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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #2,081
  • Oct 19, 2011 3:36am Oct 19, 2011 3:36am
Hi,

I`m not dead yet, I still draw a lot of pitchforks and still loose a lot of pips on doing stupid things.
But sometimes market behaves like a train on its rails, fo example EuroYen yesterday. Many oportunities to make pips, short and long positions.
I have ignored the big pitchfork (maroon color). I am not sure if I should to, but threre was no reaction on these lines.

Regards,
Twisted
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  • #2,082
  • Edited 7:57am Oct 19, 2011 6:09am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting Twisted
Hi,

I`m not dead yet, I still draw a lot of pitchforks and still loose a lot of pips on doing stupid things.
But sometimes market behaves like a train on its rails, fo example EuroYen yesterday. Many oportunities to make pips, short and long positions.
I have ignored the big pitchfork (maroon color). I am not sure if I should to, but threre was no reaction on these lines.

Regards,
Twisted
Well Twisted,

Not dead yet huh...good for you, but don't like the idea of the yet...but I think I got what you meant. . If you don't quit, one day it will all just click...usually it does.

It is a good sign when you know you have done a stupid thing. Yesterday I did something not too great either....details are on the blog.

Anyway, if a fork doesn't seem to be in tune with the market, try another. Your other fork and WLs seem to be doing a better job with price. They look very good...nice touches.

Keep pressing...don't give up. I think my battle now is from the subconscious side...fear of being wrong etc. Sending signals turns it up a notch. Will keep working on that for sure. Trading by yourself is one thing, putting calls out there ahead of price is another. Other emotional muscles come into play (finding that out as I go ).

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,083
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:33am Oct 23, 2011 10:33am
Hi again,

Hope you all had a good week. Lots in the news....be watchful.

Weekly wrap-ups are now posted.

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,084
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:14pm Oct 27, 2011 10:14pm
Well...

We had a big move on EU today and some yesterday. Placed some very quick scalps...been reading much about some trading psychology topics. Hope most of you were not short holding on just "knowing" it would come down.

Can't believe October is almost over. Gotta prepare for November now. New start.

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,085
  • Edited Oct 30, 2011 7:48am Oct 29, 2011 9:07pm | Edited Oct 30, 2011 7:48am
Hello all,

Got an early start on the weekly wrap-ups this weekend. They are now posted on the blog in addition to an excerpt on fear by Jiddu Krishnamurti. I have entitled it Freedom From The Fear Factor. Thought some points made would help traders overcome this "trading demon".

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,086
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:16am Nov 1, 2011 11:16am
Was able to do a quick trade and send a signal on Gbp-Usd this morning. Price made it to the first target and turned on a dime. Took about 15 pips before the bulls showed up again. Not sure about the second target, though it is still a possibility. Charts from earlier today are attached.

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,087
  • Edited 7:58pm Nov 5, 2011 7:13pm | Edited 7:58pm
Hello all,

Just stopping by to let you know that weekly wrap-ups of the 10 pairs (plus the metals Xau-Usd and Xag-Usd) that I follow on the blog are now posted.

Clearing my schedule some more this coming week. Let's see if I can get some more signals fired!

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,088
  • Edited Nov 13, 2011 11:12am Nov 12, 2011 6:50pm | Edited Nov 13, 2011 11:12am
Hello all,

Just a quick post to let you know that the weekly wrap-ups will be posted by noon EST on Sunday.

Not much trading this past week. Will see how things go this week.

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,089
  • Nov 14, 2011 12:19am Nov 14, 2011 12:19am
Thought this looked good for a sell. Entered with a scout and was up about 12 pips. Closed as it started to bounce. Second chart was current at the time of the posting. Keeping an eye out for a signal on this one.

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,090
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:15am Nov 20, 2011 8:15am
Hello all,

Weekly wrap-ups are now posted. Be careful as you trade this week.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,091
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:09am Nov 27, 2011 10:09am
Hello traders,

Managed to get a few trades in this week...very short pops in between the week's activities. The weekly wrap-ups are now posted on the blog.

Hope we get some good runs as we enter the last month of this year...and that I can get on board as well .

All the best.

FX4


P.S. Hope U.S. traders had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday this past week.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,092
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:41pm Nov 27, 2011 3:41pm
It looks like we are doing the same thing...I'm just one thread over myself, fairly new to forum banter, but have been trading for a while now. I use a little bit of volume analysis in my trading to help me decided whether or not to take it at the line the first time...sometimes it helps get me in a little earlier instead of waiting for the test/retest setup. Anyway was just looking for an opinion here...this is one of the trades I took last week.
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  • #2,093
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:45pm Nov 29, 2011 4:45pm
Quoting bayfisherman
It looks like we are doing the same thing...I'm just one thread over myself, fairly new to forum banter, but have been trading for a while now. I use a little bit of volume analysis in my trading to help me decided whether or not to take it at the line the first time...sometimes it helps get me in a little earlier instead of waiting for the test/retest setup. Anyway was just looking for an opinion here...this is one of the trades I took last week.
Hi Bayfisherman,

Like how you use a few added concepts to confirm your entry. Have heard different things about using volume in FX? Does your broker's volume give you a good indication of what the market is doing? Do you find it consistently reliable?

Think your trade went very well .

Thanks for posting,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,094
  • Nov 29, 2011 4:49pm Nov 29, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hi Bayfisherman,

Like how you use a few added concepts to confirm your entry. Have heard different things about using volume in FX? Does your broker's volume give you a good indication of what the market is doing? Do you find it consistently reliable?

Think your trade went very well.

Thanks for posting,

FX4
Try to stay to the higher time frames 1hr 4hr to get the general picture...on those types of setups I'll trail the market up say under the 30 min bars with sell stops as I see it approaching my lines...little bit wider stops with a little less leverage usually make a fairly safe entry...just posted some new lines if you care to take a look.
  • #2,095
  • Edited 5:03pm Nov 29, 2011 4:53pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting bayfisherman
Try to stay to the higher time frames 1hr 4hr to get the general picture...on those types of setups I'll trail the market up say under the 30 min bars with sell stops as I see it approaching my lines...little bit wider stops with a little less leverage usually make a fairly safe entry...just posted some new lines if you care to take a look.
So you use the volume indicator on H4 and H1? I look at those as well, looking for entry on M15 or M5. Will stop by your thread and take a look later on or maybe when I'm back to trade a bit.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,096
  • Edited 6:42pm Nov 30, 2011 5:53pm | Edited 6:42pm
Quoting bayfisherman
It looks like we are doing the same thing...I'm just one thread over myself, fairly new to forum banter, but have been trading for a while now. I use a little bit of volume analysis in my trading to help me decided whether or not to take it at the line the first time...sometimes it helps get me in a little earlier instead of waiting for the test/retest setup. Anyway was just looking for an opinion here...this is one of the trades I took last week.
Hello again Bayfisherman,

Just thought I'd follow up with the addition of "other tools". Below are two charts, one with a fork and one without. Notice the bullish divergence on the lagging indicator below price action. On the first chart, it looks like a confirmed buy. Of course the thin, gray horizontal line could be a warning that price could fall there.

The second chart has a fork added which I think gives the trader more informaton. The break of the fork says a whole lot to fork traders who know what to look for where. This fork has been telling fork traders that the upward momentum is getting weaker, and possibly when and where to look for a tell to confirm the sell. Many times forks will "expose" a potential trap for traders: in this case a trap to go long.

Point I am trying to make: It is very risky to trade just off of these lagging indicators with the messages they send. CONTEXT of the trade is soooo important. The divergence looks promising...but WHERE is it in the scheme of things? Price breaking the L-MLH of the green fork sends a weightier message.

I know you don't use these exclusively...you do look at forks. I'm saying this for the benefit of other traders as there is a tendency to place emphasis on "good tools" only without taking into account the time and place. I am sure every tool or method has benefit. The key is knowing which tool is better where, and which tool is better for what bit of information. The beauty of forks is that they frame price action and send a consistent message in a dynamic environment. Forks when applied "correctly" give price action context, helping the trader to make sense of what is happening.

Take care,

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,097
  • Nov 30, 2011 6:58pm Nov 30, 2011 6:58pm
is going to show itself at the end and beginnning of a move your are right in the middle of price action here...not the place to be trading divergence...the fork you've drawn there is a shorter term fork for scalping it is not located at significant swings...you are in the middle of a range there...don't mean to be contrarian but I think what you've draw there is not very realistic as far as fork pivots and using divergence
  • #2,098
  • Edited 8:05pm Nov 30, 2011 7:32pm | Edited 8:05pm
Quoting bayfisherman
is going to show itself at the end and beginnning of a move your are right in the middle of price action here...not the place to be trading divergence...the fork you've drawn there is a shorter term fork for scalping it is not located at significant swings...you are in the middle of a range there...don't mean to be contrarian but I think what you've draw there is not very realistic as far as fork pivots and using divergence
I do understand your point about divergence there, but traders who look for that as a sign to trade may fall into a trap. Some reverse divergences will show up to indicate the continuation of a move.

Divergence is going to show itself at the end and beginning of a move...that is the ideal place to get in. However, determining that it is the beginning or the end of a move can only be determined conclusively after the fact. So, this divergence, though it is in a range, "could" mark the continuation of the move upward. What if price broke through the gray HL area and kept going?

The fork is not at significant swings for sure. Nevertheless, it can still give insight into what is going on because each set of pivots will tell their own story. Don't know if you are a longer term trader or trade only swings, but I find that forks are useful across the board.

In a dynamic market, whatever the market gives that a fork can describe is realistic. This price action gave a divergence set-up in a ranging market. Just trying to be flexible and open-minded with the possibilities of price action . Might not be the most optimum or ideal picture overall given the ranging movement at the time, but there is still some benefit that can be of assistance to a trader...mho. Just some of the crazy terrain traders find themselves in and have to navigate through.

Thanks for the comments.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,099
  • Nov 30, 2011 9:24pm Nov 30, 2011 9:24pm
you are right that people see to much and use these indicators at the wrong time...the divergence after the fact is true, but usually if you have good money management it can work well, even if you get it wrong the first time you might catch a breakeven stop or two. Most of the time it is a leading indicator...price needs to make a new swing low or high though for it really to work well...those bars are just temporarily running out of steam there, they are not really forming any well defined swings there...in my short there you can see price fell away and formed a swing low and tested the same price area at a lower RSI reading or whatever indicator you want to use stoch. momentum, etc. You are exactly right about framing your trade with these forks...once people start to see how effeciency works within the fork, price will fall off as it runs out of steam or diverge with momentum, then they will better know how to use divergent indicators...I like that you are trying to educate people I feel we need to give back as well...I appreciate the discussion. It always helps me to say it out loud. Hope the charts make sense.
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  • #2,100
  • Dec 1, 2011 1:29am Dec 1, 2011 1:29am
Quoting bayfisherman
you are right that people see to much and use these indicators at the wrong time...the divergence after the fact is true, but usually if you have good money management it can work well, even if you get it wrong the first time you might catch a breakeven stop or two. Most of the time it is a leading indicator...price needs to make a new swing low or high though for it really to work well...those bars are just temporarily running out of steam there, they are not really forming any well defined swings there...in my short there you can see price fell...
Your charts make perfect sense, especially the first one!!! I think divergence can provide good tells when in context with price action which is framed well by the forks. Fibs can also come in very handy . Many times I have seen something that looks good for a long let's say, but, after doing analysis with the forks, the picture changes. Gotta see those forks!!!

Thanks for the follow-on discussion. It should provide some good food for thought for readers, especially those trying to use only lagging indicators.

Have a good trading day!

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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