I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
- #4,902
- Oct 24, 2011 1:17pm Oct 24, 2011 1:17pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hi Guys, great thread & credit to PT & rest of you for the quality of your TA & FA and just as important the good will with which it is imparted..it's a great help to many less experienced like myself and long may it last.
Can anyone tell me why it is that the holders of Greek bonds eg French/German banks etc, are prepared to accept "voluntary" haircuts of such magnitude, initially 21% and now possibly 50% / 60% or whatever, when such haircuts are nothing short of outright default and should constitute a credit event and would normally be insured?
By accepting the initial 21% haircut, they would be somewhat assured that 21% is it because it comes with knowing that the bond issuing sovereign can still seek financing on the primary open markets. Now the govs want the banks to take a 60% haircut and the banks have offered 40% so they will probably compromise at 50%. From the bank's perspective 50% on a voluntary swap is much better than a CDS as a CDS is a disorderly default with unknown downside risks such as contagion to other periphery countries, whilst a voluntary swap is a controlled restructure with much less risk of contagion.
I don't know all the benefits associated with a controlled voluntary swap other than the obvious I already mentioned but clearly the banks are in favor of it.
Hope this helps
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #4,903
- Oct 24, 2011 1:18pm Oct 24, 2011 1:18pm
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
Price just broke support on USD index... Long position is in effect! Good luck
On what TF.On daily it is about to come into long term support and a nice demand zone around 76.10
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #4,905
- Oct 24, 2011 1:24pm Oct 24, 2011 1:24pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #4,906
- Oct 24, 2011 1:38pm Oct 24, 2011 1:38pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,928 Posts
Observation is the path to discovery.
This thread is what it is because of posters like you who appreciate the way it is and want to keep it that way
Modest to the end PT!
This is a good question. Obviously a bank facing default on the bonds it holds is in a position to trigger a CDS... From the bank's perspective 50% on a voluntary swap is much better than a CDS as a CDS is a disorderly default with unknown downside risks such as contagion to other periphery countries, whilst a voluntary swap is a controlled restructure with much less risk of contagion...
Hope this helps
Cheers
PT...
CB
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #4,911
- Oct 24, 2011 2:36pm Oct 24, 2011 2:36pm
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
I think we'll have an opportunity for a long entry within the close of the hour
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
Can ya hold off on the longs long enough so I can make enough to pay for my coffee and cigarettes today
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
- #4,913
- Oct 24, 2011 3:02pm Oct 24, 2011 3:02pm
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
Lol, I think by the way things are looking I have no choice... Your request has been granted
LOL
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #4,914
- Oct 24, 2011 3:39pm Oct 24, 2011 3:39pm
@PT
Now that we are after hours I thought I'll spam the thread with some questions regarding that you analyse H4 from different brokers with different that have different times that the 4H candle start and ends. This is one reason I don't trust the 4H candles a whole lot. We are not necessarily looking at the same candle (that goes for daily and weekly also even though they don't differ as much as 4H). Patterns are not the same as well as trendline and so forth.
And on to the questions!
- Do the result of your analysis differ a lot when done on different brokers
- Do you trade patterns on H4 or do you just rely on trend lines and resistances?
- Any other oddities that you have came up on doing analysis on different H4 charts?
Well thats it for now.
Now that we are after hours
I thought I'll spam the thread with some questions regarding that you analyse H4 from different brokers with different that have different times that the 4H candle start and ends. This is one reason I don't trust the 4H candles a whole lot. We are not necessarily looking at the same candle (that goes for daily and weekly also even though they don't differ as much as 4H). Patterns are not the same as well as trendline and so forth.And on to the questions!
- Do the result of your analysis differ a lot when done on different brokers
- Do you trade patterns on H4 or do you just rely on trend lines and resistances?
- Any other oddities that you have came up on doing analysis on different H4 charts?
Well thats it for now.
- #4,915
- Oct 24, 2011 4:01pm Oct 24, 2011 4:01pm
I know that I am not PT, but I think, that some very strong patterns will give similar hints even on different platforms. For example, shooting star on one H4 may look like bearish engulfing on other. Both are bearish (If I did not mess up the names 
) So I think the fact that different platforms use different timezones is not that problematic. Of course there is a probability that someones H4 chart will look different, and maybe the bullish / bearish pattern will be unnoticeable. But out of four possible set ups, at least half should give similar signals, and the other two would be neutral (perhaps).
And keeping that differences between H4 charts in mind, when I put trendlines, I pick the lowest rising trendlines and the highest falling trendlines. This way I pick "the worst option" and avoid premature jumps. Or, I would, If I could read charts better, and was patient enough. Okay, Hope you get what I am all about
ADD: Did you notice, that correlation between EUR and other risk assets is getting sort of weaker? Oil for example, seems to be rising in almost-straight-line up, while EUR keeps getting beaten down when it gets too high. And the risk assets price no longer reflects every EUR drop&dip (as it did some time ago) - some just get ignored. Does it mean, that EUR and global risk-on risk-off start to get separated from each other? Aka, "the Eurozone crisis will be contained and world economy won't fall into recession because of it, so as long as US data look good hopium for all at half price!"?
) So I think the fact that different platforms use different timezones is not that problematic. Of course there is a probability that someones H4 chart will look different, and maybe the bullish / bearish pattern will be unnoticeable. But out of four possible set ups, at least half should give similar signals, and the other two would be neutral (perhaps). And keeping that differences between H4 charts in mind, when I put trendlines, I pick the lowest rising trendlines and the highest falling trendlines. This way I pick "the worst option" and avoid premature jumps. Or, I would, If I could read charts better, and was patient enough. Okay, Hope you get what I am all about
ADD: Did you notice, that correlation between EUR and other risk assets is getting sort of weaker? Oil for example, seems to be rising in almost-straight-line up, while EUR keeps getting beaten down when it gets too high. And the risk assets price no longer reflects every EUR drop&dip (as it did some time ago) - some just get ignored. Does it mean, that EUR and global risk-on risk-off start to get separated from each other? Aka, "the Eurozone crisis will be contained and world economy won't fall into recession because of it, so as long as US data look good hopium for all at half price!"?
- #4,916
- Oct 24, 2011 4:12pm Oct 24, 2011 4:12pm
Blobik you sound like PT
Seening the same thing with EUR/USD as you noted and this I have seen before we got the turnaround at 1.493. In the end of the run up we started to get large pullbacks after the stops were run. Something like today. Stops run in the morning and then a 130 PIP drop and now we didn,t have enough to take it back above. Guess everyone is waiting for wednesday.
Seening the same thing with EUR/USD as you noted and this I have seen before we got the turnaround at 1.493. In the end of the run up we started to get large pullbacks after the stops were run. Something like today. Stops run in the morning and then a 130 PIP drop and now we didn,t have enough to take it back above. Guess everyone is waiting for wednesday.
I know that I am not PT, but I think, that some very strong patterns will give similar hints even on different platforms. For example, shooting star on one H4 may look like bearish engulfing on other. Both are bearish (If I did not mess up the names
- #4,917
- Edited 4:24pm Oct 24, 2011 4:13pm | Edited 4:24pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jan 2007 | 3,555 Posts
- #4,919
- Oct 24, 2011 4:39pm Oct 24, 2011 4:39pm
Of course there is, but have no idea where or when
Is there any exchange point where I can replace "talk like PT skill" with "trade like PT skill"?
But, speaking seriously PT is the master, I am a newbie
- #4,920
- Edited 4:57pm Oct 24, 2011 4:43pm | Edited 4:57pm
Of course there is, but have no idea where or when
Maybe at least I won't destroy my account completely. Well, If I manage to catch the great fall (and If there will be such fall) then perhaps my account will get some breathe
ADD: And she tries to stand up again, like a Phoenix from ashes... Don't break her dream just yet, lets all short at 1.40