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Trading Made Simple

  • #12,981
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:57pm Oct 26, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting smatthew
Just wondering.
At 16:00 today high impact USD news was scheduled:

16:00 USD
New Home Sales
313K 302K 296K

Did you act on the news, TDI cross or both?
hi my buddy.

i trade only tdi cross.

good luck
  • #12,982
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:10pm Oct 26, 2011 11:10pm
EU-H4 Long at 1.3962

Right..?
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  • #12,983
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:58pm Oct 26, 2011 11:58pm
Quoting FXBackTest
I have been following this thread for a while and I have done some pretty thorough back testing on this strategy over the last few months and here are some results.

Using 36 months of data and 1 hour time frame, this is a list of variations I tested:

 

  1. Restricting trading to NON US hours
  2. Checking how far from the 0 or 100 the TDI was cross over was
  3. Checking the angle of the green line
  4. Restricting entering based on candle size and shape.
  5. Trailing stops and stop losses.


Other parameters:
[list][*]Trading...

I have traded it enough to know if you only had a 50 percent winning average your doing it wrong
  • #12,984
  • Oct 27, 2011 1:03am Oct 27, 2011 1:03am
Quoting kingclarence
I have traded it enough to know if you only had a 50 percent winning average your doing it wrong
Sure, I have results that are up to 80% accurate but have a very low occurrence and therefore aren't as profitable. The most profitable result is only 51% accurate from my back testing.

How long have you been trading it? 1 year? 3 years? I'm not trying to bring anyone down in this thread, I truly want to understand what other factors people are taking into account when making their decisions regarding this strategy.

Can I ask you then what you are basing your decision to enter a trade on? Purely a TDI cross as mentioned was defined toward the start of this thread?
  • #12,985
  • Oct 27, 2011 1:36am Oct 27, 2011 1:36am
Quoting FXBackTest
Sure, I have results that are up to 80% accurate but have a very low occurrence and therefore aren't as profitable. The most profitable result is only 51% accurate from my back testing.

How long have you been trading it? 1 year? 3 years? I'm not trying to bring anyone down in this thread, I truly want to understand what other factors people are taking into account when making their decisions regarding this strategy.

Can I ask you then what you are basing your decision to enter a trade on? Purely a TDI cross as mentioned was defined toward...
From my understanding and reading the thread you have to take way more into account than just a tdi cross.Most of it is basic forex stuff.I have only been trading forex for maybe three months so i have a lot to learn but when i follow the rules i get more like 75% win rate.

My biggest issues now are not overtrading and letting my profits run.Most of the time when i lose now its because of me jumping out of a trade too early or taking one i knew i shouldnt have messed with.Also moving my stop loss.

Its cool though because i think im making good progress for only 3 months or so.I think when it comes to TMS i know what to do i just gotta execute better.
  • #12,986
  • Oct 27, 2011 2:08am Oct 27, 2011 2:08am
Quoting FXBackTest
[*]Restricting trading to NON US hours
Hey ... just wondering if there is any reason why you chose NON US hours ...

To me this would mean you were trading H1 during the Asian sessions, which most people have advised can be a bloodbath with TMS ...

From what I've seen, the most successful people trade the London session (which by it's nature includes approx 3 hours of New York) ...
1 pip at a time ... if the entries are strong, the rest will follow ...
  • #12,987
  • Oct 27, 2011 2:19am Oct 27, 2011 2:19am
Quoting antantnz
From what I've seen, the most successful people trade the London session (which by it's nature includes approx 3 hours of New York) ...

imho does TMS only trade the first two candles of London- and NY-session.
  • #12,988
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:02am Oct 27, 2011 3:02am
Quoting MikeNYC
Hi,

I am unable to save the file as .lua. Is there anything else I have to install or download before I can use that format? I have never seen that before.

Thanks.
hey, Mike just download as they are, then select and rename ( F2) change the extension only from .txt to .lua
  • #12,989
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:18am Oct 27, 2011 3:18am
Quoting FXBackTest
Sure, I have results that are up to 80% accurate but have a very low occurrence ...

Can I ask you then what you are basing your decision to enter a trade on? Purely a TDI cross as mentioned was defined toward the start of this thread?
I for one, do thank you for taking the time to backtest, but I'm afraid it is not wholly representative for this method, as there definitely is an important discretionary component that you will only perfect as you get enough experience. Clarence makes mention of some of these factors involved.
You will get much more out of TMS forward testing on demo.
I have some experience and can assure you this is a viable system once you get some screen time, which by the way you cannot avoid or replace with any amount of hypothetical testing if you expect to advance as a trader.
Good trades!
  • #12,990
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:39am Oct 27, 2011 3:39am
Quoting Jason Rogers
Hi Geosanuy,

FXCM has TDI available as a custom indicator on fxcodebase.com.

I attached the TDI indicator (TradersDynamicIndex.txt) and a TDI indicator analyzer (AnalyzeTradersDynamicIndex.txt) that can be used with the Marketscope Charts from FXCM's Trading Station
Please let me know if this helps or if you have questions!
Thanks! works a charm!
Might add it's Malone's original slightly different than version used here, might want to check out compassfx to learn how he applies it.
  • #12,991
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:50am Oct 27, 2011 3:50am
Quoting geosanuy
I for one, do thank you for taking the time to backtest, but I'm afraid it is not wholly representative for this method, as there definitely is an important discretionary component that you will only perfect as you get enough experience. Clarence makes mention of some of these factors involved.
You will get much more out of TMS forward testing on demo.
I have some experience and can assure you this is a viable system once you get some screen time, which by the way you cannot avoid or replace with any amount of hypothetical testing if you expect...
Agreed. Its madness to just blindly follow the TDI alone. Additional analysis of all FX aspects apply: trend, news, support and resistance, candle formation, size and strength etc etc

BIgE has said this ad infinitum
  • #12,992
  • Oct 27, 2011 4:53am Oct 27, 2011 4:53am
Quoting antantnz
Hey ... just wondering if there is any reason why you chose NON US hours ...

To me this would mean you were trading H1 during the Asian sessions, which most people have advised can be a bloodbath with TMS ...

From what I've seen, the most successful people trade the London session (which by it's nature includes approx 3 hours of New York) ...
Hi Antantnz, the reason for using non US hours was because of what eelfranz said toward the start of this thread, about not trading the US hours. Note that that was just a permutation, I tested both with and without that exclusion.

Quoting kingclarence
From my understanding and reading the thread you have to take way more into account than just a tdi cross.Most of it is basic forex stuff.I have only been trading forex for maybe three months so i have a lot to learn but when i follow the rules i get more like 75% win rate.
...
Quoting geosanuy
I for one, do thank you for taking the time to backtest, but I'm afraid it is not wholly representative for this method, as there definitely is an important discretionary component that you will only perfect as you get enough experience. Clarence makes mention of some of these factors involved.
You will get much more out of TMS forward testing on demo.
I have some experience and can assure you this is a viable system once you get some screen time, which by the way you cannot avoid or replace with any amount of hypothetical testing if you expect...
Completely agree with both of you guys and I did trade this on a demo for 2 months before I started back testing. I like the simplicity of the strategy and the fact that many people seem to have a lot of success on it.

Demo trading is where I got quite of few of my ideas for different permutation of the back testing, ie time zone trading, candle size, momentum, pivot points, of which were all part of my back testing.

I'm still just trying to see what the successful traders take into account, since at the end of the day you have whatever information is presented to you at the point in time you enter a trade. The good traders, either subconsciously or consciously will be taking into account a bunch of factors and saying yes to what they see as good trades.

If anything the back testing I have done on this strategy gives me comfort know that even with a very simple method of trading, it is still profitable in the long run.
  • #12,993
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:03am Oct 27, 2011 7:03am
GJ-H4 Short at 121.28 TP just +28

Any comments...?
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  • #12,994
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:37am Oct 27, 2011 7:37am
Update from chart posted 3 weeks ago, 500 pips and still going (no, I'm not in since then, but have taken a lot of other short trades, all positive)
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OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
  • #12,995
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:07am Oct 27, 2011 8:07am
100 pips odd last couple of hours on EU/US, A/U A/JPY.

Getting the wheelbarrow out to go to the bank.

Follow the rules. 80% win rate if you acknowledge price action as a strategy.

Thankyou.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #12,996
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:13am Oct 27, 2011 8:13am
Quoting Britpip7
Hi piprac,

I have the same issue with IBFX timings on the H4 and Day.

I do look at the set-ups at the new candle at 4pm and sometimes there is enough price action for an entry. Mostly though I am looking at the next candle at 8pm / 9pm Pacific - depending on Daylight savings!

The day still works though, so once you get a move, the TDI will confirm - I do wait until I have enough PA for it to move past the previous candle or a fractal break (not TMS strategy)
Thanks for the reply, I like your idea of waiting for a PA move past the previous candle or fractal -that is a big help. Thanks again, p.
  • #12,997
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:26am Oct 27, 2011 8:26am
An observation.

I'm finding screen time, and just doing, is king. Getting a 'feel' for the market. Interesting stuff, and i'm also finding i know less and less every day about it. I would say at least a couple of years study and practice before yer average punter gets consistently profitable. I'm about 8 months ish in, and maybe a little bit wiser. Then again, i am a bit slow, but feel i'm learning something everytime i 'pull the trigger'.

Good trading to you.
'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #12,998
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:45am Oct 27, 2011 8:45am
Quoting Guitarbloke
An observation.

I'm finding screen time, and just doing, is king. Getting a 'feel' for the market. Interesting stuff, and i'm also finding i know less and less every day about it. I would say at least a couple of years study and practice before yer average punter gets consistently profitable. I'm about 8 months ish in, and maybe a little bit wiser. Then again, i am a bit slow, but feel i'm learning something everytime i 'pull the trigger'.

Good trading to you.
!true
  • #12,999
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:51am Oct 27, 2011 8:51am
Quoting Callisto
Update from chart posted 3 weeks ago, 500 pips and still going (no, I'm not in since then, but have taken a lot of other short trades, all positive)
Callisto, may I ask if you could share your chart tool of MM which looks like a fibo?
Thanks in advance
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #13,000
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:53am Oct 27, 2011 8:53am
Quoting Callisto
Update from chart posted 3 weeks ago, 500 pips and still going (no, I'm not in since then, but have taken a lot of other short trades, all positive)
Callisto, congratulations. nice trade. What percent do you close at each level (BE, TP1, TP2, TP3)? Thanks.
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