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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #5,321
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:27am Oct 26, 2011 11:27am
Quoting TheSwede
I guess everyone is flat and thus I take the opportunity to ask this.
We have been discussing on how they won't produce anything that is near enough today at the Euro meeting, but what would be sufficient to satisfy the markets?
- Expanding the EFSF?
- Eurobonds?
- Increase legislation that allows EU to set taxes in the member countries (Property etc)
- ...
Hehe, good question. Maybe if someone knew, he could save EU. For example I would be partially satisfied if they didnt raise Tier 1 of basel to 9% but let it stay at 8%, haircutted Greece by 60%, Italy and rest of Piigs met austerity plans, they announced fiscal union, and I could come up with some more. But even then I would sell, as although these plans could revive europe in long term, short term is already facked up and there is nothing they can do.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,322
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:28am Oct 26, 2011 11:28am
Quoting TheSwede
How do you identify a swing high (FIbs and PA?)
its like a V swede.. ill show u here.. like a pendulum sort of, when the candle in the middle juts out wiht a high or low greater than the one preceeding it or after it...
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #5,323
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:30am Oct 26, 2011 11:30am
Quoting TheSwede
I guess everyone is flat and thus I take the opportunity to ask this.
We have been discussing on how they won't produce anything that is near enough today at the Euro meeting, but what would be sufficient to satisfy the markets?
- Expanding the EFSF?
- Eurobonds?
- Increase legislation that allows EU to set taxes in the member countries (Property etc)
- ...
Nothing short of pulling a rabbit out of a hat is going to fix the euro crisis.
Even if they come up with some magic plan that the markets love, once the focus is away from the debt crisis, they will start focusing on the underlying economic fundamentals. As the economic picture for Europe worsens (it has already started and it will continue), a rate cut by the ECB will become more and more expected and priced in to the Euro pairs. Therefore, no matter what happens, the Euro will slide.

I am flat because I do not want to be underwater by even one swing higher. Just because it is going down does not mean that the big boys won't bid it up a bit in order to get a better sell price.

Price is still hovering around the rising channel support.
I will be waiting for a clear break downwards and then a swing high to retest the channel support or a nearby support like 1.3780 from the underside as resistance. On PA confirmation, I will start shorting.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,324
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:34am Oct 26, 2011 11:34am
Quoting TheSwede
I guess everyone is flat and thus I take the opportunity to ask this.
We have been discussing on how they won't produce anything that is near enough today at the Euro meeting, but what would be sufficient to satisfy the markets?
- Expanding the EFSF?
- Eurobonds?
- Increase legislation that allows EU to set taxes in the member countries (Property etc)
- ...
A more active & direct involvement by the ECB along the lines of the Fed might do it, but Merkel at least officially & in public is dead against this so that's not really a runner at this stage ...yet.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #5,325
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:39am Oct 26, 2011 11:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
Nothing short of pulling a rabbit out of a hat is going to fix the euro crisis.
Rofl, much better than my answer.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,326
  • Edited 11:56am Oct 26, 2011 11:45am | Edited 11:56am
TheSwede,
For whatever it is worth. To save the Euro wil take an expanding economy.
The reason the debt loads are so overwhelming is because the debt was put in place during a good time and then easily serviced.

Weak economic circumstances make the debt load unsustainable.

All the stimulus was put in place to buy time for the economy to heal. (This we see as the financial engineering mechanism's such as the EFSF)
That has not occurred. For example I think the number for Ireland is that current GDP is 20% below 2007 levels.
We are faced with economies imploding from debt service, thus the chronic potential for catastrophic default.

Europe must address the growth problem in some way or other to , and I do not use this word lightly as I think it will happen, "Protect" its own interests.

To Protect Greece is an option. It already is a ward of the state. But if they choose that option it is the first step towards reigning in the impact of unrestrained Globalization.

In Socialistic Europe, it is a real possibility.

edit: and no everyone is not flat. I added to my USD/Cad long on the second hourly test of the 1.01 level I remain short the Euro/USD through all of this. Did get antsy this morning with the break of 76.00 level on USD Index

And I may be very wrong on the Cad as the Euro/Cad had a big reversal bar and keeps selling down.
  • #5,327
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:46am Oct 26, 2011 11:46am
Can someone explain to me the importance of pivot points? I notice the price seems to turn nicely on those price points. Trying to see if there is a way I can incorporate that into my trading with the stochastics and moving averages. Thanks.
  • #5,328
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:56am Oct 26, 2011 11:56am
Take a look here: http://www.babypips.com/school/forex-pivot-points.html

Quoting nyfx718
Can someone explain to me the importance of pivot points? I notice the price seems to turn nicely on those price points. Trying to see if there is a way I can incorporate that into my trading with the stochastics and moving averages. Thanks.
  • #5,329
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:56am Oct 26, 2011 11:56am
Quoting nyfx718
Can someone explain to me the importance of pivot points? I notice the price seems to turn nicely on those price points. Trying to see if there is a way I can incorporate that into my trading with the stochastics and moving averages. Thanks.

Pivots work like all technical mumbo jumbo. As long as traders use em, they work. I mostly use pivots when market is in uncharted zone, after huge drop or arise, as when people have nothing to hold to, they stick to fibos, pivots, MAs, blah blah blah.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,330
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:57am Oct 26, 2011 11:57am
Quoting CommercialB
A more active & direct involvement by the ECB along the lines of the Fed might do it, but Merkel at least officially & in public is dead against this so that's not really a runner at this stage ...yet.
Not sure if you caught it or not but the prospect of ECB involvement as a backstop for the EFSF and bond purchasing is now dead.

Merkel made sure of it by including it in the motion which was voted in the Bundestag (lower house) today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Merkel....html?x=0&.v=4

The motion passed by German lawmakers states that the EFSF cannot be financed through the ECB and with a leveraged EFSF, the central bank will no longer need to buy bonds on the secondary market.

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,331
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:00pm Oct 26, 2011 12:00pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Pivots work like all technical mumbo jumbo. As long as traders use em, they work. I mostly use pivots when market is in uncharted zone, after huge drop or arise, as when people have nothing to hold to, they stick to fibos, pivots, MAs, blah blah blah.

T.
You know the rule: If it works, don't blahblah it.
  • #5,332
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:03pm Oct 26, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting AFXFin
You know the rule: If it works, don't blahblah it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,333
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:06pm Oct 26, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Merkel made sure of it by including it in the motion which was voted in the Bundestag (lower house) today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Merkel....html?x=0&.v=4
Hmm, I missed this as well. I wish I had olive pickers to whimp so I could read news whole day, instead of sitting in office .

Anyway I considered ECB intervention very unlikely from start, because of monetarization of sovereign debt issues we already discussed.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,334
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:13pm Oct 26, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting nyfx718
Can someone explain to me the importance of pivot points? I notice the price seems to turn nicely on those price points. Trying to see if there is a way I can incorporate that into my trading with the stochastics and moving averages. Thanks.
Pivot points, if set up properly, work as good S/R. I set mine up based on the 1700 ET New York close, which is the time of the swap. For the EUR/USD the Mx pivots and PP work best.
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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,335
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:15pm Oct 26, 2011 12:15pm
Oil drops now trying to make lower low. EUR waits, but oil confirms that lack of "miracle news" will have "hammering disappointment potential". However, I need to add, that oil is driven down additionally by increase of crude inventories. So today it may be over-bearish compared to EUR.

On the other hand, a seloff in commodities should prop USD up somehow, correct?

My running short is in green and I am planning to keep it for some time. I will struggle to keep my oil short too (may get taken out by SL at BE), as I think both should make at least one more major drop today (or tomorrow, if Asia will pause it by dropping USD).

I will repeat it again, but DIE EURO DIE
  • #5,336
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:35pm Oct 26, 2011 12:35pm
And EUR shoot UP. Nah, still some struggle before the press conference...
  • #5,337
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:39pm Oct 26, 2011 12:39pm
please go down euro... pretty please?
Lets do this...
  • #5,338
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:54pm Oct 26, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting jcminvest
please go down euro... pretty please?
probably 1.39 will hold

ADD: This is normal harmonics. It has to test the support turned resistance that it broke so violently.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #5,339
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:57pm Oct 26, 2011 12:57pm
I wish I wasnt so patient. One could make a fortune here. I still didnt get clear confirmation of a downtrend, althought these moves suggest hard that market is crumbling.

Btw., remember intervention at 366x zone guys.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #5,340
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:58pm Oct 26, 2011 12:58pm
double spinnng tops on m5 strike at 3900 supply. im entering with a sell scout.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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