EurAnalysis

Geithner opened his mouth.....what a piece of work that guy!

We very well could see the weekly 50% at 3912. Of course this is friday so who knows. I personally trade very little on fridays if at all.

Oh my
Lord forgive me for my sins.....

Good May from near Fort Bragg, NC. Home of the 82nd Airborne, Special Forces and Delta Force. Mess with the best, die like the rest.

PT, Gofer, Aaron. Thank you for the vouchers. It's an honor I don't take lightly. You all have taught me a lot the last few weeks, especially on the macro side of the coin. I had a very basic understanding and Y'all are taking my understanding of the fundamental picture much, much deeper.

I'm going to give a small lesson for a very simple basic trading plan I use and how I approach my trading day. When I deviate from my plan is when things usually go wrong. I am my own worst enemy. Hopefully it can help a new trader make a good plan that fits them or possibly help an experienced trader, enhance theirs with something they havn't thought of.

- Morning crisis control handled when Mama's car didn't start this morning - check
- Dogs fed and watered so they don't keep nudging my arm while I'm trading and typing - check
- Kid kicked off to school - check
- Had my Starbucks doubleshot Mocha - check
- Belly filled with groceries - check
- Have my head in the right space, objective, not biased, havn't taken any pain killers today. Not out to "revenge trade" even though I'm at a loss this week. It will come back if I trade my plan and get worse if I deviate from it.
- Physically, I feel pretty good today, no headache, arthitis isn't too bad. had some decent sleep. ( I only sleep 4-5 hrs and then I'm wide awake)

Fundamentals
- Economic calender - check
............ Earlier reports mostly better than expected
............ G20 Meetings all day today and tomorrow
............ 8:30AM, 9:55AM, 10:00AM, 2:00PM EST several high and medium impact reports coming out
- Futures - Check
............. Slight risk on this morning, indices, metals, oil higher, currencies mixed, bonds slightly down.
- News headlines - Check
............. Everyones beating the drum on hopes for eurozone with G20 meetings, Google smashing earnings estimates (expect tech stocks to lead the way higher with NY open), Mattel beating earnings estimates, The occupy Wall Street movement going global and Italy's Burlesconi confidence vote.
- It's "Freaky Friday" as Gofer put it. I'm looking for short term either intraday or scalp and be out and flat by NY lunch time if I take any trades.

Technicals
- My intraday and scalp long term charts are sceaming Buy me, but be carefull as price is bumping against supply levels. Look for price to dip before making an attemp at pushing higher. Price is near the bottom of an acsending channel that has been holding quite well so far this last week or so. 50 MA on both charts tells me to look long. Don't forget to look at daily weekl and even monthly chart levels too make sure you are not fighting against major supply or demand levels so you don't become a statistic.

Intraday HT chart (higher time frame)



Scalp HT chart

Here's how I analize my charts

I use multiple timeframe analysis for position, swing, intraday and scalping. I primarily trade intraday and like to swing trade and scalp. Not big on position trading, I simply don't have the patience for that.

Position Trading - I would look at the Monthly to identify trend, Weekly to identify supply and demand levels, daily to identify entry and the 240 minute to pinpoint precise entry to lower my risk.

Swing Trading - I look at the Weekly to identify trend, Daily to identify supply and demand levels, 240 minute to identify entry and the 60 minute to pinpoint precise entry to lower my risk.

Intraday Trading - I look at the 240 minute to identify trend, 60 minute to identify supply and demand levels, 15 minute to identify entry and the 5 minute to pinpoint precise entry to lower my risk.

Scalping - I look at the 60 minute to identify trend, 15 minute to identify supply and demand levels, 5 minute to identify entry and the 2 minute to pinpoint precise entry to lower my risk. I'm not scalping for 1-5 or 10 pips I risk 5-15 to make 15 - 45 @ 3:1 R/R

I want to pick up a scalp or intraday today, get in and get out flat for the weekend.

I see a possible nice trade on my scalp worksheet on the 15 developing with a demand zone price left quick hard and fast and near channel resistance. And a supply zone that has been tough to penetrate so far but is being repeatedly attacked....... will she hold or fail?????? nobody knows.



Now I drill down to the 5 minute to identify my entry, SL and TP levels



Now I drill down into the 2 minute to really pinpoint my entry, SL and TP levels to see if I can minimize the risk a bit from the 5 minute to maximize position size.



Next up, I calculate my position size based on the currencies value per pip, amount of pips risked, my maximim % of risk capitol I use per trade (usually 1-2% of my risk capitol)

I then place my limit order with SL and TP already attached as they are automaticly placed when my limit order entry is filled. I don't have to worry about being here when it does fill, I don't have to babysit the charts, I don't care if I lose power or internet. I am already protected.


This is a live trade, real money, not demo. Looking @ price right now since I started this post, there's a pretty good possibility it won't be filled and if I do I may adjust the target. This is a set it and forget it trade with a hard entry catching a falling knife and a hard target, all in and all out.

L - 1.3773
SL - 1.3762
TP - 1.3810

Risk 11 pips
Reward 37 pips
Ratio 3-1


That's basicly my plan and how I trade, enjoy.

The most powerful 15M candle in two days. Glad I talked about op twist and convinced myself to lose the bias and get long, quick 40 pips up, picked up 8 on the down move, back long and already a few more. SWEET, I think you guys are really helping me to stop being an idiot!!!

That said, I still hate the Euro

If it keeps taking out levels, 1.39275 could be next.

Eh, stupid chart, doesn't show the trend line above the screen, I will try and fix it, but the last high pop was Sept 14-15.

Edit. Thats better.

Hi PT, I should really thank you for creating this thread and maintaining it to the best. I am try to understand and grasp as much as I can but there certain terms which I am still not aware of . like PA, wave and some charts ..there is a lot to learn. Can you direct me to some resource i.e. a link or a even a book that may help me understand these terms and how to use diff. indicators as per my needs.

What do you people think will happen today in the next few hours considering all aspects will happen after its reached 1.3870 ? you guys are good.Keep up the work !


LF

Now thats some wicked PA

@PIPKILLER .. I am talking about the statement you mentioned which I have marked in bold. Risk is 11 pips. reward is 37 pips. No comment on the reward but its the decision of setting up risk i.e. 11 pips in your case.. Many times it happens that the price will reach at 1.3762 which is ur SL and then it will go up till 1.3810.. But your trade will get close at 1.3762.. So you end up at loss.. What do you say about this logic of mine.. May be I am missing something as am still learning.. but this is what creates prob for me when setting up SL. cant place SL so close the actual value.

Advice,
LF

Pipkiller

I'll make sure I don't mess with the best. LOL.

Only thing missing is your success/failure ratio.

Trade well and prosper.

Hello LearninForex,
PA (according to how I personally use it)is price action. Price action such as support and resistance (supply and demand zones) along with candle formations such as pin bars and doji's and how they react at certain price levels (support and resistance), also chart patterns and how price reacts within the patterns.

You may want to search google or babypips.com for candle formations, support and resistance.

Waves:
Waves are patterns the market creates in order to flow. The price doesnt go in a straight line. It forms waves. Take your curser on any chart and begin at the low point and trace upwards to the hi and back down to the next low, etc, then you will be able to get the idea of waves and how they are incorporated into support and resistance coupled with candle formations. You may want to study the ab=cd pattern to get a good example of waves and how and why they are formed. Keep in mind that a lot of people onthis thread have been trading for quite a while and sometimes we use abbreviations that a newer trader may not be familiar with such as PA (Price Action).

Here's one link that explains some of the common Forex (FX) jargon you see a lot.

You'll see us use a lot of abriviations too like

L - limit order
SL - Stop loss
TP - take profit or target
FF - forex factory
Fed - US federal reserve
BB or just Ben - Ben Bernanke chairman of the fed

Try out this site:
http://www.babypips.com/school/

Very helpful for newbies and oldies who need refresher course!

Someone posted a chart the other day with all of the patterns. I meant to print that out and forgot but that would be a great post to archive on page one maybe.

PipKiller,
Excellent post. I will book mark this so I can read it more in depth over the weekend. Thanks

Im off for now. I may check back a little later. Everyone have a great weekend!

If my SL is hit, I was wrong, can't be right all the time, it's impossible to do. I traded my plan, used good MM (money management) and my account lived to fight another day. Just roll with it, move on and look for the next trade.

I trade supply and demand levels with SL placed the spread+ 2-3 pips wiggle room below the lowest low of the level I want to trade. For a better understanding of how I trade watch Sam Seidens webinars. This is what works for me.

Hi LF,

Thanks for your encouraging comments. It is my pleasure to use this thread to give something back to a market that has given me so much over the last 10 or so years. I hope that many new and experienced traders get more out of it than I put into it

As for resources, here is something to start with.

PA = Price Action. Learn about price action and other trading strategies from here --> http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/

In order to understand how money flows in the market and why certain things happen based on political and economic factors, one first needs to understand how the markets are structured. I've posted this link before but I'll post it again here --> http://explains.cnbc.com/

Also, Raghee Horner from ibfx.com has published a fantastic ebook. I recommend this ebook to anyone who is looking for a more thorough understanding of how technical traders (such as Raghee herself) find a trading EDGE. It is well suited for beginners but even a seasoned trader may learn something from it. You can download it from here --> http://www.dailyforextradingedge.com...iles/ebook.pdf

The above will certainly keep you busy for a while so set aside some time to get this all done. If you don't have time for all of it, I suggest you read Raghee's ebook first.

Cheers
PT

That is a weakness of mine is keeping my journal and tracking my ratio.

Note to self, Effective immediatly. Straighten out and get a bit more disciplined before I get stuffed and don't know why. No excuse for me not being disciplined, The military beat it into me for 16 years.


Ohhhh nice. Just noticed that 1.3888 - 1.3935 level a few of us were looking at last night on the 240 minute held so far with an immediate 30 pip rejection.

Hit the ride up nicely, it would seem we should get a pull back to 1.383 and then retest the highs, a second rejection and it could be time to get real short. I have a small short position after riding the wave and selling at 1.3890, short from 1.387.

What do you people think will happen today in the next few hours considering all aspects after its reached 1.3880 now?


I asked from one and got so many people out there to improve my knowledge..sending link, posting definitions, explanations.. my hunger is increasing. Thanks so much all of you.. I am in the good company ! Appreciate it.


LF