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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #5,701
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:27am Oct 27, 2011 4:27am
Quoting jcminvest
I really hope this thing hold for a nice short on us open.
It is totally against my rules, but I am considering some microshort here as well. Yesterdays NY open seemed to show what do they think of those "comprehensive solutions".

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,702
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:29am Oct 27, 2011 4:29am
despite everyones shorting on euro, i am a gold bull for now, i have several buys and all my short hedges to minimize loss are complete. to me there is absolutely no reason to short it now. to me . there is no significant change in volume, it just bounced off the circular trendline, and a short around that spike earlier today wouldve been the best short. right now, i dont see it as low risk. maybe putting stop orders at the news' release would be smart
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,703
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:30am Oct 27, 2011 4:30am
rigth: 1H chart, red candle showing kind of top, and remembering price is on the 61,2 fibo area (1,45-1,3150 down move)
left: 5min chart, once I see the top (doji, in this case) I wait for a swing that reaches the 61,2-76,40 fibo and enter with a stop over the high. Target: depend on the day, but sma50 and daily pivot R1 were so close so I have waited and close the trade with 2 orders.
hope this helps someone

saludos!!
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  • #5,704
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:30am Oct 27, 2011 4:30am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
It is totally against my rules, but I am considering some microshort here as well. Yesterdays NY open seemed to show what do they think of those "comprehensive solutions".

T
Im going more off of what my chart says in thatI need a confirmed bear candle which would deploy some momentum for us open and also I agree that us open seems to like to call the euro bluff. we'll see how this 4hr candle sits.
Lets do this...
  • #5,705
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:38am Oct 27, 2011 4:38am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting bumapatria
despite everyones shorting on euro, i am a gold bull for now, i have several buys and all my short hedges to minimize loss are complete. to me there is absolutely no reason to short it now. to me . there is no significant change in volume, it just bounced off the circular trendline, and a short around that spike earlier today wouldve been the best short. right now, i dont see it as low risk. maybe putting stop orders at the news' release would be smart
Looks like batman is entering to the market
  • #5,706
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:38am Oct 27, 2011 4:38am
Quoting bumapatria
despite everyones shorting on...
Angry Batman pattern is one of the most reliable ones.

Edit:AFX, running same way again
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,707
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:43am Oct 27, 2011 4:43am
I am thinking about 1.406, monthly pivot R1.

In fact, between 1.40 and 1.41 lay many resistances - MA, Pivot R1, fibs. If they only lined up a little bit, then it would become unbreakable, as every bear would place sell limit in almost the same place. But they have some distances between, 1-2 pips, so the limits are not dense enough. I only hope, that there are no SLs in this area, as SLs would neutralize sell limits standing higher. And the most important thing to consider, retail traders don't have so much capital to move the market too far, big boys ideas are important too.

ADD: Half of the day (at least mine ) behind us, and right now the market went up. If US brings us back down, bears should activate. But hesitation or further up will look like a bullish sign - "We are sitting at a resistance and the bears can't bring the price down!".
  • #5,708
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:44am Oct 27, 2011 4:44am
Quoting bumapatria
despite everyones shorting on euro, i am a gold bull for now, i have several buys and all my short hedges to minimize loss are complete. to me there is absolutely no reason to short it now. to me . there is no significant change in volume, it just bounced off the circular trendline, and a short around that spike earlier today wouldve been the best short. right now, i dont see it as low risk. maybe putting stop orders at the news' release would be smart
Im short gold from 1720+ w tp 1696.
and have been scalping w short euro, enough.
just turned to long euro from 3995... we'll see..
tight stopsss
  • #5,709
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:45am Oct 27, 2011 4:45am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Angry Batman pattern is one of the most reliable ones.

Edit:AFX, running same way again
HAHHAHAH SCRW U I CHOKED ON MY NOODLES hAHHAHH
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,710
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:48am Oct 27, 2011 4:48am
Sell limit 1.4065 SL 1.4085 Risk 0,5% Tp : Open
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #5,711
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:52am Oct 27, 2011 4:52am
Went flat last night on everything.
A default is not a default anymore.

Will wait as two things got violated on the daily
10/14 and 10/17 twin reversal bars also at an resistance on my volatility chart. Agressive Bear would short here as this was a resumption of the downtrend

The attempt to form a double top the past two days was broken on the announcement

Euro bulls are in control of this pair.
Whatever is causing this there are more USD's available then Euros
Most likely Benny and company are flooding the world with USD liquidity again.

May trade short term on hourly volatility once market settles down. Longer term trade requires some kind of topping pattern to show on the 8 hour bar demonstrating a change in the USD Index
That would be evidence that the daily chart is on the verge of a turn.

The USD is weak and there is no reason to go long usd until a decent setup exhibits.

Will not chase this market after this much Euro move has occurred.
  • #5,712
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:54am Oct 27, 2011 4:54am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting foto
Went flat last night on everything.
A default is not a default anymore.

Will wait as two things got violated on the daily
10/14 and 10/17 twin reversal bars also at an resistance on my volatility chart. Agressive Bear would short here as this was a resumption of the downtrend

The attempt to form a double top the past two days was broken on the announcement

Euro bulls are in control of this pair.
Whatever is causing this there are more USD's available then Euros
Most likely Benny and company are flooding the world with USD liquidity again....

It apperas that 1.40100 S/R level is holding quite nice and USD downfall has cut a little. I'd see there is still some bearish movement coming today.

ADD: And afternoon we can expect little rain.
  • #5,713
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:02am Oct 27, 2011 5:02am
You have a point, foto. I went flat when I closed my shorts. As I mentioned, the threats are right now the flooding with USD and the fact, that the zone as a whole is strong, cause many technical point a possible reversal downward there, but each level that may cause a reversal i on slightly different level. Therefore we do not get spiking rejections there. +, i will need to go offline soon, and trading with a time limit usually has poor performance.

I need to manage not to doom my account totally through one full year, If I achieve that trading all the time, then I might learn enough by experience to get my money back.

Right now I send it on a long yourney... to some Asians, perhaps, as they dump USD a lot. Hope that they will return it with a nice yield someday
  • #5,714
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:03am Oct 27, 2011 5:03am
Quoting foto
The USD is weak and there is no reason to go long usd until a decent setup exhibits.
I would say: EURUSD is weak, but there is no reason to go short until a decent setup exhibits.

I am waiting for this decent setup for 14 days. Could make some cash if I wasnt convinced of Eurodoom. But I dont mind, I like studying charts, chatting about fundamentals, and waiting. As a poker player, I know it is good to wait for the best cards. Money will come, sooner or later. Maybe today in mid of NY I will see my sign, maybe tomorrow, but that moment is closer every hour.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,715
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:15am Oct 27, 2011 5:15am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
...that moment is closer every hour.
Getting closer, closer ... I can even smell it... no it's my socks.
  • #5,716
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:16am Oct 27, 2011 5:16am
time to sleep for the old cowboy

positions SL TP are as below. stops are trailing.

good luck y'all!
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  • #5,717
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:18am Oct 27, 2011 5:18am
@foto, and Tom

yup i believe same thing. there is no logical reason to sell now for that massive sell order yet from everyone in the world.

not being amateur bt 4100, is my BET.
dont go calling me amateur and all.

im flat on euro.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,718
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:30am Oct 27, 2011 5:30am
Hi, I know that you'll laugh. But after I recorded 70% of their profits, I'm away on business. The result was this.
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  • #5,719
  • Edited 5:50am Oct 27, 2011 5:33am | Edited 5:50am
Yes the 1.4000 through 1.4100 level is now what should be a major resistance level.
But anyone wanting to short can pull their order and wait for a higher level.

For me I need PA to confirm that S/R is holding. Technicaly I look for two things to place a trade. One is some price level where Bulls and Bears fight it out.
That becomes a market decision level.
Second is that PA demonstrates who is winning the fight and has the upper hand.

As I believe that fundamentals do matter as CB policy and general economic conditions set the environment I do like a macro view that coincides with the Technical.

The macro on the Euro has not changed. All we have is spendthrift Politicians digging a deeper hole. As for European Sovereign debt, the old saying still holds true. "I gave at the office" The bond market participants are not in it for charity.
There will be repercussions.

edit: I appoligize for not posting charts. I really am technicaly challenged.
Am lucky to be able to turn a computer on and do not understand the damm things.
  • #5,720
  • Oct 27, 2011 5:42am Oct 27, 2011 5:42am
Okay I'm back. Well rested, showered, had breakfast and I'm ready for the US econ data.
Now we see what USD is made of.
Will the almighty buck come back to life?
If it does, we shall see a Euro slide.
If not, then we're stuck in this range for a while (until the market smells the skunk)

I currently see lots of resistance between 1.4010/20 and it's holding well so far. If it manages to break through on the up side then we will be targeting 1.4060/1.4100
If it manages to break through and do a daily close above 1.41, then I would say the market has gone mad and I will quit trading until I can make sense of it.
I know we are not in normal times, but sometimes you just gotta shake your head.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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