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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #3,721
  • Oct 19, 2011 9:54am Oct 19, 2011 9:54am
foto... I would reply at length, but the is watching.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,722
  • Oct 19, 2011 9:56am Oct 19, 2011 9:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Man that flattered me a lot. Thanks for that. As I dont want to mislead you, I will introduce myself further.
I am only bachelor in economics and I am still learning. Learning macros for five years now, but I still see it as too few. Thats why I debate here, because I want to evolve. And I think I will never stop evolving as this science is unfinished so I can spend my whole life evolving not only myself, but evolving macroeconomics as a science.

T.
I never even had an economics course in high school so you're way ahead of what I have taught myself.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,723
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:03am Oct 19, 2011 10:03am
Quoting Smart man
I see on the market - big deals. Likely to buy futures traders actively. The only thing that worries me - it's 1,381 to 1,383 - it may be resistance.
Good observation, SM. My guess would be that we will see 1.40 by friday. May I enquiry you on what setup (feed, software) your are using for your futures chart? I'm actively trying to find a good level two data feed.
“Nothing great in the world has ever been accomplished without passion.”
  • #3,724
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:04am Oct 19, 2011 10:04am
AW
OK I will depart. Was killing time and maybe getting some perspective. Past hour not much going on. Euro is trying to stage a recovery after the possible reversal.

Am looking for these USD index support levels to hold and maybe the USD to gain some strength as the day proceeds.

If after all the events coming forth in Europe, still make the Euro King, than I will lick the wounds and re-evaluate if something is being missed.

Regards to all posters
  • #3,725
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:08am Oct 19, 2011 10:08am
Quoting PipKiller
I never even had an economics course in high school so you're way ahead of what I have taught myself.
best way to learn is to tell us we are wrong. Or at least that is exactly the way I learned.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,726
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:08am Oct 19, 2011 10:08am
There were a few questioning why the increase in PPI was not reflected in CPI.

Here is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) explanation of how they differ http://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppicpippi.htm

The bottom line is the CPI is used for wage increases and cost of living increases and is 'manipulated and tweaked' to give the lowest increase possible. Taking this into consideration, the PPI would be a better indicator of inflation than the CPI.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,727
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:15am Oct 19, 2011 10:15am
Quoting spzd
There were a few questioning why the increase in PPI was not reflected in CPI.

Here is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) explanation of how they differ http://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppicpippi.htm

The bottom line is the CPI is used for wage increases and cost of living increases and is 'manipulated and tweaked' to give the lowest increase possible. Taking this into consideration, the PPI would be a better indicator of inflation than the CPI.
Thanks for that, Spzd. It certainly clears up the confusion and concern inferred in my previous post.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,728
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:26am Oct 19, 2011 10:26am
Quoting AaronWard
best way to learn is to tell us we are wrong. Or at least that is exactly the way I learned.
I don't know about that. It sounds more like it's the best way to make myself sound dumber than I already am. LOL
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #3,729
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:29am Oct 19, 2011 10:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks for that, Spzd. It certainly clears up the confusion and concern inferred in my previous post.
Your welcome PT. I myself wondered about this many times in the past. Once I figured it out a few years ago, I basically gave little attention to CPI. But as you notice the politicians and talking head 'experts' hardly ever mention PPI, as it's not in thier best interest to speak the truth.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #3,730
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:35am Oct 19, 2011 10:35am
Quoting AaronWard
PT

ah, sucks, I thought I was going to slip a bit of China debate in here when you weren't looking.

TDT -- this is the link to the article about the law in the US senate.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...25#post5023944
Phew, what a hoard of posts. Dunno if I absorbed it all right. This is what i got out of it.

Not only you, but more posters there think this law will bring trade war. I disagree with that (And I hope I am right), because everyone knows Yuan is undervalued. Yea, it appreciated a bit, blah,blah, blah. But Yuan appreciates only as high as Communist party allows. And it is still not enough. I dont see a trade war coming as both nations realize they cant live without each other. Thats leads to the second part of that link. No supply chains will be broken as no trade war is coming. Noone wants 1930s again.

Third. It seems you predict it will somehow bear stock markets down. Why should it bear stock markets down when US is proexporting economy and this bill is helping their exports? Shouldnt be stock markets boosted? Y, i know you said more cash is going to US companies than to Chinas employees, and I agree, but it is not US companies we are talking about, but US "employees", who arent spending coz they got no jobs.

Fourth. You say there already is a law which could be used in case some nation is manipulating exchange rate. But what if you cant prove China is manipulating that rate, but you just know? I know it is something like, you are guilty because I say so, but seriously, do you trust China commrades? They wont give you any information, they block everything they can. Even if they prove their currency is not undervalued, you just cant trust em. Man I live in a country where communists ruled for 50 years, and there were occasions, when election results came out even before people were actually electing. That is called propaganda.

Damn thats hard subject. I would prefere to go out, drink some beer and talk about it outside. It is hard to fit all thought in one post.

And sry PT, i know its NY session, I just wanted to finish this post before I get out of my work. Last post regarding Chinas, I will PM Aaron next time.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,731
  • Oct 19, 2011 10:44am Oct 19, 2011 10:44am
I've popped in a few times and I must say nice thread PipTrapper
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,732
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:04am Oct 19, 2011 11:04am
Quoting Patience
I've popped in a few times and I must say nice thread PipTrapper
Thanks Patience.
Hang around. Anybody who appreciates this thread is in a good position to make an equally appreciated contribution

ADD: Welcome, by the way and please be sure to read page 1. It is self explanatory
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,733
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:14am Oct 19, 2011 11:14am
I come back home, and what I see? That my luck is way bigger than my skills If I was able, I'd exit this trade few times already.

Oh, but wait, now i have a dilemma... Take profit or let it run (cannot scale out, it's my minimum bid already).... Lets sit to analysis. Perhaps back it up with a coin toss

EDIT: Okay, to add sth constructive - was the fall backed by any news? Because I didn't see any trigger... It looked just like pure exhaustion of bullishness...
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  • #3,734
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:21am Oct 19, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Blobik
I come back home, and what I see? That my luck is way bigger than my skills If I was able, I'd exit this trade few times already.

Oh, but wait, now i have a dilemma... Take profit or let it run (cannot scale out, it's my minimum bid already).... Lets sit to analysis. Perhaps back it up with a coin toss
If there's only one thing I've learned in this business, it's to book my profit while it's there in front of me.
I could have taken a nice short today but because I had stuff to do and couldn't babysit it, I stayed out and lived to fight another day.
If I had a trade like yours going right now, I would at the very minimum book 50% of the profit with a stop loss, but I would probably take it all now. The end of the NY session is effectively here. Not much gonna happen until Asia now and that's usually when they dump truckloads of USDs
Just my thoughts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,735
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:26am Oct 19, 2011 11:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
If there's only one thing I've learned in this business, it's to book my profit while it's there in front of me.
I could have taken a nice short today but because I had stuff to do and couldn't babysit it, I stayed out and lived to fight another day.
If I had a trade like yours going right now, I would at the very minimum book 50% of the profit with a stop loss, but I would probably take it all now. The end of the NY session is effectively here. Not much gonna happen until Asia now and that's usually when they dump truckloads of USDs
Just my thoughts...
I agree with PT. In particular I have had bad luck with moving my stops to preserve profit. I would close it now and look to enter tomorrow where you would think about moving your stop.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,736
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:28am Oct 19, 2011 11:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not much gonna happen until Asia now and that's usually when they dump truckloads of USDs
That's a good point! Thanks PT for you opinion

I will attempt to wait a little bit (but gonna quit before Asian open - who knows what they will do?) and try to catch some local dip. Worst case scenario, my profit will be few pips less... It is still great that the pips are green
  • #3,737
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:30am Oct 19, 2011 11:30am
TDT -- wthy don't you post your reply at the end of the article in the comment section. It will show up on my profile and I will come back to you tomorrow. That way we can keep this thread focused on the Euro. Also, I really don't know what I wrote, so I should have a look through before I come back to you.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,738
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:30am Oct 19, 2011 11:30am
Quoting Blobik
That's a good point! Thanks PT for you opinion

I will attempt to wait a little bit (but gonna quit before Asian open - who knows what they will do?) and try to catch some local dip. Worst case scenario, my profit will be few pips less... It is still great that the pips are green
Yep, I must say that is always great
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #3,739
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:32am Oct 19, 2011 11:32am
Quoting PipKiller
I don't know about that. It sounds more like it's the best way to make myself sound dumber than I already am. LOL
If you tell us what you think, and we if think you are dumb...we will point it out.And you will have a chance to examine what you think. Much better to look dumb than to be dumb. Knowledge is taken, not given. (well given and taken). Besides, knowing what we think is not as important as knowing why we think it.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #3,740
  • Oct 19, 2011 11:33am Oct 19, 2011 11:33am
Quoting spzd
There were a few questioning why the increase in PPI was not reflected in CPI.

Here is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) explanation of how they differ http://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppicpippi.htm
Ok, I am examining it right now and I found interesting part:

"In the PPI, a new model is priced when the producer stops selling the previous model. Most items in the CPI are priced at the outlet until they are no longer available for sale"

That basically means, that if there is no consumer spending, CPI wont change as old goods just stay at shelves.

T.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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