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EurAnalysis

  • #2,641
  • Oct 14, 2011 6:11am Oct 14, 2011 6:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Sisse,
Thanks for your comments.

As for my claim of manipulation, I was simply referring to the central bank swaps between the Fed, BOJ and the ECB to provide foreign currency liquidity to the ECB in order to facilitate unlimited liquidity to euro area banks. On Monday something smelled rotten and I couldn't put my finger on it. On Wednesday it was confirmed that it was the cbanks.
Instead of explaining my view all in detail in this post, I will refer you instead to the post I made on Wednesday on this subject after I was taken by complete surprise.

-->...
Excellent I see.

I had my doubts that we were going to go in the spiral on dealers and stops are everything and order flow in M5 + + +,etc etc is the only reason for markets to move and the only players, etc...

With that clear that market manipulation comments was only about semantics I guess. in simple words the real movers and shakers step in the market.

Interesting point view. In my opinion was a confluence of FA factors on those lows (TA was very easy and clear ...a simple rejection of weekly swing low) but definitively the EZ announcing the "new deal" (Sunday) for November with the confirmation of EFSF votes (Tuesday, Weds) were the key particular trigger and momentum fueled by the first "good" NFP (before the fact obviously Friday before) that cleared the double dip fears in the US and the plethora of CBs supports across the board guaranteeing more "free money" that made stock market made the important rally we have seen.

On the correlated, Oil was particularly clear (Thursday before) and leading before the move, signaling the bottom and breaking back to sluggish economic growth and not recession levels.

IMO the meat of the move is done. Buy the rumor, sell the news is done. Now we need the actual details on the debt front and a good round of macro numbers ..a failure to deliver or more negative numbers will out us back on the lows ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #2,642
  • Oct 14, 2011 6:13am Oct 14, 2011 6:13am
EU Daily Outlook - Pre US Open

Slip little above..might be going up again till 1388 before turn south
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily White Version.png Size: 33 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #2,643
  • Oct 14, 2011 6:18am Oct 14, 2011 6:18am
Quoting AaronWard
PT

Have you thought about creating a subthread (or several) to preserve the posts you think are particularly important?

From time to time...several times a day... I see something that I think it really good and would like to be able to reference. Also, about once a day somebody shows up with a question and I think...you should really take a look at that article somebody posted a week or so ago. Also, there is advice on trading techniques, advice for beginners, technical systems, etc that are as relevant 3 years from now as they are now....
Hi Aaron,
Coincidentally I have been thinking about doing something to point members to resourceful postings but I don't have the time to dedicate to it during the week. Perhaps I will do something this weekend.
I was thinking of keeping it simple by editing post # 1 and placing a list of links to specific posts. That will probably suffice for now. I am not sure if I can create a sub-thread but I will certainly look into it.
Cheers and thanks for suggesting,
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,644
  • Oct 14, 2011 6:22am Oct 14, 2011 6:22am
Quoting sisse
...

IMO the meat of the move is done. Buy the rumor, sell the news is done. Now we need the actual details on the debt front and a good round of macro numbers ..a failure to deliver or more negative numbers will out us back on the lows ...

sisse
I am definitely in full agreement of your opinion
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,645
  • Oct 14, 2011 6:32am Oct 14, 2011 6:32am
Hi all.
Sorry I forgot to repost something I wrote on Buma's thread.
Here it is:

In my opinion, it's an area of extreme indecision.
Look at my H4 chart.

Bullish indies:
1. Stochastics are pointing up
2. Trend is bullish
3. Bull flag forming.

Bearish Indies:
1. MacD is showing bearish divergence
2. The highs fall into a major supply zone,
3. The tops have been riding down along the falling channel resistance

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-4h.gif Size: 22 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,646
  • Oct 14, 2011 6:41am Oct 14, 2011 6:41am
EUR is stronger because people likes colorful paper rather than only green paper.
  • #2,647
  • Oct 14, 2011 6:44am Oct 14, 2011 6:44am
Quoting joancb
EUR is stronger because people likes colorful paper rather than only green paper.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,648
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:18am Oct 14, 2011 7:18am
Quoting joancb
EUR is stronger because people likes colorful paper rather than only green paper.
And it is conveniently different sizes by denominations, which is interesting. You really don't feel like you are spending $7 with that little blue slip of paper. And the $1.4 and $2.8 coins, easy to drop along the way on a candy bar.

But seriously, this market is just riding that lower 1H/4H trend line, however it also isn't climbing above 1.383. Something has to give.
  • #2,649
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:21am Oct 14, 2011 7:21am
Quoting joancb
EUR is stronger because people likes colorful paper rather than only green paper.
Is that why the US wants the Chinese Yuan to appreciate. It is colorful too: red, brown, green, purple.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,650
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:25am Oct 14, 2011 7:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Aaron,
Coincidentally I have been thinking about doing something to point members to resourceful postings but I don't have the time to dedicate to it during the week. Perhaps I will do something this weekend.
I was thinking of keeping it simple by editing post # 1 and placing a list of links to specific posts. That will probably suffice for now. I am not sure if I can create a sub-thread but I will certainly look into it.
Cheers and thanks for suggesting,
PT
You might want to think of using some sort of basic categorization, and keeping a back up of your original post is a good idea as well. Sometimes things mysteriously disappear.

I would thank you for being a great guy and doing a wonderful job on this thread but...so many have done exactly that and I don't want to be repetitive. So I will just think it.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,651
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:34am Oct 14, 2011 7:34am
US September retails sales (m/m) better than expected at 1.1% vs 0.5% expected and vs 0.0% for August

Now I expect the high to be breached. Next stop 1.3875/80
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,652
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:38am Oct 14, 2011 7:38am
This is my first post here =)

My question, the news for the USD came out green, why is the market reaction on the EUR/USD the other way around?
(http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php)
  • #2,653
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:50am Oct 14, 2011 7:50am
I now see that price turned around back into the triangle (picture) and I'm wondering if I could get some feedback on my drawings.

Is it correct to say that the price is compressing and that we should wait for it to actually close outside the triangle before clicking on any buy-/sell button?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd-compressing.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #2,654
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:52am Oct 14, 2011 7:52am
Quoting AaronWard
They need it. Seriously. Euro banks need liquidity and they are doing that with USD loans. Some of these loans need to become Euros. So some serious buying pressure is going on.
Between this and operation twist, I think we have our answer. Because it wasn't well understood, twist was largely ignored by bears, but look at the timing and effect.

Announced the 21st of September, sell off. Implemented with first purchase Oct. 3, last day of the sell off. Plans were to purchase US debts throughout October, most recently yesterday. Excerpt from Bloomberg:

Purchases will begin Oct. 3 with the acquisition of $2.25 billion to $2.75 billion of Treasuries maturing between February 2036 and August 2041, according to a statement today from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the branch of the Federal Reserve System that implements monetary policy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...wist-plan.html

Unfortunately for bears, the October traunch only has $44 billion of $440 billion allocated. Some Fed governors have said this will have little to no impact, but others have likened the stimulative effect to a 50 basis point cut in interest rates. Both dollar negative. Combine that with another $400 billion as mentioned in loans to the world in dollars, and the effect is the same as printing money, dollars are out buying other currencies, driving them up and the supply of the dollar up so USD down.

The less understood and publicized part of operation twist, is that the Fed is "reinvesting" (invest = spend in Washington) all proceeds from the mortgages they hold. That calculates to about $2 billion per month, the same size as the original twist purchases on the 3rd.

How I missed this.....clearly these huge Fed operations are USD negative. Just look at the charts.
  • #2,655
  • Oct 14, 2011 7:54am Oct 14, 2011 7:54am
I will do a two parter here... PART 1
Longer term analysis:
Weekly chart:
Looking at the most recent swing lo to hi, I see the possibility of testing the 50% fib or even the trendline. Then, ranging between the 78.6 and the trendline forming a right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders pattern. At THAT point, we may see some major fundi's kick in, in order to activate the pattern (IF/WHEN it is formed).

Daily Chart:
As long as the daily 50%fib holds, my weekly analysis may not pan out exactly as anticipated and I will be thinking shorts but not anticipating a short to hold on to, maybe just 50 pips here and there, because a daily pullback is normal in order to pick up more buyers. Therefore, when I place a short order, I will be keeping the possible objective of the weekly chart in mind.
Attached Images
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #2,656
  • Oct 14, 2011 8:01am Oct 14, 2011 8:01am
Part 2

4 Hour:
Price has been trading beneath the mini channel for 7 - four hour candles. There is a very good possibility the price will test the channel trendline (blue) before making it to the weekly numbers mentioned. I.E. Picking up buyers on the test.

1 hour:
The hourly chart has formed 3 slightly lower hi's and is trading outside the lower channel (green) trendline. I suspect tight ranging until price either closes below the red trendline, triggering the 4 hr chart or closes above the green lower channel trendline triggering a long. Above 3838 and the weekly 50% comes into play.
Attached Images
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #2,657
  • Oct 14, 2011 8:03am Oct 14, 2011 8:03am
Quoting Pbh
Good morning to y'all

I wrote down my ideas and "bias" in a docx. here's the fundamental information. I got some charts with technical analysis in the document as well:

*For some reason I cannot attach the document, anyways...

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Tomorrow important news:
G20 meetings – All day ------
7:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.1%...
Excellent detailed analysis Pbh. Well thought out and explained.
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #2,658
  • Oct 14, 2011 8:04am Oct 14, 2011 8:04am
Yearly chart -- bull flag (very strong)
Monthly chart --bear channel
Weekly chart -- bull trend (very strong and though broken we are headed back)
Daily chart-- bear trend (very strong)
4H chart -- bull trend (very strong)

Sorry, no charts.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,659
  • Oct 14, 2011 8:11am Oct 14, 2011 8:11am
looking at the H1 chart, I see the formation of an inverse head and shoulders, although I also still see a bearish divergence that has not triggered yet and a huge supply zone above.

So if it makes it through the supply zone and the bearish divergence is still in play at the next resistance level, I expect a pullback down to possibly around 1.3750

Of course anything could change in the meantime

Let's see if this up move plays out first.

UPDATE. 1.3830 just popped

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 22 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,660
  • Oct 14, 2011 8:16am Oct 14, 2011 8:16am
UPDATE. 1.3830 just popped

"And she's climbing the stairway to heaven"
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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