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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #5,641
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:51pm Oct 26, 2011 9:51pm
Quoting Classic5000
I think its a gamble.. But might be worth taking.
I think I'll skip it and just go to bed instead.
  • #5,642
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:51pm Oct 26, 2011 9:51pm
I'd say that EURUSD faded a bit when the conference started, and didn't recover after he end. I think the info that leaked earlier and caused the rally, and everything got priced in. So the only "unexpected" thing seems to be the deal on the haircut. We still need to see if it is enough, however. But right now it is hard to say. I am sticking to what I have, this rally was sharp, but the resistance area lays mainly above 1.40 (pivot point at 1.406, fibs above 1.40, and so on), and the price didn't touch 1.40 up till now. When you look at 30M the candle got long wicks. On H1 we will get similar setup if in next 10 M she does not rally. But, it is asian session, so who knows what may happen...?

ADD: just as I wrote it, she dropped. So, finally I had a good feeling that she comes back, at least a little.
  • #5,643
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:55pm Oct 26, 2011 9:55pm
well, Im in with 70 bucks to lose on this one.

Night all.
  • #5,644
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:13pm Oct 26, 2011 10:13pm
Quoting Classic5000
well, Im in with 70 bucks to lose on this one.

Night all.
damn it may start going up again in a bit
  • #5,645
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:19pm Oct 26, 2011 10:19pm
Greece is going to get a haircut, 100 Billion Euros and a baby sitter



Edit... Did Asia finally run out of dollars to dump tonight.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #5,646
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:22pm Oct 26, 2011 10:22pm
I realise these times we are in an alternate universe.
This is a default.
Secondly the greek people, hard to believe they will surrender.

edit: PK it sure looked like exhaustion. But this market is strange to say the least.

good night
  • #5,647
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:48pm Oct 26, 2011 10:48pm
Quoting foto
I realise these times we are in an alternate universe.
This is a default.
Secondly the greek people, hard to believe they will surrender.

edit: PK it sure looked like exhaustion. But this market is strange to say the least.

good night
I don't know if this looks like exhaustion. But I am sure it feels like exhaustion. Man, 2 200 pip whiplash movements in as many weeks. And 6 100 pip movements in 10 days. Oh my god, I need a chiropractor.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,648
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:52pm Oct 26, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting AaronWard
I don't know if this looks like exhaustion. But I am sure it feels like exhaustion. Man, 2 200 pip whiplash movements in as many weeks. And 6 100 pip movements in 10 days. Oh my god, I need a chiropractor.
Amen brother...how has this news not already been priced in...it barely burped up and didn't even hit 1.40. Any bull seeing this must be depressed.
  • #5,649
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:56pm Oct 26, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting chodd22
Amen brother...how has this news not already been priced in...it barely burped up and didn't even hit 1.40. Any bull seeing this must be depressed.
I don't think the bears are very happy. Only the pigs (scalpers) are happy.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,650
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:13pm Oct 26, 2011 11:13pm
my SL @3955

Im not sure about where it goes.. it looks like its accumulating which is actually a good sign to me, in an uptrend.

I may be totally off , anyways, but my target is 4230.. if its gonna turn down. id think first it may need to touch there maybe..
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  • #5,651
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:24pm Oct 26, 2011 11:24pm
Quoting drtorque
my SL @3955

Im not sure about where it goes.. it looks like its accumulating which is actually a good sign to me, in an uptrend.

I may be totally off , anyways, but my target is 4230.. if its gonna turn down. id think first it may need to touch there maybe..
You should bear in mind that 1.40 is a zone from hell. First of all, we are likely to see a massive sell off at 1.40. Second, if demand breaches 1.40 we are likely to see a 50 pip spike which will look very bullish but is really just a stop feeding frenzy.

This is not the place to establish a longer term position either long or short. Your odds of being stopped out are very high.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,652
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:25pm Oct 26, 2011 11:25pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
They did'nt come out with anything new, but morning news are filled with relief how Euro is now saved... c'mon! How gullible people are?
  • #5,653
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:26pm Oct 26, 2011 11:26pm
Did not realise taking 50% pay cut is good news On top of that, you give them 50% more to pay you back the 50% originally owed
  • #5,654
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:28pm Oct 26, 2011 11:28pm
EU Daily Outlook
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #5,655
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:39pm Oct 26, 2011 11:39pm
Quoting AaronWard
You should bear in mind that 1.40 is a zone from hell. First of all, we are likely to see a massive sell off at 1.40. Second, if demand breaches 1.40 we are likely to see a 50 pip spike which will look very bullish but is really just a stop feeding frenzy.

This is not the place to establish a longer term position either long or short. Your odds of being stopped out are very high.
sounds very logical.
i keep a very close stop (3955 as I said)
but im not gonna be surprised if it goes up there to 4230..
if I add to the position, I try to catch a last minute before takeoff rather than a lowest point in the pullback, and if price goes up as I wanted, I carry the stop as close as possible the B/E.
my original cost is .13895-3900 as seen in the chart. then i added at 3957 as seen in the above post w my chart.

itll sound a classic but I find it too stressful for myself to sell the tops or buy bottoms, ie sniper deal.. i know many ppl can do quick money like that, but what i do is quick loss LOL

above style of adding works better for me, b/c I believe we're in an uptrend. I cant call an 800 pip move a correction. to someone else it maybe a correction though, not gonna deny that. depends on the trading style.
  • #5,656
  • Oct 27, 2011 12:09am Oct 27, 2011 12:09am
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  • #5,657
  • Oct 27, 2011 12:12am Oct 27, 2011 12:12am
Quoting AaronWard
.... if demand breaches 1.40 we are likely to see a 50 pip spike which will look very bullish but is really just a stop feeding frenzy.
if it charges like a bull, smells like a bull, looks like a bull....might just be a bull.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #5,658
  • Oct 27, 2011 12:19am Oct 27, 2011 12:19am
Quoting The Fool
if it charges like a bull, smells like a bull, looks like a bull....might just be a bull.
Yup... or a USD bear... which are really the same thing.

But... if it drops something... you might not want to eat it...

Edit: watching today's PA... which for the last couple of hours seems to me all about bulls methodically setting up a break of 1.40 for london open...It seems hard to imagine they wont succeed.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #5,659
  • Oct 27, 2011 12:22am Oct 27, 2011 12:22am
Quoting iqyu5an
[i]We have highlighted in bold the important bits.

Note that while the statement says in point 12 that the notional discount is 50%, the way that the discount functions really equates to a 30% haircut (not touching the Troika or ECB debt haircuts under the "invite" to take haircuts). This will be seen as inadequate by markets.

Also note the contradiction inherent in points three and four. Plus note that point 8 implicitly means more cuts will be necessary if the present austerity makes Portugal and Ireland miss...
.
not euphoria follower
  • #5,660
  • Oct 27, 2011 12:55am Oct 27, 2011 12:55am
Morning guys.

PT why do you think Germany was profiting?

T

Quoting PipTrapper
..nd over again while Germany was profiting and Greece was bleeding. Now they real..
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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