
- Boj has lost quite some credibility recently
- imo, markets feel confident that, in the event of an (however unlikely) intervention shorts will push it down again
- Boj recent moves are more into monetary easing and helping companies in trouble due to strong Yen
- Yen is the only big safe haven left as the Swissies played the game more intelligently and quickly
- shouting and screaming for months that Yen is too strong without taking bold measures isn't quite confident building when wanting to depreciate the currency

I'am still short and will short into the (highly unlikely) spike due to Forex intervention as history has shown that such spikes are sold within days. This is a cash cow par excellence !

Just my 2 cents !
  • #28,627
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:09am Oct 27, 2011 7:09am
Obviously non of us know if a yen-tervention is coming or not...
From past experiences, we know a intervention at these levels are VERY LIKELY.
You can keep your short all you want but this thing is WAY too low... you want to short the Dollar without the possibility of loosing your pants and shirt? Go short the USD CAD ... or buy Eur USD... because shorting USD/JPY at these levels is asking for trouble... however lonnging it with possibility of intervention and/or bulls comings in is a better risk/reward ratio IMO

what you guys think bout that??
  • #28,628
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:24am Oct 27, 2011 7:24am
New all time low !! 75.66
  • #28,629
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:28am Oct 27, 2011 7:28am
Quoting ultra_knight
New all time low !! 75.66
I know!! its hysterical
My USD/CAD short hedge made me pips
  • #28,630
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:29am Oct 27, 2011 7:29am
Quoting lambergino
Obviously non of us know if a yen-tervention is coming or not...
From past experiences, we know a intervention at these levels are VERY LIKELY.
You can keep your short all you want but this thing is WAY too low... you want to short the Dollar without the possibility of loosing your pants and shirt? Go short the USD CAD ... or buy Eur USD... because shorting USD/JPY at these levels is asking for trouble... however lonnging it with possibility of intervention and/or bulls comings in is a better risk/reward ratio IMO

what you guys think bout that??...
If you truly believe Japan will intervene, why not short the 200 to 300 pip bounce ? Looks to me like a much safer trade if you have a small account. Why go countertrend, why try to catch a falling knife, why try to pick THE bottom ? Remember, the trend is your friend. Always has been and always will.

Take a look at the chart and see for yourself !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #28,631
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:29am Oct 27, 2011 7:29am
new lows again and again
  • #28,632
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:34am Oct 27, 2011 7:34am
it seemss it target 75
  • #28,633
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:36am Oct 27, 2011 7:36am
Quoting SIgurs
If you truly believe Japan will intervene, why not short the 200 to 300 pip bounce ? Looks to me like a much safer trade if you have a small account. Why go countertrend, why try to catch a falling knife, why try to pick THE bottom ? Remember, the trend is your friend. Always has been and always will.

Take a look at the chart and see for yourself !
You'r right in that I could wait for intervention and short the bounce, thats a really good strategy. However currently I dont like going short as I may blow up my account if that "200-300 bounce" comes to the upside and Im short...
  • #28,634
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:38am Oct 27, 2011 7:38am
Got to go to a meeting, but i'll make sure i'am back at 9pm NY time. Want to share a unique experience with Beljevina ... Japanese intervention !

Why do i get the feeling that i'll be staying up all night for nothing ? lol
  • #28,635
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:40am Oct 27, 2011 7:40am
Quoting lambergino
I know!! its hysterical
My USD/CAD short hedge made me pips
I know you were long on UJ...

Don't blow your account.. stay away ...

Better luck next time
  • #28,636
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:41am Oct 27, 2011 7:41am
LOL most likely going to stay up all night too...
where you putting in TP in case of a intervention?
  • #28,637
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:43am Oct 27, 2011 7:43am
Quoting ultra_knight
I know you were long on UJ...

Don't blow your account.. stay away ...

Better luck next time
no worries, I always hedge when I trade the yen as its such a pain in the ass
  • #28,638
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:47am Oct 27, 2011 7:47am
Quoting lambergino
no worries, I always hedge when I trade the yen as its such a pain in the ass
good

No BOJ intervention, stop cribbing about it... they already told today they just increased stimulus thatz it...
  • #28,639
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:49am Oct 27, 2011 7:49am
Quoting SIgurs
Got to go to a meeting, but i'll make sure i'am back at 9pm NY time. Want to share a unique experience with Beljevina ... Japanese intervention !

Why do i get the feeling that i'll be staying up all night for nothing ? lol
Last one before I go. Imo, these few lines sum it up quite nicely as to why I don't believe Forex intervention is a good idea and why it would be sold in no time. All imo !

-----
Analysts said the yen's gains indicated that funds handling speculative money believe the government will not be able to halt the yen's rise.
The government and the central bank staged massive interventions in August to keep the yen from appreciating, but those operations failed to deliver the intended results. One of the problems Japan faces in trying to intervene in the markets alone is the sheer size of yen-dollar trade, worth tens of trillions of yen.
It makes it almost impossible for a single government to reverse a trend in the market. Also, Japan is finding it hard to get the cooperation of the U.S. Federal Reserve because the United States is seeking to shore up its depressed economy by generating more export revenues with a weaker dollar.
  • #28,640
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:54am Oct 27, 2011 7:54am
Buy Limit @ 76.63 SL @ 76.43 - Risk 0,5% - Tp: Open
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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