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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #290,981
  • Oct 21, 2011 2:19pm Oct 21, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting _BBKing_
hello all
hope everyone today went good.
gu moved good pips.

im holding now a short position 5945 n 5900...

bit worried about but stop loss is anyway in safe account area.
i will probably close it few minutes before market closing time, lost or profit doesn't matter (unless i see it goes very good...)

have a good weekend you all
bybye
have a good weekend. i have my short at 5944 and i decide to hold it till it is stopped (my s/l at 6055), but if it will break down 5850 then i will move it b/e, let's see how it will go next week
  • #290,982
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:09pm Oct 21, 2011 5:09pm
Hello fellow traders - as I mentioned the other day. I have stepped aside from Cable as I am positioning for a longer period trade with Natural Gas which will be taking up my capital to trade other instruments. We are approaching heating season and this is the time to be long Natural Gas, you just have to be able to time things right - as with any trade. But with Natural Gas it is ultra important to be very accurate as it can leave you homeless if you are wrong and keep thinking price should move in a certain direction.

I am posting an updated chart from my previous post. This chart is showing how price action is developing from my entry point. Notes on chart tell you everything about entry and info regarding chart patterns and Candlestick formations. It also provides information on Volume Spread Analysis.

As mentioned before - this information can be applied across all financial instruments. I have chosen to step aside from Cable for now as I see a very large profit potential with Natural Gas. I am trading the December Contract month - so this is not the front month so we have until November 27th for price to move up nicely for December delivery. I am expecting price to move up to 4.20 to 4.30 at least and possibly 4.40 - 4.50. If it does it will be a very Merry Christmas.

I wish everyone a great weekend.

Cheers,

Faller.
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I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #290,983
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:52pm Oct 21, 2011 5:52pm
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Attached Image
  • #290,984
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:56pm Oct 21, 2011 7:56pm
The monthly chart for gbp/usd shows a 4 year downtrend from the all time high at 2.1143 (Nov 2007) to the present. We see a low formed at 1.3500 (Jan 2009) with a correction upward that failed below the white 50 fib at 1.7041 (Jan 2009) , where it reversed back to the downtrend but made a higher low at 1.4229 (May 2010), where it began an upward consolidation to a lower high at 1.6745 (April 2011), failing to reach the previous swing high at 1.7041. It then resumed the long term downtrend to current short term support at 1.5270, on Risk Aversion market sentiment. A reversal of sentiment to Risk Appetite ( Risk On) has driven this currency pair to a yellow 5 sma retrace on rumors, confidence in the B.O.E.'s handling of their situation, and a possibly false hope of the Eurozone fixing their problems. Kicking the can down the road may stabilize markets for another month or two and see a bull run. Or not. Flip a coin at this point in time.
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  • #290,985
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:57pm Oct 21, 2011 7:57pm
I zoomed in on the chart to see the wedge formation, and the momentum indicators all agreeing up. The current monthly candle is an inside bar at this point with another week to go until it closes. Risk Appetite Sentiment will break through the yellow 5 sma resistance (1.6045) to test the white 38 fib at 1.6412, while Risk Aversion Sentiment will drive it down to retest the green 22 sma at 1.5770 again. A break there takes it to the open price at 1.5572.
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  • #290,986
  • Edited 4:07am Oct 22, 2011 3:26am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting ovaforty
I zoomed in on the chart to see the wedge formation, and the momentum indicators all agreeing up. The current monthly candle is an inside bar at this point with another week to go until it closes. Risk Appetite Sentiment will break through the yellow 5 sma resistance (1.6045) to test the white 38 fib at 1.6412, while Risk Aversion Sentiment will drive it down to retest the green 22 sma at 1.5770 again. A break there takes it to the open price at 1.5572.

finally seeing what im seeing

1.59 was always going to be tested
  • #290,987
  • Oct 22, 2011 4:20am Oct 22, 2011 4:20am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello all
hope everyone today went good.
gu moved good pips.

im holding now a short position 5945 n 5900...

bit worried about but stop loss is anyway in safe account area.
i will probably close it few minutes before market closing time, lost or profit doesn't matter (unless i see it goes very good...)

have a good weekend you all
bybye

Heloo BB,

This is my first post with this name, I hope you are happy with the number of pips you have been last week.

This is my analysis for next Monday. My expectations pivot, to the next monday is 586x. And if the bottom number is 5895, it will go to 6000.

Cheer,
  • #290,988
  • Oct 22, 2011 6:06am Oct 22, 2011 6:06am
Quoting screwup
Heloo BB,

This is my first post with this name, I hope you are happy with the number of pips you have been last week.

This is my analysis for next Monday. My expectations pivot, to the next monday is 586x. And if the bottom number is 5895, it will go to 6000.

Cheer,

based on what?

dailly is bulllish, weekly is bullish? but then again 15895 is almost certain obviously 1.59 needs to be tested but theres nothing in the charts to show price can go here..

want to explain why ?
  • #290,989
  • Oct 22, 2011 6:08am Oct 22, 2011 6:08am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment

Attachment

Attachment

zone is not random infact it was very significant..look at your weekly chart..area corresponds to weekly pin high..area tested and held, bring buyers into market establishing the upmove..if it didnt hold price certainly would be looking to break the monthly low
  • #290,990
  • Edited 6:40am Oct 22, 2011 6:15am | Edited 6:40am
may be just simple thought that there is no straight line brother .. not more

let time tell us the real ......... my imho

at the moment yes we're so bullish in daily / weekly. but at lower TF say 8H we could see little rejection around 596x/7x

I just closed my long around 592x for 200 pip last night ( gmt+7)

next week is week 4 of october... let see how the monthly close for sure.

just 2 cent

Quoting nAVIN2007
based on what?

dailly is bulllish, weekly is bullish? but then again 15895 is almost certain obviously 1.59 needs to be tested but theres nothing in the charts to show price can go here..

want to explain why ?
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not euphoria follower
  • #290,991
  • Oct 22, 2011 6:40am Oct 22, 2011 6:40am
I will be buying at 5860. If price does not get there, buying the Top Trend long confirmation signal on the 15 min charts, targeting at least the daily 200ema,
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #290,992
  • Oct 22, 2011 6:46am Oct 22, 2011 6:46am
Move to 200ema then thinking 1.65 or so beyond.
Quoting Ill-b-back
I will be buying at 5860. If price does not get there, buying the Top Trend long confirmation signal on the 15 min charts, targeting at least the daily 200ema,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #290,993
  • Oct 22, 2011 7:20am Oct 22, 2011 7:20am
Quoting nAVIN2007
zone is not random infact it was very significant..look at your weekly chart..area corresponds to weekly pin high..area tested and held, bring buyers into market establishing the upmove..if it didnt hold price certainly would be looking to break the monthly low


infact you've missed the point, l wrote "random" because l was being sarcastic, nothing to do with the monthly chart, the r turned s zone that prices created is exactly to the left of the buy entry


heres another one for you, another random entry



Attached Image
  • #290,994
  • Oct 22, 2011 7:22am Oct 22, 2011 7:22am
Quoting iqyu5an
may be just simple thought that there is no straight line brother .. not more

let time tell us the real ......... my imho

at the moment yes we're so bullish in daily / weekly. but at lower TF say 8H we could see little rejection around 596x/7x

I just closed my long around 592x for 200 pip last night ( gmt+7)

next week is week 4 of october... let see how the monthly close for sure.

just...
yes this is why i traded a 16 month chart..to much noise..we will see 1.65, next week will be interesting
  • #290,995
  • Oct 22, 2011 7:24am Oct 22, 2011 7:24am
Quoting redsword11
infact you've missed the point, l wrote "random" because l was being sarcastic, nothing to do with the monthly chart, the r turned s zone that prices created is exactly to the left of the buy entry


heres another one for you, another random entry



Attachment

typical of me..
nice illustrations of price movement
  • #290,996
  • Oct 22, 2011 7:30am Oct 22, 2011 7:30am
GBP/USD – Bias (W1): Slightly Bullish; Bias (D1): Slightly Bullish; Bias (Overall): Slightly Bullish

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=382

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381
  • #290,997
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:44am Oct 22, 2011 8:44am
The weekly chart for gbp/usd shows a hammer candle. We have no wick on top, signifying that longs are holding their positions over the weekend. We see that the candle closed above the aqua colored 50 fib. The 14 candle mom and 10 candle mom are still below their respective 100 levels (bearish), but pointing up. The yellow 5 candle momentum indicator has broken up above its 100 level, indicating short term bullishness. The blue one candle mom is beginning to show a divergence and a possible pull back to 1.5885/1.5850 before resuming upward.

There is a seasonal pattern of bullishness from mid October to December/January for the U.S stock markets.
Market Sentiment will drive this pair, depending on Risk Appetite or Risk Aversion.
On the Global bigger picture of the economic situation, we have seen China GDP at 9%, Positive news releases from the U.S. Philly fed, PPI, etc, and unemployment is not increasing, but is still too high. Too much Govt regulation has kept U.S. employers from expanding payrolls, and they are running lean with good earnings.
The AUD should retain its value over the other currencies in the future.
Risk appetite will weaken the USD. Risk aversion will cause USD buying.
The money flows out of U.S. treasuries and into Equities, Commodities, etc., on Risk Appetite, thus weakening the USD.
QE 3 talk has also weakened the Dollar.
The GBP found bids after the BOE's institution of their measures.
We have central bank meetings this coming week, as well as the European
summit to deal with their situation.

As for the weekly chart for gbp/usd, we see cluster sma resistance provided by the yellow 23 fib (1.5980), the blue 14 sma (1.6022), the brown 55 sma (1.6045), the green 22 sma (1.6082), and the yellow 61 fib @ 1.6100.

1.5796 is the 50% fib on this weekly candle. 1.5849 is the weekly pivot on this candle.

My strategy for this week:
monitor Market sentiment
Risk appetite = buy dips
Risk Aversion = sell rallies.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #290,998
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:14am Oct 22, 2011 9:14am
ignore the very top line


my target projection is 1.7..looking at monthly chart..lets see
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  • #290,999
  • Oct 22, 2011 12:21pm Oct 22, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
ignore the very top line


my target projection is 1.7..looking at monthly chart..lets see
Not now my friend
Still hold ur long?
  • #291,000
  • Oct 22, 2011 2:05pm Oct 22, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
ignore the very top line


my target projection is 1.7..looking at monthly chart..lets see
so ambitious and aggressive !!!
can you tell me more why the monthly chart indicates for 1.7?? i see it is still a downtrend and the price right now is around 50% fibonachi for the drop from 1.66 to 1.53
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