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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #4,881
  • Oct 24, 2011 10:40am Oct 24, 2011 10:40am
1.3940 being tested again
Will it break and hold this time?

mmm that popcorn is delicious. I'm getting fat though. Time for this pair to decide before I fall over and can't get up.

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,882
  • Oct 24, 2011 10:43am Oct 24, 2011 10:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
1.3940 being tested again
Will it break and hold this time?

.
question of the day. personal opinion: it will be broken
As Above, So Below
  • #4,883
  • Oct 24, 2011 10:46am Oct 24, 2011 10:46am
my opinion, just watch PA.
breaks or holds, we cant really tell NOW. nothing is certain before the event happens. i am thinking of deceleration, but gold and euro have been managing momentum of buying orders realy firmly. we are quart in the supply, this current m15 candle could be decisive of what price would like to do next, so i think im goign to watch first. i already have a short underwater, lets see whats going to happen.

Now we have a rejection/indecision wick. this closes like this, we need to see the next candle. if the pinocchio scenario hits, it looks like to give same sort of result last time out. this is profit taking of bulls currently, seeing what is next could be key.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #4,884
  • Oct 24, 2011 10:46am Oct 24, 2011 10:46am
Quoting bumapatria
that made a demand zone in the process. nice double bottom, i would wait for 4 am gmt time. cycle's half of 90 bars (45) is around 3-4 am from the double bottom's first and second rejection lows.
euro ignoring everything, charts, fundamentals, no other option but to follow price action and watch naked chart...
As Above, So Below
  • #4,885
  • Oct 24, 2011 10:52am Oct 24, 2011 10:52am
More then likely at this point the market is taking in new buyers at the high, who will probably get stuck. At some point it needs to walk the dog, after all there is only so much money to go around.
It's easy to be humbled but hard to be humble.
  • #4,886
  • Oct 24, 2011 10:57am Oct 24, 2011 10:57am
i believe no, sir tashkent. Everything has a clear fundamental and technical and psychological perspective to it.

gold testing mid-angle once more, loss of bullish momentum, break highly possible, euro will probs follow as well.

30 mins. 30 mins till possible whatever reaction. most likely bearish in my opinion. 12.5 degrees from last swing low is there, and if there are any moves at all countering this bullish wave, i say its going to be in 30 mins. 2 m15 bars.

lets see.

forgive my sell on the euro, i left it open since last week's support break at 3831, no tp only stop loss, now i have set a take profit in case price ever reaches there.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #4,887
  • Oct 24, 2011 11:00am Oct 24, 2011 11:00am
I recall a discussion earlier last week where somebody mentioned similarities between 2008 and now.
Here is the USD Index weekly chart.
Notice the areas highlighted with white ellipses and the yellow dashed lines signifying support and resistance of a correction we had in 2008.
I won't say any more as I don't want to speculate. Just pointing out another similarity.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #4,888
  • Oct 24, 2011 11:05am Oct 24, 2011 11:05am
Quoting bumapatria
i believe no, sir tashkent. Everything has a clear fundamental and technical and psychological perspective to it.

gold testing mid-angle once more, loss of bullish momentum, break highly possible, euro will probs follow as well.

30 mins. 30 mins till possible whatever reaction. most likely bearish in my opinion. 12.5 degrees from last swing low is there, and if there are any moves at all countering this bullish wave, i say its going to be in 30 mins. 2 m15 bars.

lets see.
i am with you
now it looks like time to short
As Above, So Below
  • #4,889
  • Oct 24, 2011 11:14am Oct 24, 2011 11:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
I recall a discussion earlier last week where somebody mentioned similarities between 2008 and now.
Here is the USD Index weekly chart.
Notice the areas highlighted with white ellipses and the yellow dashed lines signifying support and resistance of a correction we had in 2008.
I won't say any more as I don't want to speculate. Just pointing out another similarity.

.
Similarities, at least watching daily charts, have come to an end if today's close is well over 1,3875 (50 SMA). Altough I still a bearish bias, short term charts don't look bearish IMHO. Likely we will see this 61,8 fibo before the sell off. I have a litle short at current levels and will add more at this fibo.

Time will tell

saludos!
  • #4,890
  • Oct 24, 2011 11:16am Oct 24, 2011 11:16am
inflection point in motion.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #4,891
  • Oct 24, 2011 11:26am Oct 24, 2011 11:26am
He's back!
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #4,892
  • Oct 24, 2011 11:41am Oct 24, 2011 11:41am
Wednesday

Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,893
  • Oct 24, 2011 11:41am Oct 24, 2011 11:41am
Which 61,8 fibo? the one from 1.4548 to 1.3144?

Edit: Its almost the same as the 50% from 1.4939 to 1.3144
1.4038 vs 1.40091

Quoting josechu
Similarities, at least watching daily charts, have come to an end if today's close is well over 1,3875 (50 SMA). Altough I still a bearish bias, short term charts don't look bearish IMHO. Likely we will see this 61,8 fibo before the sell off. I have a litle short at current levels and will add more at this fibo.

Time will tell

saludos!
  • #4,894
  • Oct 24, 2011 11:48am Oct 24, 2011 11:48am
Quoting TheSwede
Which 61,8 fibo? the one from 1.4548 to 1.3144?
Yes, Sir. In my chart (Ninjatrader) is 1,4013,

(maybe could jump up to 1,4066-1,4080 where SMA200 and R1monthly pivot meet)

however, I'm don't know what's gonna happen!!!
  • #4,895
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:07pm Oct 24, 2011 12:07pm
Quoting PipKiller
Wednesday

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTN6r...eature=related
Lol. Nice one.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #4,896
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:18pm Oct 24, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Lol. Nice one.
Yea I'm flipping bored today. I think I'm going to go back to work on my office remodeling.

Morgan Stanley is recommending a Buy on E$.... only to 1.4060 on summit deal
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #4,897
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:30pm Oct 24, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
The old jewish rule. Forgive and forget. Quite nice idea to restart economy after some time.

Btw I still need to laught to term "haircut of 60%". Thats bankrupt for gods sake.

T.
Hi Guys, great thread & credit to PT & rest of you for the quality of your TA & FA and just as important the good will with which it is imparted..it's a great help to many less experienced like myself and long may it last.

Perhaps I may "contribute" in my own way by asking a question which has puzzled me and may be of interest to others. Can anyone tell me why it is that the holders of Greek bonds eg French/German banks etc, are prepared to accept "voluntary" haircuts of such magnitude, initially 21% and now possibly 50% / 60% or whatever, when such haircuts are nothing short of outright default and should constitute a credit event and would normally be insured? Not only would that help their own bottom line but would also lessen the imminent recapitalization requirements of the euro banks by EU sovereigns & EFSF etc by shifting some of the problem over to such insurance companies, eg kicking the can right across the pond to AIG or such like? ..EU quite good at kicking cans around the place . I know I've obviously missed something here and would be great if some of you could put me straight. Thanks
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #4,898
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:32pm Oct 24, 2011 12:32pm
Hmm, so I come back and see, that 1.394 - 1.395 seems to be next resistance. I think that finally moving through 1.390 means the bears will wait for "all-important level 1.40", as one analyst tends to say .

Just as I started writing, we got a rejection But I guess that getting back below 1.39 is now not very probable (today and tomorrow). It was defended for a long time, and now should be tough to break as well.
  • #4,899
  • Oct 24, 2011 1:00pm Oct 24, 2011 1:00pm
Price just broke support on USD index... Long position is in effect! Good luck
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #4,900
  • Oct 24, 2011 1:02pm Oct 24, 2011 1:02pm
Who all are drooling to start shorts on euro?
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