EurAnalysis

I'm sure that PT will come back to you on this. My take is that the Euro is a composite currency. So if you add the value of the Drachma and the Mark together and then divide by two... you get a currency which is either a cheap Mark or an expensive Drachma. Cheap Mark = really good for German exports. Expensive Drachma= really bad for Greek exports.

In a very real way, the Greeks (and other club med) have been subsidizing the German economy.

i just done from studies, and looked at where PAs floating around now. 4000. it has so much potential to clear this with confidece judging the way she's dancing right now

I believe PT is still sleeping and dreaming for Eurilocks and three Bears...

its a modified version too. she did not escape from the bears. she was their dinner

USD Break Into Weakness

That's not a dream - it is nighmare. I believe that he's sharing a bull with all bears and making lots of eurilocks.

closed euro @ 85 w 90 pips,
and shorted a little bit, SL @ 4005.

I set SL @ 4020 for my Shorty.
C'mon Jogy-boy, please me!

Yea, thats what I concluded too. But since Germany put 200 Bn in EFSF, incomes and outcomes are highly discutable.

T.

Okay, I killed the shorts, even the loosing one @1.395. Preferred to admit that it was a poor entry, than to take a beating in case of some shooting up. Still managed to get exit gracefull enough, so that it didn't destroy all the profits; In fact the previous profitable short from 1.395 made more profit when triggered by spike, than this one lost, LOL. Will try to make some entry in 3-4 hours from now, when I get some Internet, as now I am leaving to work. Maybe she will get higher and show weakness so I will be able to short her from there Or breaks levels decisively, so I would consider a long Who knows. Trade safe, and maybe she will already decide to falll...

No sell limits in plan right now. She makes higher highs, who knows what she is up to... If she keeps doing that, I will turn to longs, event though I don't see her bullish, but techicals say she is going up. Hard to believe for me, but perhaps the ever-dumping of USDs is to blame.

Add: 20+ pip rejection at 1.41. Not too bad, but yet not good enough to me. Maybe nextr try will be better

Upcoming important news:
US Advance GDP q/q 2.4%e 1.3%p Bullish US Pending Home Sales m/m 0.2%e -1.2%p Bullish
Recent news:
“China has agreed to invest in Europe's bailout fund” Bullish
Bank of Japan decided to increase the total size of the Asset Purchase Program by about 5 trillion yen. Bullish

EU summit:
Haircut:
A European Union official says the currency union's leaders have reached a deal with banks to take losses of 50 percent of their Greek bonds in a key move to solve the euro zone’s debt crisis. The official was speaking early Thursday morning on condition of anonymity pending an official statement. A second official confirmed that there was a voluntary deal.
Greece's current debt is approx €355 Billion which is approx 170% of GDP
50% haircut means that the debt falls to approx €178 Billion (85% of GDP)
Recap:
However, Greece may have to recap its own banks.
The Greek financial sector holds 18% (€64 Billion) of Greek debt
Now add that back to the remaining Greek debt
€178 Blln + €64 Blln = €242 Billion = 116% of GDP
Secondary Bonds buying:
The fund has €440 Billion in it. No matter how you slice it or lever it, that's all it is. About €200 Billion is already committed for other purposes (ECB bond buying etc) Therefore a 5:1 lever produces €1.2 Trillion.
Short-term sentiment: Bullish
I’ll be honest… I want to see a dip. Maybe because of the buy on rumor, sell on fact event. But it would give safer entries… After trading for about 1 year, I learnt that you can not involve your feelings or “what you’d like to happen” with facts. So… I’ll wait for it, set an EA which settings have been properly created to do that, and go to sleep… In case it jumped in any trade, I’ll close it before the US data comes out.
Mid-term sentiment:
I want to wait until the 1st week of the November before jumping in any mid-term sentiment trade… but as long as all I understand the context of the current market, there’s no immediate coming crash without a reason (so, yeap, currently bullish). I’d better wait for it.
Long-term sentiment:
Bearish
Long-term… the Euro is a project that has already failed… the only problem is that many people have not noticed yet.

Pbh

Sources: PipTrapper, FF, my mind

German benefits are already in the bank...and need to be seen as a percentage of GDP and accounted for over 10 years. I have seen numbers such as over a trillion Euro's.

Also it is hard to put into exact numbers the difference between 6% unemployment and 25% unemployment.

If this day closes above 1,398, I will consider Tom Zone Grade 1 B correction broken. That would suggest we are experiencing Grade 3 correction, That could lead us to 1,415 in exponential wave, which will be final destination. I still see that as unlikely. Now even more than yesterday, since market already showed what he thinks of EU right after NY open.

I know you dont know what I am talking about but I am having fun and hope you will get used to it.

T.

1.4060-1.407 Daily High

China did what? Now way.

Well, if this rumour is true:

Good luck China.

EDIT: Ah I see: 13hrs old ForexTalking rumour. Nono, that is not going to happen.

This is a great thread, thanks PipTrapper

i would be cautious now. there are no bears sellign it right now, i only see buying. price action says to me that she is wiling to get higher. read pedro's analysis on the upcoming news, it backs it up. if 4000 brings nothing 4100 will. or 4050. or 4025 or whatever. to me it looks bullish, and shorting now for me is not probably the lowest-possible risk short. 36 hours till next significant 4 hour cycle. that would mean friday... short term cycle is in 23.45 hours, in 1 day. friday for me will be the intersting day.

.

Daily high could be around 1.4065

4035. london is open, where is all the "supply"? where are the euro sales?
it goes so easily, damn.. turn baby turn