EurAnalysis

Here's a zoomed in version...

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this is mine, hope the chart shows up , im not great with computers

US Producer Price Index (m/m) next up at 8:30am EST Expecting 0.2% vs 0.0% last month

UPDATE: PPI up 0.8% and Core PPI up 0.2%. Core PPI was expected at 0.1%
No significant market reaction but this signals US consumer inflation.

looking at the 1hr chart i may have to either get long depending or wait till , 3780 and see what price action we have, we now have bullish divergence on the 1 hr chart, but these runs have been small lately, hmmmm

As promised. For those brave enough to look into my warped mind. What I am seeing on the charts for a possible swing trade long back towards the 1.39 - 1.40.

Note that I have not placed any limit order yet. I am still looking at a possible intraday or scalp short for the moment and that can change quickly. Futures are still bearish and there is a lot of medium and high impact events still to come today as well as european bond auctions IIRC. Right now I'm doing the safest thing I can do..... Sit on my hands and wait. I an looking at the 1.3766 - 1.38 supply area you see on the 60 for an intraday or scalp short. May consider a retrace of a breakout either way at the consolidation level that;s building right now.

For anyone new that doesn't understand my trading style, I am a supply and demand technical trader that likes to take advantage of news, economic reports and sentiment to try to pick where I think big money is jumping in and has orders that still havn't been filled yet. Some call it jumping in front of a bus and catching a falling knife and institutions say you can't predict tops and bottoms when it's exactly what they are doing.

This is how I trade, everyone trades differently. I try to keep other popular trading systems like support and resistance lines, fib numbers, channel trading and trend line trading in mind because when they all come together at the same time it can make for a great entry and a great trade. I also keep an eye on the fundamentals and market sentiment, I don't trade fundamentals but you do need to understand them and have the big picture and market sentiment can run you over and stop you out faster than you can pull the trigger.

Weekly - 50 ema back to bullish after only a few weeks bearish. Price has been pretty much sideways for 3-4 years and slightly in a down channel. Current price is in the lower 50% between a supply and demand level (see dotted line) this is a signal for me to look for a possible swing long and not fight demand. Price is strugling to get above the 50 ema and the 50% fib also so I need to be careful where I enter and look lower.


Daily - This is where I'm looking at levels to trade. - Price is struggling at the support and resistance line around 1.3679 which is also a small demand zone from 1.357 - 1.368, next area down I am looking around the S/R line at the 1.342 which coincides with a demand zone from 1.324 - 1.342


For targets I am looking at the recent pivots around 1.39 and the supply zone above around 1.399


240 Minute - Heres where I'm looking for my entry. - Up Channel support has been broken and price is slightly below resistance and into the 1st demand zone from 1.356 - 1.368, this is the second visit to this zone and price has driven deeper into it. I really like the look of the 2 zones highlighted below that are fresh and never touched. The current zone deserves a look too for a decent entry below current price. keeping risk sentiment and fundamentals in mind. You just never know when the bulls will get their Hookah refilled with hopium.


60 Minute - How I pinpoint entries to minimize risk and maximize my position size to only 1 or 2% of my risk capitol at the beginning of the week. I only ever have one position on at I time so I make maximim use of it. Primarily Eur/USD is what I trade. I don't need to jump all over the place with other pairs, I will trade a couple others and watch even more but primarily just trade the E$

1st demand level below I see at 1.356 - 1.3595, may consider entry a tad higher around 1.3615 SL would be below the lowest low of the level by adding the average spead + a few pips of wiggle room to that price.

Next I'd keep an eye on the resistance line at 1.3519 which is also the 50% fib of the last bull run. Also close to the round # of 1.35. I only enter on a retest off a strong bounce on a resistance or fib level with stop again set the spead + a few pips of wiggle room below the low made before the bounce.

I really like the 2 demand levels highlighted below the 50% fib where price strongly rallied away. Ist one also comes in at the 61.8% fib about 1.344 and below at the round # or 1.34

hey guys heres that vertical line im talking bout.
no valley is made yet, seems bearish.

i am going for 2 and a half hours so maybe either i send small scout or not trade.

i dont know if ben has anything like keywords at 6 minutes of his speech


oops silly me... thats the gold tick hahaha

Good morning
5 minute and 1 hour charts:
If the 3708 area holds then there is a possibility of 3638 area being tested. There is a double bottom formation on the 5 min.Above 3708 could take price to 3757 which is just above the 1 hour head and shoulders neckline for a test of the neckline before further decline.As long as 3708 holds tho, then I think 3738 is the next area to be tested.

Hey PT, your thread is growing nicely

ok given what im looking at now, and forgive me for not being diligent and looking at everything on the calendar(i just woke up). my prediction is this and like all magic shows this is for entertainment purposes only at this point.. we get a nice little rally taking us up to gap resistance at 3780 area, that should take us to bernanke's little non sense, then as usuall we reverse our love all things usd and resume intra trend back down, ill have you know that no animals were hurt at any point in my magic act.. good luck to everyone

Hihihii, what a surprise. Who could expect rising inflation while Fed is pumping 400 Bn into economy? Kinder surprise indeed.

T

EU Forecast/Illustration might be like this

USD bears started acting before release. premature.

Bernanke has painted the Fed into a corner as further easing cannot be explained away as no effect.
Will sit long USD thru the adversity as 1.3700 resistance is holding for now

order flow is up on lower tf, im guessing that 3700 will hold, im long with little risk

Hey PT,

I just noticed the nice perky pair on the daily. They're much nicer than the lopsided hangers you were looking at a couple weeks ago

very nice bullish divergence on the 15 minute tf and 1 hr

Seems like this thread become more popular than ever..many educated members coming here share and learn....very positive..very good

Gives new meaning to the term "Double Top"

Interesting move on the SP500 and Dax30. It's as if all the problems have disappeared. Glad I bagged that 110 pips this morning.

Now I will wait till NY open and see where it goes.

That's what I love to see. Working together

Keep It Up

Ya, I'm a retired Paratrooper. I try really hard to avoid bullets and you'ld be amazed at how fast you can move with 100 lbs of pack, food, water, body armor, weapon and ammo when the bullets fly.

Here's a shot of me and a shot of me going out on patrol with a Romanian sniper team around Kandahar Afghanistan. Those guys were great to work with, very good sodiers and I'd trust them with my life again.